FanDuel. After missing nine games with a broken leg, Isiah Pacheco worked his way back into the Chiefs lineup two games ago. Coming off a 7 and 14 carry performance, he once again looks primed to lead the Chiefs rush attack. Today, he should see opportunity for 15+ attempts against a Browns run defense that ranks 17th in DVOA (per FTN). The rub with this game though is the weather, with strong winds and rain expected. I see that affecting the Browns offense more, as they are predicated on downfield throws. This should allow the Chiefs to control the clock a bit more, giving Pacheco ample opportunity.

This Perils of Pauline act by the Chiefs, with one madcap escape after another, can't continue...or can it? The flip-side of the many miracle wins is that Kansas City has turned into a go-against supreme betting proposition. The Chiefs have now dropped seven straight vs. the line, which seems a near-impossibility for a team that has won outright in six of those seven games. As long as the Browns continue to battle, this shapes up like other Cleveland games we've seen at home with Jameis Winston at the helm, specifically upset wins over the Ravens and Steelers by the shores of Lake Erie. Another close KC win--but a Browns cover--would come as no surprise. Play Browns

There has been no greater frustration this season than watching the Chiefs consistently blow covers while winning games. What can I say? I'm a glutton for punishment. Another clear opportunity at doing just that comes Sunday at the Browns. There's a lot of talk about Cleveland being able to get consistent pressure on Patrick Mahomes; that will surely happen. However, including a circumstantial, weather-aided win against the Steelers three weeks ago, the Browns are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games with each of those losses coming by 9+ points. This pick was made Saturday before the weather came. That makes me far more hesitant, and I would not take this over -4, but since I'm already committed ... let's ride.

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the top conundrums of the season. Somehow they have a 12-1 record that has featured a bevy of close wins. Each of their last four victories has been by three points or fewer. They’ve also failed to cover in seven straight games. Take the Browns to give the Chiefs their latest battle and possibly even win outright. Grab the points with the home underdog.

Weather conditions are expected to impact this game. The Chiefs offensive line has struggled to protect Patrick Mahomes all season, and LT D.J. Humphries is doubtful to play with a hamstring injury. The Browns are Top 5 in the league in QB pressure rate. On a wet field against a weak O-line, I envision Myles Garrett putting Mahomes under duress and forcing him to scramble. Mahomes has cleared this rushing yards total in 7/13 games this season, and has a run for 10+ yards in 7/13 as well. We have seen how crafty Mahomes can be with his pump fakes and scrambles on 3rd down. I think a play on his rush yards makes sense here.

Not only was Pacheco over this prop line last week, but he was over in each of his first two games of the season, and he's literally had 14-plus carries in 12 of his past 14 games including the playoffs. His snaps went from 22 to 31, and another increase is likely this week. On the season the Browns have witnessed 21.1 carries per game against opposing RBs, but since they've lost Jeremiah Owusu-Koramorah to injury, that number has been 23.2 and in their past three games it's been 26.3 RB rushes per game. Tack on inclement weather expected in Cleveland on Sunday, and Pacheco should be in a position to hog handles.

I could see this being an over game, and the Browns move the ball one way - deep shots all over the place. Winston has thrown at least 40 times in every game except for one where he milked a lead in the snow. The Browns will want to keep scoring no matter what against this opponent with nothing to lose. Browns are getting separation from a multitude of pass catchers and Chiefs have holes all over their secondary. This is how you attack them.

The Chiefs luck will run out at some point, their street kickers will slip. This is a letdown spot. Browns can attack their sagging D deep and win at the point of attack. KC 2-3-1 ATS on road and Pat Mahomes is just 11-15-2 ATS as a road favorite of 4.5 points or more and just 2-8-2 in his last 12 such spots. KC RZ offense remains broken. I like James Winston to push the ball all over the field with nothing to lose. KC is 30th in passes of 25+ allowed the last 5 weeks. Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku will both be problem for them.

A year ago the Chiefs bottomed out and lost to the Raiders at home on Christmas day. This year they have wrapped up the division and damn near the 1 seed and played down to competition consistently. They have 1 of the worst big play defenses the last 6 weeks and Jamies will chuck it all over the place. Browns defense will exploit KC not having any OTs who belong in the NFL and Andy Reid will take an uber conservative approach and run ball and live to fight another day. This has letdown written all over it and Browns have been up for home games lately. Myles Garrett might have another hat trick in him. KC pass rush lacking.

The probability of the Chiefs winning games the way they have been this season is astronomically low. That said, this is a game I expect Kansas City to notch a much more comfortable win. Cleveland is a tough place to play, and the Browns have some talent on both sides of the ball. But at this point in the season, the Browns are very much a team that is looking forward to the offseason. I like Kansas City by a touchdown or more here.