Quite a matchup here. The Lions' multiple offense should have no problem scoring against the Bills, which are not built to handle such a dominant run game. Even if they do sell out in the trenches, Jared Goff is more than capable of hitting his big-time weapons over the top. Josh Allen has been immense for Buffalo, and his mobility will test Detroit, but all three of his losses have come on the road against playoff teams. The true difference maker here is the Lions defense, which returns three linemen as the entire team continues getting healthier late in the season. Detroit is a juggernaut.

Not overthinking this one. Potential Super Bowl preview. Betting on Josh Allen to ball out. He has gone over this combo pass + rush yards mark in 5 of his last 7 games. Allen thrives in dome stadium environments (like last week’s performance in L.A going for 424 combined pass + rush yards) and is 9-2-1 ATS in his career when playing indoors. Allen will see a good deal of man coverage against the Lions which he can exploit. The game total is set at 54.5, so I think it’s safe to assume we get a competitive game with lots of offense. I like Josh Allen to put up numbers in this one.

Khalil Shakir remains Josh Allen's most trusted and favorite target despite the Bills acquiring Amari Cooper. Shakir should flirt with a minimum of 75% route participation and he runs almost all of his routes exclusively from the slot. Not only does Shakir earn targets at an impressive rate, but he's been incredibly efficient with them this season and throughout his career. This looks like a great spot to back Shakir considering we're working with a massive 54.5 point total and the likelihood of increased passing volume provides Shakir tantalizing upside.

This looks like a great spot for Amon Ra Saint Brown and the Lions passing offense as a whole. First and foremost we're working with a gargantuan 54.5 point total in what should be an optimal game environment. We're also getting a sizable discount on this line as Saint Brown has had three consecutive quiet games (by his standards). Jared Goff has been incredibly efficient with a clean pocket this season and the Bills pass rush has been subpar. They've also been a mediocre coverage unit ranking 14th in EPA per dropback, in addition to 25th in PFF's coverage grade. With the potential for increased volume, this checks all then boxes for a smash spot for Saint Brown.

The Detroit Lions are a predominant single-high safety defense that opens up huge running lanes against opposing quarterbacks. Detroit has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards against quarterbacks this season. Josh Allen rushed for 54 yards at Houston, 50 yards at Indianapolis, and 82 yards at the LA Rams. I expect a big day for Josh Allen at another indoor venue. My model has this number at 47.

Since Aaron Glenn took over as Lions' defensive coordinator, no teams has allowed more quarterback rushing yards. Glenn's aggressive, man-heavy scheme opens running lanes for mobile QBs. Allen is coming off a shootout in LA in which he ran for 82 yards. In this potential Super Bowl preview, I expect Allen to rush for at least 40 yards.

The Bills have a seriously undersized front 7. They can't stop the run, at all, to begin with, and especially against an OL this big and with heavy personnel. I tend to think the Lions lean even more into the bigger back here against this opponent. They need to keep Josh Allen off the field. Expect a heavy load from the onset - as Montgomery leads the first drive - and he is also the closer in tight games. He has 14 or more carries in 3 straight home games.

The playoffs are nearing, which means Allen is running more and finishing drives on his own. Against this defense I especially expect him to. Allen has a rushing TD in 4 straight games and 6 total in that span. Allen has a rushing TD in 7 straight Dec games. That stretches back to the 2022 season. This game should have a playoff vibe and I expect Allen takes a playoff approach.

The best team in the NFL and highest-rated team with the Detroit Lions at home laying only 2.5 against the Buffalo Bills who are 10-3 with 3 losses coming on the road. It's a matchup of the top two scoring teams in the NFL with Detroit scoring 32.1 points a game and they also have the No. 2 offense averaging 394 yards per game. Detroit's unheralded defense allows 318 yards per game, 10th best in the NFL. They only allow 18 points per game. To me, Detroit is 2 points better than Buffalo on a neutral field and they get 2 or 2.5 for home-field advantage so the spread should be 4, 4.5, anything below a field goal is a gift. Detroit covers.

Styles make fights. The Bills D is light in the ass in the front seven and cannot hold up against volume in run game. Lions offensive line can take game over, as can two-headed monster in the run game. Dan Campbell is 13-6 ATS vs the AFC and 9-2 in the last 11. Jared Goff is 7-2 ATS at home vs the AFC as a Lion, covering on average by 11(!!) points. He’s covered 6 in a row by 5 points or more. Lions have rest advantage and home field advantage. Campbell is 22-10 ATS at home and has never failed to cover in 3 straight games before. After a very tough loss to Green Bay (-3.5), I like the Lions to bounce back here.