The Dolphins can flat out score -- especially at home -- and the Jets will be without their best defensive player in Sauce Gardner. I expect Miami to finish north of 30 points here, with Tua Tagovailoa having one of his best games of the season.

If we're going strictly off the eyeball test, it's pretty clear the Jets are counting down the weeks until the offseason. Sauce Gardner and Breece Hall are both out for New York, and the Dolphins have won three of their last four. Tua Tagovailoa is playing well, and the Jets' secondary is going to struggle to keep up with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jonnu Smith. I like Miami by 7+ here.

Tua Tagovailoa is the NFL's most accurate passer and could set a completion percentage record this season. And now he won't have to apparently worry about All-Pro Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. Tagovailoa has just two games this year where he threw a pick (granted he missed four).

Not only are the Jets expected to be without top running back Breece Hall -- already played a Braelon Allen prop -- but also All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner. Shoot, I might now have to play a third option on this game without Sauce on either Tua or Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins have won three of their last four and covered four of their last five and might be playing their best ball of the season trying to get a playoff spot. The Jets have lost three straight and eight of their last nine, the same goes for the spread. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine. This team is completely deflated, and they thought they would do something with Aaron Rodgers, but they failed miserably. They look defeated before the game starts. Even with Rogers, they have the 31st ranked off into 291 yards per game. And the Dolphins defense has been solid ranked No. 7 all season long allowing 311 yards per game. Two teams going in different directions. Miami to cover.

New York's Braelon Allen has only two TDs this season because he's the No. 2 tailback behind Breece Hall, but he's not expected to play Sunday. So the 6-foot-1, 235-pound Allen should absolutely get the ball near the goal-line if Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw a pick-six down there first. I can't wait until Rodgers just goes away to some peyote camp in Tahiti forever ...

The Jets are 31st in yards per completion to RBs, Tua doesnt push the ball downfield at all , throws the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage more than anyone else and pushed is 20+ downfield less than anyone else. That means a funnel for guys like Achane. He is over this in 4 of the last 6 games since Tua came back and over 50 in 3 of them and I will be playing him 50+ in alt markets. Jets defense is falling apart, LB injuries are real and they couldn't defend RBs in the passing game even before the attrition took hold. Achane refreshed off a mini bye.

Tua Tagovailoa is getting the ball out very quickly and this is by design. The Dolphins attack is to set up Tua for easy completions and it's largely been effective, however it has certainly contributed to decrease production from Tyreek Hill. Tua has the lowest ADoT of any starting QB in the league. Meanwhile Tyreek hasnt gone for 100+ yards since Week 1 which may as well be an eternity ago. Now he's facing a Jets defense that is a significant run funnel, in addition to being strong in coverage.

Most margins in New York's losses have been by a single score. With the setbacks and the injuries piling up side-by-side, the sense is that double-digit defeats are looming. Two standouts, CB Sauce Gardner and RB Breece Hall, have been declared out, while Pro Bowl LB C.J. Mosley has been sent to injured reserve. QB Aaron Rodgers is staggering toward possible retirement. The Jets (3-9 straight-up), with superior offenses than this one, have managed three TDs in the last half-dozen visits to Miami. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa owns a perfect record against them.

I'm rolling with Jason Sanders as my weekly kicker play considering that Miami's offense once again is potent with Tua Tagovailoa in the lineup. Regardless, Sanders is over this number in 5 of 6 home games, has attempted multiple field goals in 10 of 12 this year, and New York has given up multiple attempts in 7 of their last 9 games. We'll lay the juice and hope to hit it big come Sunday afternoon.

Both these teams endured somewhat sloppy losses last week, with injuries at cornerback playing a key role in both losses. Sauce Gardner and Cam Smith seem unlikely to make it back for this game, while the jury is still out on Kader Kahou. Considering the talent at receiver on both sides, that should open up the offenses to move the ball in chunks and keep putting points on the board. All five of the games these teams have played since Week 11 have gotten to at least 47 points, and the defensive injuries on both sides make me think we'll get there again in the head-to-head matchup.

If Jets bench their QB does line in my favor? Hmm. Bottom line: I want this under 7. Jets 3-10-1 ATS on road since '23; poorly coached and lack discipline. Miami makes statements at home against such lesser teams. Fish are 6-1-1 ATS last 8 at home vs NYJ (covering by 6.6 points on average). They are 8-2 ATS in this series the last 5 years. Miami has scored at least 24 every time they’ve faced NYJ with Tua and average 29 points in those games; Jets struggle to score 20. Tua 22-11 ATS at home and 8-4 ATS at home vs divisional foes (covering by 3+ points). Tua 17-7 ATS at home vs losing teams (covering by 7.2). Miami on exta rest, too.