This should be a game with a lot of passing, and Mac Jones showed good rapport with Parker Washington when forced into action last week. Washington racked up 103 yards on six receptions, but the 12 targets in that game are the key to hitting this modest Over. The Titans have been an awful pass defense since losing multiple corners to injury, and Washington should have some spots where he's open. Since he already has Jones' eye based on last week, he has a great chance of flying over this number, so it may be worth laddering this one up to 60 or 80 yards as well.

Prepared to stay away from this game all week -- given there was no way I was trusting Will Levis as a favorite beyond a score -- but the line has come down to a point that I'm willing to roll with the Titans as part of a weak 1 p.m. slate. The Jaguars are terrible and even worse with Mac Jones in for Trevor Lawrence. Tennessee plays better at home, and Levis has improved throwing four TD to one INT over his last two games -- seven TD to two INT since Nov. 10. The Jags are a major step down in class from the Titans' recent opponents, but I would not take this past -3.

Brian Thomas Jr. had 76 receiving yards last week with Mac Jones under center for the Jaguars. He can have another big game with Jones against a banged-up Titans defense. Lately, the Titans' defense has been a perimeter funnel, and been stingy in the slot. We know Thomas Jr. is explosive and can exceed this line on a few catches, similar to Jameson Williams and Christian Watson on Thursday night. Thomas Jr. has exceeded this line in the last two games and I like him to surpass it again today.

Never mind the Jags and their 3-10 record...should the 3-9 Titans be laying points to anybody? There was some excitement two when Will Levis engineered the Houston upset, but this offense also has cleared 20 points just once in the past eight weeks. At home this season, Tennessee hasn't covered yet in five tries. Meanwhile, aside from the blowout loss at Detroit, J'ville has been rather close in its last five games, and has only dropped one spread verdict its last six (4-1-1). QB Mac Jones might be seizing this last chance to establish himself in the league after throwing a pair of TD passes last week vs. Texans, his first scores of the season in relief of Trevor Lawrence. Play Jags

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed a spark offensively late with Mac Jones at quarterback. The surge was enough to get a backdoor cover at home against the Houston Texans. Tennessee has showed some improvements over the recent weeks, which included a road win over the top team in the division in the Houston Texans. At home though they have yet to cover. Expect that trend to continue against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars play a ton of man coverage, which is when Will Levis likes to target Calvin Ridley deep. Ridley has caught a pass of 30 yards or longer in five of the past seven games. Jacksonville ranks dead last in explosive pass rate allowed.

Jacksonville allows the fourth-most rushing yards in the league to quarterbacks and Tennessee's Will Levis has topped this easily in back-to-back games, getting four carries in each.

If Will Levis' passing yards is our appetizer, this is the main course. Not only does Ridley face the worst pass defense in the league, but it's his former team who let him walk in the offseason. He is third in the league in deep targets and has a 28% target share against man coverage, which Jacksonville plays more than any other team in the league. Anything short of 75 yards and I would be disappointed in Ridley's output this week.

This is part one of the Titans combo platter on the EC menu this week. Jacksonville's pass defense is the league's worst (273.3 yards allowed), having only prevented Deshaun Watson and an injured Jordan Love from hitting this number all season. Levis is over this total in his last three games and is fourth among all QBs in yards per attempt since he returned in Week 10. I would play this up to 211.5 at standard odds.

The Titans are a tough team to trust as favorites, but I'm willing to do so if I only have to lay a field goal and they're up against one of the league's worst teams that should be checked out with Trevor Lawrence done for the year. Will Levis is easier to trust against a defense that has managed just five interceptions all year. The Titans may actually be a better team than the market realizes, as they've been on the road for five of their last seven games and faced six likely playoff teams in that stretch, a schedule with which many teams would struggle.

Tennessee has the No. 1 pass defense in the league in terms of yards against but has only six picks. The Titans can't stop the run much and thus I expect a lot of that from the Jags on Sunday. Mac Jones knows it's his job the rest of the way with Trevor Lawrence out for the season, so Jones doesn't have to try and be someone he's not ahead of free agency. Do I lean he throws a pick? Sure, but not -160 worth. Great price for no.

The Titans have played much better at home this season. Will Levis ranks fifth in passer rating since returning four games ago from his shoulder injury, and he should thrive against the NFL's worst passing defense. Especially if Jaguars No. 1 corner Tyson Campbell (thigh) cannot play. In its last four road games, Jacksonville has given up 151 points (37.8). Look for a final in the 24-13 range and lay the points.

Concussed Trevor Lawrence has landed on injured reserve, leaving the Jags with pedestrian backup Mac Jones at the helm. He has throw for more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) this season. Jax can hardly lean on its defense for a rescue. It ranks last in yards and 30th in points allowed. Jones counterpart Will Levis, for the time being, is avoiding the brain farts that seemed befitting a high school QB and plagued him earlier in the season. A recent upset of Houston and competitive losses to the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota might sound like the elements of faint praise, but it signals an improvement for the Titans that should be sufficient for a cover here.

Both teams have been competitive in recent weeks while also suffering blowout losses, and for how poorly each defense is playing, I'm surprised this total is in the 30s. The only Jacksonville game under 40 since Week 2 featured them giving up 402 yards and doing nothing on offense, but Mac Jones was able to find success against Houston last week. The Titans' typically strong run defense fell apart last week, and their pass defense has been a problem for weeks due to injury. With Will Levis playing solid while also bringing potential for pick-sixes, I think both teams get to 20 here.