The loss of George Pickens obviously hurts the Steelers, but the Browns are operating without Cedric Tillman leaving both teams down top WRs. Cleveland had everything going for it in the prior meeting with the weather limiting Russell Wilson’s effectiveness severely. You need to ask why a team that lost by 5 just a few weeks ago is now favored by a TD at home. The reason is the volatility of Jameis Winston, and therefore, the Browns. Cleveland is terrible giving up explosive plays, and Pittsburgh this time will have the opportunity to hit them; the opposite is the case when it comes to the Steelers (outside of last week). Steelers have not lost at home since Sept. 29. I'll be teasing Pittsburgh with Minnesota.

Harris carried 16 times for 41 yards when these teams played on Nov. 21. With George Pickens out, I expect more work for Harris on Sunday. I see a Harris finishing with around 75 yards on Sunday.

George Pickens is officially inactive, leaving Wilson without his top target (and in my opinion one of the top-five wide receivers in the NFL). Wilson has gone well over this number in four of his six starts with the Steelers, but Pickens was on the field in each of those games. I expect the Steelers to lean heavily on Najee Harris and their rushing attack in this game. I see Wilson finishing with around 225 passing yards when it's all said and done.

A key to QB Russell Wilson's recent success has been WR George Pickens. However, Pickens is an injury-related scratch, which will impair the Steelers' offense. Cleveland got under this number 2 1/2 weeks ago with a five-point defeat to Pittsburgh. Riding with the hot-and-cold Cleveland QB Jameis Winston is always a risk, but he will be familiar with the Steelers' D this time. No player will be more fired up than Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, who accumulated three sacks of Wilson in the first half alone and took offense at the suggestion that Pittsburgh LB T.J. Watt is having the better season.

Fully expect Jameis Winston to get picked off today, but definitely playing a little something on this terrific price for No. Maybe he gets hurt ...

I don't know that George Pickens' absence directly affects Pat Freiermuth, but it surely can't hurt in terms of target share for the tight end. He has topped 2.5 catches in three of his past four.

The Steelers seem like inflated favorites in this spot. It will be tough to trust Browns QB Jameis Winston after he threw multiple pick-sixes last week. He also threw for 497 passing yards against a very good Broncos secondary. Don’t forget, just two weeks ago the Browns beat the Steelers outright 24-19. I’m not just chalking that game up to the wintry weather conditions that mucked it up. Winston was able to succeed against Pittsburgh’s single high safety scheme. As an underdog of 3 points or more, Winston is 21-11 ATS in his career. The public is way too heavy on Pittsburgh. This line is +6.5 on most other books, so be sure to shop for +7.

We aren't expecting 235 receiving yards today, but I still believe Jerry Jeudy will exceed this receiving prop. He has surpassed this line in every game with Jameis Winston as his quarterback. With Cedric Tillman out, the target tree has condensed to just a few pass catchers, with Jeudy being the main target. In this matchup against the Steelers in the snow a couple of weeks ago, he had six catches for 85 yards. The Browns showed last week that they will move Jeudy around to give him advantageous matchups. So I like him to exceed his receiving prop in this AFC North battle.

That was the full "Jameis Winston Experience" on Monday in Denver, with a whopping 497 YP and 4 TD passes...but also three very costly picks, two of those pick-sixes, in the Browns' bitter 41-32 loss. There's no denying, however, that Winston has sparked the offense far more than did Deshaun Watson, as the Browns work on over results in four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson looked like he did in his salad days with the Seahawks, throwing for 400+ yards himself and 3 TDP inn a 44-38 shootout win at Cincinnati. It's not ideal, but better weather today than the snow in Cleveland Nov. 21 when the Browns won 24-19...and another over result for Pittsburgh (now six of seven). Play Browns-Steelers Over

The forecast doesnt look bad and it's always a good day for Famous Jameis to chuck the ball all over the place. The Browns cant run the ball well and their defense sucks, especially on the road. They love throwing the ball all over the place with their backup QB this time of year. Winston has 41 attempts or more in 4 of his 5 starts, only throwing 27 times against the Steelers. That was a weird game in the snow. Nick Chubb doesn't look right. Steelers will pick up explosive plays on the Browns. Jameis will be trying to answer, like he has pretty much since he took over.

The Moonball is real. Russ was cookin last week like he hasn't in years and the play action deep shots come fast and furious. He has 10 completions over 30 yards already this season and he just took over as a starter 6 weeks ago. Russ has a completion of 43+ yards in 4 of his 6 starts; Browns have allowed one of 45 yards or more in 5 of 6 road games. Bo Nix just carved them. Their safety play is poor and the holes in their zone are getting shredded. Poor tackling secondary allows for ample YAC opportunities, too.

These teams are coming off a pair of shootouts and may have had a similar game against each other two weeks ago had the weather not been so bad. While that makes the Over a good look, I also think it makes sense to back the Browns, the team that won the first meeting as 'dogs. The Steelers just aren't a team comfortable playing as big favorites, and while they did so against the Giants earlier this year, that included a punt return TD to win by eight. The expectation here should be a close game that the Steelers win, but I think the line should be a few points lower.