The Bills are the belle of the ball right now in the NFL – and rightly so, they’ve been playing great football. Buffalo is also flying cross country after clinching its division early on short rest against a talented offensive team that has enough weapons to move the ball regularly. Matthew Stafford should be able to find his guys against the Bills’ zone with improved protection in the pocket. Certainly wish I got this earlier in the week at +4.5, but getting more than a FG is still valuable. The public is all over Buffalo and this line has only moved toward Los Angeles, which appears to be live to win this outright.

The Bills have won their last seven games covering six of them and they play a desperate Rams team who's taking a step up from who they normally beat. They've won two of their last four games beating the Saints and the Patriots on the road. The Bills have won and covered the last three meetings with the Rams. The Bills only two losses on the season were to the Ravens and the Texans both on the road and I don't see the Rams in the class of either one of those. The Bills have the No. 10 offense, the 11th-ranked defense, and are the second-best scoring team at 29.6. The Bills are No. 1 in turnover margin at plus-17. Bill's cover.

I bet on Stafford’s passing yards prop, and I will also take his over on completions. The two are obviously correlated, as Stafford has thrown for 24+ completions in 6/7 games that he also threw for 240+ yards this season. Stafford has one of the most drastic ‘Man Vs. Zone’ splits in the NFL (35% increase in DVOA against zone). The Bills play a high rate of zone coverage, and the Rams will be playing every game down the stretch with their season on the line. This is a big game, and I expect Stafford to try to put the team on his back.

Matthew Stafford is playing through an ankle injury and up against one of the better pass defenses in the league that has tightened the screws in recent weeks, only letting one QB top 231 passing yards since Week 6. That's despite every one of those passers playing from behind against the Bills. While Stafford has two big-name weapons at receiver, neither has been dynamic since returning from injury and the Bills have great talent at cornerback to handle them. I think the Rams' gameplan needs to focus on running the ball today, and it's going to be hard for Stafford to get to this number for the first time in three games.

The Rams remain in the thick of the NFC West division race and wild card picture. They should continue to throw the kitchen sink at teams. I expect Stafford to be slinging the rock, against a Bills defense that plays a high rate of zone coverage. Stafford’s efficiency numbers increase drastically against zone defense. The Rams may be forced to keep up in a high-scoring affair with Buffalo. I see Stafford throwing for 250+ yards in what should be a competitive game.

Stafford's been over this prop line in 4 of his past 6 games overall as well as 4 of his past 6 losses. That's important considering everyone including the oddsmakers thinks the Bills will win this game. Buffalo plays a lot of zone coverage in an attempt to keep their opponents' passing nice and short. The Bills have allowed a 68.5% completion rate on the season to opposing offenses, that's seventh-highest, and that number has been 74.6% over Buffalo's past four games including the blizzard they played in last week. It should make it easy for Stafford to complete a ton of passes.

Kyren Williams has relied on elite volume/usage this season and despite being inefficient, his workloads have provided him with a very solid floor. However Blake Corum just posted a season high 32% snap share in Week 13 and Kyren Williams was at just 68%, a far cry from the +90% he is used to. Williams now faces a very good Bills run defense that is 8th in EPA allowed per rush, and 7th in success rate. There is also game script which could work against Williams and in our favor as well. I'd play this down to 67.5.

James Cook is set up nicely to have a big game against a subpar Rams defense that has surrendered chunk plays all season long, which happens to be Cook's specialty. Teams have been heavily weighted towards running against the Rams all season with their opponents posting a -3% PROE. It should come as little surprise that the Rams are 24th in EPA allowed per rush. Cook is capable of making big plays in the passing game and I believe he'll see 15-18 touches on Sunday in what would certainly qualify as a strong matchup.

The Bills are rolling right now, winning three straight by double digits including beating the rival Chiefs. The Rams have been less impressive of late, even in wins over the Patriots and Saints. Matthew Stafford playing through an ankle injury and the Rams receivers are up against one of the league's best secondaries, so the Rams will have to run the ball better than they have this year to put up points. And even if that happens, the Bills could still score 30 for a seventh straight game and cover anyway. I think -4.5 was the right line so I'm buying the Bills after the drop in the market.

What gives me confidence in the LA Rams to cover is their defense. This is a disciplined defense that has the ability to collapse the edge with their pass rushers. On offense they do a good job of operating with balance, and that balance will give the Bills problems in this game.

The Bills have covered in 6 of their last 7 games and, in their other games vs the NFC West this season, have won 35-10, 31-10 and 34-28. Bills have scored 30+ in 6 straight games and hit that mark 9 times already this season. LAR are just 5-7 ATS (BUF is 8-4) and 2-4 at home. Sean McVay is 6-8-1 ATS as a home dog and just 9-7-1 ATS vs the AFC at home. Sean McDermott is 12-4 ATS vs the NFC on the road; he's covered 10 of those games by 11.5 points or more. Bills have covered by 5.5 or more in 5 of their last 7 games overall. Bills getting healthier on D; Rams offense super erratic.