Thielen made an immediate impact after returning from injury last week, going for 3 receptions & 57 yards against the Chiefs. Thielen will now face a Bucs secondary that ranks 29th in pass yards allowed per game. Thielen has only played in 4 games this season, but has recorded a 30+ yard catch in 3 of them, including a season long 36-yarder last week. Panthers QB Bryce Young has looked much improved over the last few weeks. I expect Young to send 5+ targets Thielen’s way, which should be enough to clear this modest receiving yards total for a reliable route-runner like Thielen.

With WR Mike Evans back last week, QB Baker Mayfield completed 80% of his passes against the Giants. Today he faces the Carolina Panthers, who do not pressure the quarterback and are a great matchup for Mayfield and the Buccaneers' offense. We also know the Buccaneers have a high pass rate over expectation, so I like Mayfield to keep it rolling and soar past his passing prop today.

The Panthers are among the most zone-heavy coverage defenses with the worst pass rush pressure rate on the year with a second-worst 17 sacks on the season. That creates a positive environment for Mayfield to complete short, easy passes like the ones he throws to his running backs. It helps that Mayfield has gone over this total in 5 of his past 6, and I also happen to think the game will be competitive, forcing the Bucs to throw a lot more than some might think.

Bucky Irving has been sensational in the Bucs backfield and is a big reason why Tampa boasts the 8th best rushing attack according to EPA. This is notable because the Bucs were downright dreadful the last two seasons when it came to running the football, ranking dead last in nearly every efficiency metric. Irving looks to have finally proven to the coaching staff that he deserves to be the lead back and has back to back games with at least 12 touches. Now he faces a dreadful Carolina run defense that is 31st in EPA allowed per rush, in addition to ranking dead last in Success Rate.

It's a great matchup for Mike Evans and now that he's seemingly recovered from his hamstring injury, he's back to his role as the featured target for Baker Mayfield. He hit this number last week in his first game back, and that was particularly impressive considering they didn't really need him in the 2nd half. I expect the Panthers to push back enough offensively to keep Evans involved in the Bucs air attack.

You attack the Bucs with the RB, and the Panthers have one the better duel threat runners in the league. Hubbard will get no shortage of touches here, he is 3rd in the NFL in second-half rushing yards and he can turn a screen pass into a big gain. He 47 touches in 2 games vs the Bucs last season in a far worse offense and went over 100 scrimmage yards in one of those games. Wouldn't be surprised to see him run for over 100 here.

He is their offense and the emergence of Bryce Young as a competent passer has allowed him a little more space to operate. He is their unquestioned drive finisher and has scored in 7 of the last 9 games, with 8 total TDs in that span. Bucs have allowed 9 TDs to RBs already this season. He can win in space in the screen game and the Bucs rushing D is soft.

The Panthers cannot defend TEs in tight spaces and Baker Mayfield loves feeding this guy and he will be a problem in the slot. Even with Mike Evans back, Otton is still a funnel in special situations (third down and RZ). Panthers have allowed 9 TDs to TEs this season - 3 more than any team - and 7 in the past 5 games alone.

The Panthers have allowed 21 passing TDs through 11 games - you do the math. It's a bad secondary and Baker has a shot to lead the NFL in passing TDs. He is 3 off the lead and has 24 in 11 games. He hasn't gone 3 games without hitting this all season and has just 1 in his last 2 games. Bucs scored 4 easy rushing TDs last week. I don't see that happening again here and the Panthers are far more vulnerable to passing TDs. Had hot in 3 straight road games prior to last week.

In his last six games, the rookie Irving is over this number in five of them, averaging 15 touches and 90 yards per game. Now he faces the league's worst rushing defense in a game where Tampa Bay should see positive game script. This number looks ten yards too low to me...

The Bucs are 12-2 ATS on the road the last two seasons, covering on average by a ridiculous 7.54 points. The next best team is GB at 4.18. That's crazy. Bucs are healthier on offense and while the Panthers are improved, they are also still limited. Bucs have covered 6 of 8 vs CAR and 8 of 12 and 10 of 16. Panthers have 8 losses of 6 points or more. Bucs have covered in 4 of the last 5 at Carolina (all by 4.5 points or more) and are 7-3 ATS in last 10 there, covering by 10.5 points on average.