Probably a decent chance the Raiders don't score a TD, but if they are near the goal line it's gonna be Double-A most likely getting the rock with the team's top two running backs out.

Corner Jack Jones got called out earlier this season for a lack of effort. Lately, though, he’s playing at a high level and coming up to stop the run. Three of his four best games as graded by PFF have come in the past month. He’s had seven combined stops in consecutive games. I expect the Chiefs to dominate time of possession, leading to more tackle opportunities.

Meyers has been on a tear since returning from injury a month ago. Meyers has gotten 10+ targets in 2 of his last 3 games, and is coming off a monster performance (10 receptions, 121 yards). The Raiders will be starting Aidan O’Connell at QB, but that won’t scare me off of Meyers props. In their two games played together this season, O’Connell connected with Meyers for 62 receiving yards against the Carolina Panthers, and 72 yards against the formidable Denver Broncos secondary. The Raiders are big underdogs, and are likely to be trailing in a negative game script. This should create plenty of chances for Meyers to go over this mark of 51 yards, which he has cleared in 6/9 games played this season.

Last time these teams played the Raiders got a back-door cover. And Aiden O'Connell might play his way into the game some and get more comfortable. Chiefs led by 7 at the half at Vegas and KC has led at half in 4 of the last 6 after falling behind consistently in the first 6 weeks. They have trailed by 4, 7, 8, 3, 5 and led by 1 on the road at the half. Chiefs were listless from the start vs LV at home last year and lost on Christmas. I expect a faster start here. KC scored 20 at Carolina Sunday in what I think is a sign of what may be to come today. Big Red has the early scripts cooking.

Does it matter whether it's Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, Desmond Ridder at QB for the Raiders? (Friday, it will be O'Connell, back in the saddle after missing the past month, and Minshew now out; Ridder in reserve). While losing, Vegas isn't getting completely embarrassed, its Maxx Crosby-led defense making enough of a fist of it to at least prevent weekly humiliation. As for O'Connell, remember the Raiders won at Arrowhead with him at QB (though he didn't do much) last Christmas. Note KC's continuing tendency to play to the level of its opposition, with no win by more than 13 points. In fact, the Chiefs have failed to cover five straight into Friday (including at Allegiant Stadium vs. the Raiders on October 27). Play Raiders

Picking the Chiefs by margin feels like flushing money down the toilet; it’s been a disastrous play. What I cannot get past is my 19-point projection with Aidan O’Connell under center for the Raiders. Las Vegas literally lost by 19 in O’Connell’s only start, and the Steelers with Justin Fields did not have the explosiveness to match the Chiefs. Most important for Kansas City is getting Isiah Pacheco back, which should lead to more consistent rushing that will take pressure off Patrick Mahomes, who has played much better. Just as we said in picking the Broncos, if the Chiefs limit Brock Bowers, they should tamper any Raiders offensive juice. This is no doubt an island-game pick, but KC’s woes cannot last forever … can they?!

Mahomes is hot again, not that people seem to notice. They might not be covering games but the QB is covering this prop in 4 of the last 5 games. He has 3 TDS in 3 of the last 4 games. He has 2 or more passing TDs in 9 of aa games vs the Raiders .The Raiders have allowed 20 passing TDs in 11 games this season; they have allowed 2 or more in 4 straight games, yielding 12 total in that span.

Some guy names Noah Grey has 2 TDs in back to back games. Yeah, the "other" TE has done that the last two weeks, while Patrick Mahomes is back to shredding defenses in tight space. Kelce is overdue for a TD, and if he gets one look out. You don't think Mahomes would try to feed him again? You don't think Kelce is busting his balls about what the other TE has done the last two weeks? Kelce continues to get plenty of looks and targets. I see a shovel pass in his future, too.

So Noah Gray is getting all the action lately for the Chiefs, eh? Four TD catches in the last 2 games for the No 2 QB? Okay, so those were road games, and if you track Mahomes/Kelce, the connection shows up more at home. Mahomes TD pass rate has spiked majorly the past 4 weeks, the Raiders have allowed 5 TD passes to TEs in their last 3 games and Kelce has 12, 16 and 10 targets in his last 3 homes games, with 1 TD catch. The playoffs are nearing. Kelce will get plenty of action with Gray warranting more attention now in the redzone, too. KC RZ offense looking best it has in over a year.

The Chiefs might be winning on the scoreboard but not against the spread. They have dropped five in a row, the first of which was a seven-point decision over Las Vegas. Recent straight-up victories have included one in overtime and one last Sunday on a game-ending field goal. Their 14th-ranked offense has not generated enough points for covering sizable lines, and their biggest win margin out of 10 is 13 points. Though the Raiders lost QB Gardner Minshew on Sunday to injury, occasional starter Aidan O’Connell is expected to be activated off injured reserve. The backup plan is former NFL starter Desmond Ridder. Stir in the rivalry element, and a tighter outcome that the spread suggests is plausible.

The Chiefs will either have Desmond Ridder or a returning-from-injury Aidan O'Connell for this game, and I'm not sure it matters. I can't see Ridder staying within two TDs after how much he struggled with much better weapons in Atlanta, and O'Connell went 9 for 21 for 62 yards in his last start against the Chiefs. The Chiefs offense is finally getting into a groove with Patrick Mahomes throwing three TDs in three of his last four games after throwing just eight in his first seven games combined. Once the Chiefs get outside the number, it's hard to see the Raiders rallying back for a cover with this offense.