David Monty has scored in 7/9 games. I make him about 72% to score v a bad Jags team so -175 (63.3%) is strong value.

The Jags are horrific in every pass defense metric, but I'm betting Jared Goff won't need to throw much for the Lions to build a comfortable lead and win easily. Goff has actually stayed Under this attempts prop in six of his last seven games, the miss coming last week in a comeback win in Houston. Look for a much different game script Sunday.

Last week Jared Goff of the Lions threw five interceptions that should have surely led to a loss to the Texans but they ended up winning by three and almost covering by a half-point. This team loves to bury teams and the Texans are no joke. Now we come to the Jaguars who have backup Mac Jones starting and they face the Lions team that finds so many different ways to score whether it's special teams, whether it's defense, whether it's the running game, or passing, it's all equal. Detroit is 8-1 on the season and 7-2 against the spread. Lions cover by a lot.

Cannot resist the points with possibly the largest line of the season. A two-touchdown spread would be justified if the Jaguars' defense was shoddy, but it just kept the Vikings out of the end zone for 60 minutes. (Four Minnesota field goals doomed the Jags.) Jax QB Mac Jones should improve; he cannot get much worse. The Lions might qualify as the league's best team, but QB Jared Goff is coming off a five-interception day. If the Jags' offense can whip up 17 points, a cover seems likely.

We won easily on Mac Jones on this prop last week (Jones also lost a fumble; he's not an NFL quarterback) in his first start as a Jaguar, and I don't see why anything would change Sunday. He might be throwing 50 times if the Jags get down huge as many expect.

This cashed even in Goff's abomination of an outing, on the road, vs a very good Texans D. Even in throwing five picks, he still threw 2 TDs in a game for the sixth time in the last seven outings. Jags secondary is a joke, they have allowed 19 passing TDs and they get no pass rush. Goff back at home with a full assortment of skill players to choose from.

So we are now up to 7 in a row with him catching a TD pass, and he cashed again for us last week despite Jared Goff looking worse than he has a long time and throwing 5 INTS on the road. Back home, look for him to be the primary target against a terrible Jags defense that has all kinds of issues vs WRs. They have allowed 19 passing TDs, second most in the NFL. I love this matchup; Jags have no pass rush and Lions offense is due to get back on track after stumbling a bit for three weeks.

This is a massive number for an NFL game in 2024, but it's one the Lions have proven they can cover, with wins of 30+ against the Cowboys and Titans in recent weeks. I'm going to grab the -13 at DraftKings as I have this line set at -14.5 without Trevor Lawrence, even knowing the foot can come off the gas in these blowout type games. Nothing we saw from Mac Jones makes me feel confident the Jaguars are going to score more than 10-13 points here, and Jared Goff should be back to mistake free football after his messy performance last week.