The Chargers are the best under team in the league. Tennessee is back to starting Will Levis at quarterback this afternoon. This will be the best defense that he has faced thus far. The Chargers are holding their opponents to 11.7 points per game at home, but their offense is only averaging 19.3 points at home. Los Angeles doesn’t have the most explosive offense as they want to win the defensive battle first and grind the rest of the game out. This season as a favorite, the Chargers are 12-1 to the under.

Will Levis will return to the Tennessee lineup after missing a few games due to injury and has been picked off at least one in all five starts this season for a total of seven. I fully expect the Titans to be trailing big, so he should be throwing a lot. Levis O/U TD passes is only 0.5 and I might have to come back and play that.

Under Jim Harbaugh we've seen the Chargers be much better at the situational football things, which have plagued them for years. Defensively, look for them to get after Will Levis and make his return a bit uncomfortable on Sunday.

Ladd McConkey is having a strong season and is proving to be one of the better WRs in an absolutely loaded rookie class. McConkey has seemingly played better and better as the season has progressed however this looks like a tough spot for him for a variety of reasons. First and foremost he's playing on a low volume passing offense and it's fair to wonder how much the Chargers will be throwing in a game they are 7 point home favorites. This is also a difficult matchup against a Titans pass defense that is well suited to prevent McConkey from getting chunk plays. The Titans pass defense is very stingy and are particularly adept at defending the splash zone and limiting big plays.

At this time we're not sure who is going to start at quarterback for the Titans, but I'm not sure it matters for this number. The Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, and the only game where they allowed more than 350 yards was a 26-8 win. The Titans have scored more than 20 once (against a Dolphins team that couldn't move the ball with Tyler Huntley) and are 31st in points per drive. It's the type of offense the Chargers should shut down, while the Chargers' passing attack has made them less one-dimensional and more like the teams that score 24-30 on Tennessee. I'm OK backing the Chargers at -7.5 but was thrilled to see a -7 pop up.

The Chargers are giving up an NFL-low 12.6 points per game and get to host the Titans' pedestrian offense. Whether Will Levis or Mason Rudolph starts, Tennessee will have trouble scoring after needing overtime to get to 20 points vs. the Patriots. The Titans started off this season playing excellent defense, but they've given up 5.5 yards per play over their last three games. Potentially without top corner L'Jarius Sneed, the Titans will see a rejuvenated Justin Herbert. He's averaged 10.4, 8.7 and 8.9 yards per attempt the past three games and for the season has thrown 10 TDs against one INT. Look for a score in the 23-13 range and lay the points.

The Chargers passing attack has opened up majorly over the last four games, at the same time the run game has dried up. And they happen to be facing a defense that has been suffering lately against the pass. Herbert dropped back just 25 times a game through 4 games, completing just 15 passes; in the last 4 he has 38 dropbacks/G with 22 completions/G, averaging 287 yards/G. Herbert has cashed this twice in a row and the Titans have allowed the last 4 established starting QBs they've faced (Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Joe Flaco, Aaron Rodgers) to hit this. The offense goes through Herbert's arm now and there's no debate.

The Chargers don't turn the ball over, they are top four in turnover margin and Jim Harbaugh has made an immediate impact with a D allowing an NFL-best 12.6 PPG. He's letting Justin Herbert air it out the last four weeks and the Titans secondary has struggled vs better QBs. Titans have allowed 24+ five times and Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS, with TEN 1-7. Chargers have covered by 5.75 on average (6th best) and Titans are -6.31 (30th). Titan's cant play from behind. All 5 LAC wins by 7+ points and 4 by double digits. Titans have 5 losses by 7+. This has major blowout potential.

The Chargers bleed the clock to the tune of 31.5 seconds per play. Only that moves more methodically is the Titans (31.7). Chargers games under Jim Harbaugh are averaging NFL-low 32.5 points. Chargers are 7-1 under this season and 19-6 since start of last season. Harbaugh is 27-11 under in last 38 NFL games. Justin Herbert is under in 11 of his last 12 . Titans have produced all of 61 points over the last four games, and Chargers are allowing just 12.6 PPG. Herbert starting to uncork it more gives me some pause but Titans have legit secondary and stud coordinator. All but one Chargers game has come in at 37 or under.