The Cardinals are well positioned to take advantage of a Jets weakness behind James Conner. New York has a rest advantage and the experience edge with Aaron Rodgers, but I like that combination as a sell-high candidate this week coming off the win over a thin and hobbled Houston teams. That game was Rodgers’ best quarterbacking performance in three years yet NY still got outgained yardage-wise. Arizona should be able to control the clock with Conner and Kyler Murray. Hopefully they have figured out how to find consistency from Marvin Harrison Jr. I’d much rather be the team being dictated by Jonathan Gannon than Jeff Ulbrich and Nathaniel Hackett. Getting points at home, the Cards

Let's start with the fact the Jets are 1-4 on the road and haven't even looked very convincing in their victories at home. Aaron Rodgers is old and broken and has a 78.1 rating on the road, averaging just 6.4/att and not even completing 59% of his passes. Jets run D EPA is 29th the last 4 weeks and Cards can run the ball with James Conner and the QB. Jets 28th in EPA defending QB scrambles. NYJ 3-9-1 ATS on road since '23 (-6.27 cover margin in 30th in NFL). AZ 5-0 ATS vs AFC. Cardinals have faced tough schedule and held up. Jets have the lesser coach and already road weary from a brutal travel schedule.

The disappointing Jets are hanging on by a thread. But their win over the Texans provided some signs of life, and they must deliver in this winnable matchup in order to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Arizona has performed above expectation but is due for regression.

Should the Cards be getting points here? Mind, the Jets were the masters of dysfunction as they lost five straight before last Thursday's win over Houston, as Aaron Rodgers continues to post only modest stats, while Breece Hall and the ground game have not provided much trouble to the opposition. Meanwhile, a possible explanation why the surprising Big Red (now on top of the NFC West at 5-4) have been able to maintain this push into November is that, unlike previous seasons, Kyler Murray has remained relatively healthy. The emergence of rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr along with a healthy RB James Conner have lent a sharper edge to the Cards offense, while the big-play defense has 21 sacks. Play Cardinals

Jets wideout Garrett Wilson is coming off back-to-back performances with 113 and 90 receiving yards. This is another plus matchup for Wilson, who leads the NFL in targets. Since Davante Adams arrived, Wilson is running deeper routes yet he has still been targeted nine times per game.

The Cardinals play the the Jets in Arizona and yet they're the underdog to a 3-6 team. Arizona has won four of their last five games including beating the 49ers and yet they're the underdog to an overrated Jets squad. Everybody thinks is better than they are. The Jets are 1-5 in their last six games. That's who they are. The Cardinals have the No. 7 rated rush game led by James Conner averaging 149 yards per game. Teams can't stop them and they average 5.3 yards per rush which is second best in the NFL. Control the clock, control the game, that's the Cardinals. The Jets have only recovered three fumbles in nine games. It's like they're not even trying. Cardinals to win.

Kyler Murray is having a solid season however he is facing a Jets pass defense that is starting to play up to their potential/talent. Despite a shaky start to the year, the Jets pass defense is ranked first in Dropback Success %, 4th in PFF's Coverage Grade, and 9th in EPA allowed per Dropback. The Jets haven't been able to get a consistent pass rush but it shouldn't matter much as Murray has struggled with a clean pocket this season. I also expect the Cardinals to rely heavily on James Conner and their rushing attack as the Jets are a significant run funnel, in part because of the strength of their pass defense, but also because they're much weaker defending the run.

The Jets might have saved their season with a win over the Texans in Week 9. Now, on extra rest, they face an Arizona team riding high. But the Cardinals feel a bit overvalued after two nailbiter wins and a trouncing of the disinterested Bears. Aaron Rodgers has played well from a clean pocket, and he shouldn't face too much pressure from the Cardinals. The Jets' elite corners will stifle Arizona's wideouts, and New York is getting its starting safeties back from injury. Look for the Jets to load up against the run and come away with a close victory.

Aaron Rodgers gets blitzed far less on the road (25% to 37%) and his sack rate is almost half as high, yet he is below functional. He is completing just 58.7% of his passes at just 6.4 yards/attempt with a passer rating of 78.5 (100.2 at home). And he's thrown 6 picks in 5 road games with an INT rate of 3.5% (0.69% at home).

The Jets are coming off a much-needed win and a minibye, but the offense had less than 300 yards in that game, getting outgained by a Houston offense down multiple starters in the passing attack. I'm not convinced they're about to go on a run, and I like catching points at some books here with an Arizona team that has flat out been better this year, especially during a 4-1 run in their last five. The Cardinals have the run game and tight end to attack the Jets defense, while the Arizona defense is coming off its best game. I have the Cardinals favored here.