This game features arguably the best player on the planet (Patrick Mahomes), but I expect the defenses to shine early. Both teams have been outstanding on the defensive side of the ball this season, and I expect that trend to continue at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.

Waited to see if this hit 42.5 and it did. Chiefs 15-6 to the under at home since '22 and 16-9 to the under overall since '23 (-5.16 margin, biggest by far in the NFL). These teams played games at 33 and 27 points last year and DEN D is much better now. Bounce back spot for them vs a tepid offense. Mahomes has just 7 TD and 7 INT in last 4 games vs DEN. DEN games averaging 38.2 points (30th in NFL). Both teams will stick with the run. Neither plays with pace. Broncos playing a weaker offense and Chiefs playing a much better defense than last week, when both played games that bucked this low-scoring trend.

Denver's Bo Nix has easily topped this in three of his past four. The Broncos running backs likely won't be doing much today against a stout K.C. rush defense, so Nix may need to supply much of the rush yards. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield runs like he has a gigantic armadillo on his back, and he had 20 yards rushing Monday against the Chiefs. Nix is vastly more mobile.

While there should be no expectation the Broncos play as poorly against the Chiefs as they did against the Ravens, if Denver and Bo Nix were unable to throw against that porous secondary, they are going to struggle to move the ball against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. The Chiefs got outschemed by Liam Coen last week and still won by six. While they have struggled to cover TD+ spreads the last two weeks, I’m comfortable backing Patrick Mahomes in this spot. Don’t love that KC is on a short week, but in a home game, it should take care of business. Avoid the hook. Will also have Chiefs in a Wong teaser with the 49ers or Steelers.

Although the Chiefs face a key AFC showdown next week against Buffalo, they should still care of business in this one. Denver is an upstart club but hasn't been terribly competitive in its losses, with all of its wins coming against bottom-tier opposition.

If you only followed pro football between 1960-69 and 2015-2023, you might think the Broncos never beat the Chiefs (or the old Dallas Texans). Denver was 1-19 in the 60s in this series and endured a 16-game slump vs. the Chiefs before finally turning the tables last October 29. But the Broncos have actually covered five of the last seven meetings, and Patrick Mahomes hasn't had an easy time of it lately vs. Denver, with just 1 TD pass across the pair of meetings last season. The Chiefs were also held below 300 yards in that 24-9 loss at Mile High last October. Denver's defense rated highly prior to the Ravens loss, and just 2 picks from Bo Nix the past seven games. Play Broncos

Nix has been over this mark in three of his past four with at least four unscheduled scrambles in each of those three. In fact the only recent game he didn't run for 25-plus yards was against the Panthers, whose toothless defense doesn't pressure any quarterback. The Chiefs do pressure quarterbacks, so the idea is that Nix will have to get moving to avoid their pass rush. And Nix is technically just the second "mobile" quarterback to play the Chiefs this season, but he's in line to be the third with over 25 rush yards after Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy accomplished the feat earlier this year. Tack on a suspected lack of handoffs due to gamescript issues and Nix should clear this easily.

Andy Reid seems deadset on feeding him 20+ times a game and in what should be a low scoring game, and a close game (that's all the Chiefs play) and with Patrick Mahomes's ankle perhaps an issue, they will ride their plowhorse. Even when Hunt isn't all the effective Reid uses him to control clock. Has 21 carries or more in 4 straight. Wil need volume in the run game to slow down their pass rush and control game. This secondary can take away their top targets. I expect Hunt to get a ton of work.

He managed not to throw one Monday night, but is dealing with some sort of ankle situation, is facing an elite pass rush team on short rest and leads the NFL in picks since the start of last season and has thrown one in 7 of the last 8 games. Denver is a top takeaway team and Mahomes has thrown 7 picks in his last 4 games against them. Mahomes also hasn't gone two straight games without tossing a pick since Week 16 of '22, a span of 26 regular-season games. Broncos also a airtight vs TEs and Travis Kelce just saw 16 targets. Hmm.

The Chiefs survived an OT game against the Bucs on Monday to remain undefeated, and I think it's a great spot to fade a big favorite the following week after an OT Monday game. The Broncos' typically elite defense had no shot at slowing down the Ravens, but the Chiefs haven't been in the business of blowing out teams, with just two wins of double digits this year. Typically teams that stay undefeated are overvalued by the market (the '07 Pats started 8-0 ATS and then covered just twice through the Super Bowl, for example), and considering the post-MNF spot, this could be a struggle for the Chiefs to win by margin.