We like the Bills here because they've won the last five meetings including this year when they knocked out Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have only covered one game in their last 10. We like the Bills because they lead the NFL in turnover margin at plus-12 with Josh Allen only throwing one interception all season. The team has only fumbled twice for a total of three turnovers by the offense. This is a football team highly tuned in to what's going on with their game plan. Buffalo covers.

Both times Tagovailoa went over this total vs. Buffalo (in 8 games), the matchups were complete blowouts in favor of Buffalo. Only one time in the past 11 home games for the Bills has a quarterback exceeded this number (dating back to 2023). Look for Miami to rely on its rushing attack and I'd be surprised if Tua came within ten yards of this line.

No team gives up more receiving yards to opposing running backs than Buffalo (54.3 per game). So this matchup sets up beautifullly for De'Von Achane, who has benefitted from Tua Tagovailoa's return. Miami potentially will be playing catch-up in the second half, which bodes well for this prop.

Seems no matter where Jonnu Smith plays he finds a way onto the field and into a productive role. That has been the case in Miami where he is flirting with elite route participation and has managed 6+ targets in three consecutive games while compiling 16 receptions for 178 yards and 1 TD. Gamescript could also be working in Miami's favor against a very good Bills team. We're paying a steep price here but I've been very encourage by Smith's usage and underlying metrics. Jonnu is averaging an impressive 2.0 YPRR, paired with a healthy 14% First Read Targets/Route. He's essentially being utilized as a big slot receiver.

The dude has 8 TDs this season already, he has 4 in his last 3 games against Miami. Josh Allen isn't running nearly as much in the redzone this year as he was last year and no one else is a real vulture threat to him on the ground. He's also a dervish in the screen game. He has 5 TDs in 5 games vs Miami. He's scored in 5 of the last 6 games.

Tua Tagovailoa threw for 282 yards against the Bills at Highmark Stadium in October 2023. The temperature was 70 degrees. In his past two games vs. Buffalo, he passed for 145 yards and 173 yards. That’s an average of 200 in three games. Temps will be around 50 degrees for this contest. Considering Buffalo is right around the league average in rushing defense, Miami wants to run the ball. That will also keep Buffalo's offense off the field while eating the clock. The Bills are ranked fifth in opponent yards per pass attempt, which improves to first (tied with Houston) in home games. Buffalo is ranked ninth in opponent passer rating overall, which improves to fifth when playing in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are coming off back-to-back blowouts, but both games were close in the first half. Tennessee led Buffalo at halftime, and the Seahawks were a couple yards away from a 14-14 tie at the half without DK Metcalf. The Dolphins offense has the potential to outscore anyone with Tua Tagovailoa at QB, but the defense let them down in the fourth quarter against the Cardinals. With Miami needing this game desperately and the Bills somewhat coasting early in games, I think this is close at the break.

The Bills are the far better team, and more balanced team, and better coached team. Since 2019 Josh Allen 10-1 vs MIA completing 69.5% of his passes for 277/G with 29 TD/4 INT - 113 rating. Tua vs BUF is 1-7, 61.9% comp, 6.8/att, 7 TD/10 INT - 74.1 rating. Starting to get chilly in BUF and so much for Tua's return providing a winning lift last week. Fish are who their record says they are. BUF 5-1-3 ATS last 9 vs MIA, covering on avg by 11.5. BUF 4-2-1 last 7 at home vs MIA, covering by 10.1. Bills have won 6 of last 8 meetings/beatings of the Fish by a TD or more. Bills will be focused to further distance themsevles from AFCN.