After seeing the inactives, I will double down on my Packers -2.5 play with the moneyline. Houston is missing four defensive starters in linebackers Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o, plus cornerback Kamari Lassiter and safety Jimmie Ward. Certainly not ideal vs. Jordan Love. Green Bay, meanwhile, is very healthy.

The Texans didn’t miss a beat last week with Nico Collins sidelined, but that came against a dreadful Patriots D. The Packers have proven to be stout on defense (granted, against lesser QBs) and explosive on offense now that Jordan Love has his full complement of weapons really for the first stretch this season. Houston is injured in the secondary, so while Green Bay has not been tested against top units, it should have an easier day here. Still, C.J. Stroud was my pick over Love in the weekly QB debate, and he will absolutely get his at Lambeau Field. There is too much pointing to the Packers emerging as victors (even if I was originally planning to go with the Texans entering the week).

The Texans are banged up on defense and are still missing star WR Nico Collins.. With the Packers coming off a 437-yard performance against Arizona last week, we'll lay the short number with the team that has the slightly better current form.

Two of the league's best young QBs will square off here. The Texans remain without their star WR Nico Collins, and veteran WR Robert Woods. On the other side of the ball, Houston will be missing two key defensive backs (Safety Jimmie Ward & CB Kamari Lassiter) and two starting linebackers. I expect Houston's impressive defense to regress here. Green Bay QB Jordan Love is distributing the ball efficiently and without bias to his deep WR corps. Green Bay has scored 28+ points in 3/4 of Love's starts this year. If Packers CB Jaire Alexander can limit Texans WR Stefon Diggs, I don't think CJ Stroud will be able to outscore Jordan Love on the road in Lambeau Field.

Last 2.5 on our board so let's take it. Certainly possible we see this matchup again in February in New Orleans. Probably would pass on this if the Texans were healthy but they definitely aren't with Nico Collins on IR and several defensive starters in jeopardy of sitting Sunday. Green Bay has a lot of guys listed questionable but appears most if not all will play. The Packers have 17 takeaways this season, tied for the most by any team in the last 10 seasons through six games.

This is a tough matchup for Tucker Kraft who faces a Houston Texans defense that surrenders the fewest yards per game at just 21.5 to opposing Tight Ends. Krafts target profile isn't overly impressive and possesses one of the lowest first read target rates at the position. The Packers aren't scheming looks for Kraft either. The number looks bloated to me.

We jump this every week. This is an explosive downfield passing game and Love can buy time to make things happen on script or off. Pencil him in for another 40+ reception here with a deep group of pass catchers and one that can excel on YAC as well. Texans secondary has not been as good on the road the last two years, and I expect the Packers OL to stand tall and allow Love to takes the repeated deep shots that have propelled this offense to this point.

Here are two top teams coming off blowout wins that match up pretty similarly. The Texans offense is probably a bit better than the Packers defense, but that unit makes it up by a large number of turnovers. However, it's less likely they'll get those with C.J. Stroud at QB on the other side. The Texans have the fourth best pass defense in terms of net yards per attempt to help counter the Packers' top-five passing game. This game has a lot of potential outcomes, but ultimately I like catching a full field goal with one of the better teams in the league when it's not even facing one of the big three (KC, SF, BAL).

Exciting quarterback matchup here between Jordan Love and CJ Stroud. This is a game where I believe the Texans will really miss Nico Collins. The Packers are now ranked in the top 10 in the league in EPA per play on both sides of the ball and are getting stronger. The Texans, on the other hand, are just 16th in offensive EPA per play, and I project that number to decline with them playing outdoors and without Nico Collins. I have the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites in this matchup.

I'm cool paying the juice to get it under 3 points. Matt LaFleur is 28-16 ATS at home. Jordan Love has covered in 6 of his last 8 (including playoffs). Pack have covered 7 of 11 at home since start of '23. CJ Stroud ain't the same game on the road (226 yds/G, just 7.2/att) and GB getting better each week. No Nico Collins will hurt here. Love has at least 2 TD passes in 8 straight. Spreads ball around and plays no favorites. Makes them very hard to defend. HOU D just 28th in RZ and have faced mostly bad/very raw QBs. Big step up here. GB doing a great job with protection, 3rd lowest sack rate allowed