The Broncos have had some issues finding the end zone when they've reached the red zone this season, and the Chargers are a solid defensive team. Lutz has kicked well for Denver, and is averaging close to three attempts per game. In what projects to be a low-scoring game, look for the Broncos to take points where they can get them.

Sutton is averaging over eight targets a game but thus far the receptions have not been there. He expected receptions are quite a bit higher than the actual receptions so let’s bet on what should be happening and take the over

The Denver Broncos have rolled off three straight wins, including last week’s blowout over the Las Vegas Raiders. Sunday’s game should be much different as the Chargers are coming out of a bye week. They’ll also be hungry to end a two game skid. With any rookie quarterback there are going to be highs and lows. Look for the Chargers to be prepared to limit Bo Nix effectiveness. Take the Chargers.

Safeties have been putting up way-above-average tackle numbers versus the Broncos. That makes this a great matchup for Derwin James, who returns from a one-game suspension. With two key members of the secondary ruled out, look for James to make at least seven combined tackles in his return.

Williams has been way over this in 3 of his past four games. It's helped that he's seen a 23.3% target per route run rate this year, and he's averaging nearly 8 yards per catch. The Chargers are good in terms of defensive metrics against running backs through the air, but teams have thrown against them a ton -- three times out of four, opponents of the Bolts have thrown to their running backs at least eight times per game. I'm guessing it's because the Chargers play the third-most zone coverage so as to not get beat deep.

Just why are the Chargers favored at a place where they haven't won in six years? Though Justin Herbert has had a bye week to rest his sore ankle, he hasn't been moving the same all season. Herbert's downfield passing targets are also limited these days as Jim Harbaugh has been forced into a ground-and-pound approach featuring JK Dobbins. Note that Denver's defense has shut down much better passing games than this one, with Pat Surtain II effectively cuts off half of the field. The Chargers look to be truly one-dimensional on Sunday. Meanwhile, Bo Nix is growing in confidence each week as the Denver win streak has reached three. Most assuredly, we think, the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here! Play Broncos

Denver ranks 21st in yards per carry (4.1). The Broncos will struggle on the ground against a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in EPA per rush (25th last season). I love backing Jim Harbaugh off the bye; he'll have a healthier Justin Herbert, with Joe Alt among the supporting cast expected to return. The Broncos are riding a three-game win streak but remember, they were about to go down two touchdowns to the lowly Raiders until Gardner Minshew threw a job-costing pick-6 to Patrick Surtain. I would only play this under a field goal.

This should be the rock fight of the week. Under head coach Jim Harbaugh, LA has adopted an old school football approach. They play at one of the slowest paces in the NFL, looking to pound the rock and control time of possession on offense, and keep their opponents stuck in ‘3rd and long’ on defense. Denver’s defense has been exceptional this season, with an elite secondary and a vaunted pass rush. I have trouble seeing the Chargers hit explosive plays against standout Broncos CBs Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss. Broncos home games at Mile High stadium have strongly trended to the Under (48-30 since 2015). I don’t see this game breaking 30 total points.

The Chargers had the bye to get healthier after several key players missed their last game, but I don't think that's a good reason to make them three-point road favorites against a top-tier defense that has allowed three TDs outside of garbage time over the last four weeks. The offense even came alive against the Raiders, and though I expect it'll be tougher sledding this week against what's been a good Chargers defense, assuming Joey Bosa is back from injury. If all of the Chargers' key players return from injury, this line should be south of 3, and at this current point of uncertainty I'd make it a pick 'em.

Chargers healthier on defense coming off an early bye, and Derwin James back from suspension. LA games averaged 29.5 points through 4 weeks, second lowest to Denver (28). Jim Harbaugh is 24-10 to the under in his last 34 NFL games. Sean Payton, sans a dynamic QB in Denver, is 11-6 to the under. Broncos swept this series 24-7 and 16-9 last year and played one that totaled 35 in 2022 as well. This series is 8-4 to the under since 2018, with an average of 40.5 points; the current iterations of these rosters don’t scare me off this number, Broncos are under in six of their last eight AFC West games. Chargers are under in 14 of their last 20 in the division.