The public is all over Atlanta. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS this season but they’re 4-1 to the over as well. Carolina’s defense is allowing their opponent to score 30 at home and allowing over 360 total yards. Andy Dalton should be able to move the ball against this Falcons defense, who’s allowing 25.3 points over their last three games.

The Panthers have been a funnel to the Over based on their inability to stop opponents combined with an improved offensive floor with Andy Dalton at QB. However, look for both teams to establish their run games and engage in more of a grinder than the matchup suggests at first glance.

The Panthers have played five games this season. They have lost four – by an average of 24 points, none by less than 10 – and won only one against the Raiders, among the worst defenses in the league with a rough offense. The Falcons have stood up in key situations over recent weeks, and as Kirk Cousins gets healthier, the offense is operating more efficiently. Granted, all three of Atlanta’s wins have been close, but Cousins should have a field day here. Plus, the Falcons are on extra rest. Just don’t see how the Panthers keep up with their diminished pass rush and inconsistent offense.

In the Falcons' three wins, Younghoe Koo has made 10 field goals. This projects as another Atlanta victory. The Panthers have given up an NFL-high 33 points per game, so the Falcons should have plenty of scoring opportunities. Look for Koo to knock through at least two field goals.

Bijan will look to get rolling after a disappointing/slow start to his sophomore campaign. Carolina is dead last in Run Stop Win Rate and Bijan should have no trouble getting chunk plays in this matchup. This is the definition of a get right spot.

Earlier I bet Bijan Robinson Over his rushing yards prop, only to see Robinson added to the Thursday injury report with a hamstring issue. Consider this bet a hedge, though both could easily hit against a Panthers defense allowing 144.6 rushing yards per game. As of now, Robinson is not believed to be in danger of missing Sunday's game. But it's clear he has not put the injury behind him and it could limit his touches. Allgeier is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season. Over the past four games, he's averaging 7.5 carries. No other Falcons RB has a carry besides the big two.

Bijan Robinson has only cleared this number once, but I love the fact he's on extra rest and gets to face the Panthers. Per analyst Jake Tribbey, 82 percent of Robinson's rushes have come in zone run schemes. The Panthers are giving up 4.8 yards per carry against those concepts. Robinson could surpass this prop total thanks to volume -- the Falcons are 6-point favorites and could be running the ball in the fourth quarter. But Robinson's explosiveness (see Chase Brown, Week 4) could help him clear it earlier.

Cousins is healthy now and after a summer spent coming back from an Achilles tear he is in sync with his new pass catchers and play caller. He is averaging 288/G over his last 17 starts, he is coming off destroying the Bucs D and facing a team 30th in yards/pass allowed, that doesn't generate much pressure but is decent against the run. Falcons coming off extra rest and seem to have figured out throwing 35+ times is their way to go. Panthers allowed 70 points to Joe Burrow and Caleb Williams. Are 29th on third down. Should be ample attempts and chunk yards to get us over here, even if it becomes a blowout.

The Falcons had just four offensive TDs coming into Week 5 and then put up four more while rolling up 550 yards in an OT win. They get an incredible matchup against the awful Carolina defense and figure to score a bunch of points again. I think Carolina can keep up, as they should've done against the Bengals if not for getting stuff at the goal line early, and this should be a better matchup for them at home against a Falcons defense that is last in percentage of drives allowing a score. This game should shoot past 50 so I'm going two units here.

Atlanta enters this matchup with a 3-2 overall record, but they are a controversial no-call against the Chiefs away from being 4-1. Raheem Morris has done an excellent job with the Falcons' defense, and Kirk Cousins has the dynamic Atlanta offense rolling. Carolina is a complete mess right now, and Andy Dalton is coming off back-to-back below average starts. Atlanta played on TNF in Week 5 and is coming off a mini-bye week. I'm not buying into the over-hyped trend of backing underdogs of 5+ points here. The Panthers have home field advantage, but I still see the Falcons winning by 7+ here.

The Panthers turned back into a pumpkin in Chicago last week, but this line has gotten out of hand. Atlanta was -3 on the lookahead and won another close game (just +3 in points in regulation in their three wins) where the defense looked terrible, and even if you think they're an above-average team, they'd have to be facing the Bryce Young-led Panthers offense going nowhere like the Chargers in Week 2 for this line to have a chance of making sense. If the Panthers punch it in at the goal line at the beginning of the Bengals loss and go on to score 31 instead of lose by 10, this line is four at best.

Whatever boost the Panthers initially derived from the change to Andy Dalton at QB, well, it’s over. They haven’t covered the last two weeks after rising up and knocking off the Raiders and I don’t see them challenging here. Kirk Cousins hasn’t gotten more comfortable and more effective each week with he Falcons and faces a very suspect pass defense here off extra rest from a Thursday night game. Falcons defense is better than it showed against the Bucs, and the Panthers aren’t going to be able to keep this as close as they’d like just by pounding Chuba Hubbard on the ground. Carolina’s head coach is overmatched and his staff lacks experience. Falcons have covered in four of the last six vs CAR.