The downtrodden Panthers scored a season-high 30 points and amassed nearly 400 yards of total offense in their near-upset of the Packers two weeks ago. That apparent offensive breakout was countered by a thudding dud that equated to 142 yards and 0 points against the Jags last week. Even so, this sets up as a tenuous spot for a suddenly fading Bucs squad that needs a win to secure a playoff berth. A three-point game feels inevitable in this one.

It's been a hot streak for Rachaad White. The over here is 10-1 and our model has him projected for 31 yards. Baker Mayfield is playing hurt and his deep ball accuracy could be affected. He might look to get the ball out quickly to avoid hits resulting in more short passes and screens to White. White accounts for 13.5% of team receiving yards so he should hit the number with even 165 total passing yards.

Baker Mayfield was a full participant in Tampa Bay's practice on Thursday, and I expect a comfortable win (and third straight division title) for the Bucs on Sunday. The Panthers allow 25.4 points per game, and I anticipate their motivation being low -- think '1-2-3...Cancun' in the team huddle type of motivation. I expect Tampa to score closer to 30 points than 20 in this one. Lock this in at plus-money.

This is one of the handful of Week 18 games that actually matter. The Bucs clinch the NFC South title with a win, while all the Panthers really have to play for is trying to worsen the first round pick they have to send to Chicago as part of the Bryce Young deal. Baker Mayfield practiced Thursday, and is low-key having the best season of his career. I like Tampa Bay by a touchdown or more here.

The Bucs need a win to make the playoffs after getting upset last week, and I believe they'll get it against a lifeless Panthers team playing out the string. Carolina's defense had been impressive for much of the second half but whether it was injuries or lack of motivation, that unit played just as bad against the Jaguars as the offense, which got shut out. With Baker Mayfield practicing Thursday, I expect the Bucs to be close to full strength for this matchup and win by at least a touchdown.

White has been a workhorse of late, with 20+ carries in six of the Bucs' last nine games. He's 85 yards short of 1,000 on the ground and if game flow goes according to plan, he'll have plenty of chances to salt away the game late. Plus he has exceeded 20 yards receiving in 10 of his last 11 games. I think this is a very good value under 105 total yards.

Even if it's not going incredibly well early on, the Bucs have to stay balanced here. Too much Baker Mayfield is a problem in these must-win spots, as they found out last week. Panthers D is far better against the pass than the run, and they can't get cute in the RZ. Those are White's carries. No vultures here. White has 20+ carries in each of the Bucs last 5 wins. He has 20 or more in three of the last four games. I expect a low-scoring, tight divisional games where mistakes have to kept to a minimum. Todd Bowles will want to run the ball.

The Buccaneers are the NFC South champions with a win and Baker could clinch Comeback Player of the Year with a solid performance (if they choose to give it to someone who actually played this year). On the other hand, Carolina has officially clinched the worst record in the NFL. The Panthers basically quit in a 26-0 loss to the Jaguars last week and have lost 11 of 12 against the NFC this season. I don't see any fight left in this team, Bucs are also10-6 ATS.

If the Bucs are able to win against the Panthers, it would punch their ticket to the postseason. Normally, this high stakes affair would be enough to motivate the opponent, but I don't know if the Panthers are capable enough offensively to pull it off.