We can't play the carries prop yet but I expect an active day in the elements for Elliott. Belichick will want to pound the ball against a wilting Jets D that seems to be quitting on its coach some. Jets don't hold up well to volume in the run game and I see a risk-averse game plan from The Hoodie in his final game in New England.

Admittedly, it’s a basic take to suggest the Patriots are not going to lose what might be Bill Belichick’s final game with the team. Still, the Patriots are not going to lose what might be Bill Belichick’s final game with the team. New England has won 15 straight over New York, and outside of last week’s surprising effort at Cleveland (still a double-digit loss), the Jets have largely been non-competitive against quality defenses. The Pats have been better offensively with Bailey Zappe at QB and actually tested opponents. New England has the best rushing defense in the league, which should negate NY’s one strength on offense.

The Patriots have won 15 straight in this series. In what might be iconic coach Bill Belichick's last game with them, there's no reason to expect a different outcome with a New England team that has the better current form against a Jets club that has lost seven of its last nine.

There is expected to be a lot of snow for this game, which is why the total has plummeted below 30 points. The Patriots are 12-0 in snow games in Foxborough, and there's no reason to expect them to falter here in what could be Bill Belichick's final game with the franchise. They'll be up against a Jets team with nothing to play for and with Trevor Siemian at QB, and the Jets defense has shown the ability to fall flat when things are going south for their offense. Belichick will have the better game plan for this one and his players will have better execution, which should lead to a Patriots win.

The Patriots have actually closed the season pretty strong with wins against the Broncos and Steelers and competitive losses against the Bills and Chiefs. Now they face a Jets team that has likely turned the page toward next season, where they'll hope to start fresh with Aaron Rodgers. There's certainly an added element to this one with Bill Belichick perhaps coaching his last game for the Patriots, but even without that narrative, I expect a spirited effort from the Patriots on Sunday.

Horrible weather in a stadium where the swirling winds really wreak havoc on the best of quarterbacks. Both teams have below average NFL QB's and both have solid defenses. My model has the total 30.5 but with bad weather I take off a full touchdown. 23.5 is the right number.

Purely a weather play as here's the Sunday afternoon forecast for Foxborough: "Potential winter storm. Periods of snow. High around 35F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches." I think a snow storm would be fitting for the hoodie's final game as Pats coach because maybe Bill Belichick's career goes very differently (ditto Tom Brady's) if not for the Tuck Rule absurdness in the Patriots' 16-13 OT win over the Raiders in a blizzard in the Divisional Round following the 2001 season on the way to the team's first Super Bowl title. That memorable game was the last at old Foxboro Stadium (not sure why it was named slightly different from the official city name).

It's The Hoodies last game as coach in NE, ending an unprecedented era in league history, and everyone knows it. His team has displayed more fight and consistency than the Jets down the stretch. They roll up 21/G with Zappe (they hit that total once in the first 12 games), and the D is still legit. They ran 40 times in a 15-10 win at NY, and can run on them here too. Belichick has beat them 15 straight times and 12 straight at home. Pats 3-0-1 ATS in last 4. NYJ 1-8 ATS in their last 9. Belichick will run up the score if at all possible vs a franchise he detests. Bills and Chiefs both recently had their hands full with the Pats.

This looks like a "total" that maybe should have been posted when Tim Boyle or Zach Wilson was at QB for the Jets, or Mac Jones for the Patriots. While no Pro Bowler, Trevor Siemian at least plays the part of a serviceable NFL QB for New York, whose games have landed on 58 and 57, respectively, the last two weeks with Siemian taking snaps and Breece Hall making big plays. Meanwhile the Patriots have scored 21 or more in four straight games with Bailey Zappe at the QB spot. Play Jets-Patriots "Over"

Tthe Patriots have been playing decent football since before midseason, with wins in two of the last four, on the road, no less, at Pittsburgh and Denver, dealing serious blows to the playoff hopes of each, while also playing the Bills and Chiefs tough the past month. The common thread in all of those is QB Bailey Zappe, providing much better leadership than did Mac Jones. Meanwhile the Jets seem more interested in getting their season finished, though the offense has looked more competent with serviceable journeyman QB Trevor Siemian. If this is to be Bill Belichick's last game coaching the Patriots, how ironic to come vs. the team whose job he spurned before taking the Foxborough gig in 2000! Play Patriots

The Patriots have beaten the Jets 15 straight times, and I don't see New England losing Sunday in what might be Bill Belichick's last game as head coach. New York's defense was stout for much of the year but just gave up a season-high 428 yards in a blowout loss in Cleveland. The Jets are expected to start Trevor Siemian, who's thrown 2 TD passes and four INTs in four games. Bailey Zappe has been erratic, but the Pats have covered four straight against the closing number with him at quarterback. Over the past three games, the Jets are giving up 5.6 yards per play compared to New England's 4.6 yards per play allowed.