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Awfully good price considering it feels like a get-right game for Henry after being shut down by Houston in Week 15. He had two TD runs in each of the previous three games this season. Seattle is one of the NFL's worst teams against the run, including allowing 19 ground TDs.
It is entirely possible that the Titans were given a better chance to win when QB Will Levis was ruled out due to his ankle injury, and Ryan Tannehill back in the saddle. Levis had really had only two good efforts this season, and even though Tannehill looks to be on his way out of Nashville, his record in recent years shows a lot of wins. Derrick Henry also should be focused after one of his worst-ever games last week vs. the Texans. Geno Smith apparently back in the saddle for the Seahawks after Drew Lock led that rousing win over the Eagles on Monday, but it's been nearly two months since Seattle covered a game as a favorite. Play Titans
Geno Smith looked terrific in practice and should dissect a weak Titans pass defense missing several regulars. On the other side, the Seahawks' pass rush has surged since Leonard Williams' arrival and should take advantage of a Tennessee team allowing the second-highest pressure rate. Lay the field goal with a Seattle team that should build off last Monday's thrilling home win over Philly.
Don’t love the Seahawks playing a road game on a short week, but Seattle is 5-2 ATS on the road this season with three straight such covers. The Titans fell back to Earth last week after their fortunate win over the Dolphins two weeks ago, and we have seen Tennessee struggle against mobile quarterbacks like Geno Smith, who returns this week. With Kenneth Walker also starting, the Seahawks have two key offensive weapons back while fighting for their playoff lives. This will likely get the hook added Sunday before kickoff, so best to jump on Seattle at -3.
Geno Smith is back, which is good news for D.K. Metcalf. He has a dream matchup against the Titans, specifically CB Tre Avery. The second-year undrafted corner owns a 49.9 coverage grade per PFF. Look for Metcalf to clear this prop number for the ninth time this season.
The Seahawks have all the momentum coming off a huge upset win over Philly on MNF and they should be getting Geno Smith back. Meanwhile, Will Levis is expected to miss the game and the Titans secondary has resembled swiss cheese all season. The Seahawks’ pass defense hasn’t been great, but their front four can get pressure and should be able to limit Derrick Henry just enough to cover.
DK Metcalf gets a very friendly matchup against a Titans pass funnel that is 30th in EPA allowed per dropback and 29th in coverage grade. DK is undoubtedly the Seahawks WR1 and his impressive target profile suggests that as well. The Titans are terrible at defending the deep middle portions of the field and that is where DK often operates as he possesses the deepest ADOT of any Seattle pass catcher. Look for Metcalf to continue to be the engine of the Seahawks passing attack in what is a tremendous matchup.
Tennessee has allowed opposing kickers to convert 38 three-pointers this season, including 10 in the last three weeks combined. Myers ranks third in made field goals (28) and second in attempts (35). Combine those two factors together and likely positive game script for Seattle, meaning Myers should see multiple opportunities in Week 16.
Derek Henry's inefficiency last week was truly historic. 16 rushes for like 20 yards. Spears was the only guy who could love the ball for them, the pass game is in tatters, Will Levis isn't very good and he's not fully healthy and they need to the more elusive back to make things happen. Oddly, Henry got way more looks in the screen game, too, but I have to think that changes. Spears is way over this in two of the last three games. I'm projecting 14-15 touches for him and this number is light against what has been a suspect rush defense.
Tennessee may have to play without Will Levis….and their offensive line can’t spring DHenry who has struggled the last two games. Plus, Pete Carroll loves to run it this time of year….under.
The Seahawks saved their season on Monday with the upset win, and they should stay in win-or-go-home mode the rest of the way. The Titans' season is already done, and we don't really know what a Mike Vrabel-coaching team playing out the string looks like. But the Teair Tart dismissal is key for a team that's struggled against the run recently while dealing with injuries up front. The Seahawks defense showed up on Monday and will have much easier matchups the rest of the way, and they should excel against a Titans offense that had no juice following its opening drive against Houston. Seahawks win by at least a field goal here.