The Falcons are home so hopefully that means the good Desmond Ridder. But this is mostly because Tampa Bay is without three key defenders in DT Vita Vea, LB Devin White and CB Jamel Dean. One at each level is far from ideal. Top Falcons CB AJ Terrell has cleared concussion protocol and will start.

Otton was oddly shut out of the box score last week, with zero targets against the Panthers after his role in the passing game appeared to be growing. He had 5 catches on 6 targets in the first matchup against Atlanta, and the Bucs have resolved to get him back in the fold. There's value at this price for him to clip a milestone he's reached 6 times this season.

Although the Bucs have lost six of eight, they will be in the hunt to win the weak NFC South with a victory Sunday. Tampa Bay's best performances this season have come on the road, and the Falcons have zero three-game winning streaks under Arthur Smith.

This is really it for the Bucs, who would effectively fall three games behind the Falcons in the NFC South with just four games to play if a loser on Sunday at Mercedes Benz. ATL would thus get the extra edge by winning the tiebreaker thanks also to its 16-13 win on October 22, but a Tampa bay win levels the standings atop the NFC South and the tiebrekaers, so it's all to play for here with the Bucs. Though Baker Mayfield has dealt with some inconsistencies, his combo with Mike Evans is the most-dangerous connection by far on this field. That's because the AT: offense too often stagnates, with erratic leadership from QB Desmond Ridder. Play Bucs

Falcons No. 1 wideout Drake London was a non-factor in Week 13, catching one of five targets for 8 yards in a 13-8 win at the Jets. But now he's back home against Tampa Bay's vulnerable pass defense, which won't have starting corner Jamel Dean (ankle/foot). In his last four games in Atlanta, London has racked up 91, 125, 78 and 67 yards. In the Week 7 matchup in Tampa Bay, London caught six of seven targets for 54 yards. Look for London to be a big factor in what will be a higher-scoring game than expected.

Tampa Bay seeks same-season revenge after losing 16-13 at home back in October. A win by the Bucs would tie them with Atlanta for first place. The Bucs have lost their past three road games, but they are 5-1 ATS away from home. The Falcons are 3-8 ATS their past 11 games.

White's been over this in 6 of his p 7 -- the only game he didn't hit this number was at the 49ers, which is understandable. The Falcons run defense has been scary but they do allow some numbers to running backs through the air, which White took advantage of in their Week 7 meeting (6-65-0). More importantly, Atlanta will be without LB Nate Landman and DT David Onyemata, both of whom have graded out very well against the run. Their expected replacements aren't nearly as proven and will make for an attractive matchup for the Bucs to attack with White, who totaled 99 yards in that Week 7 game.

Before you think I'm crazy for picking a Desmond Ridder passing over, hear me out. The Bucs have a bottom-five defense against the pass and have allowed opposing QBs to throw for an average of 295 yards per game since their Week 5 bye week. Ridder threw for 250 yards against them in Week 7 and our AI PickBot is expecting a similar result again this week. We'll take our chances that the NFC South leading Falcons decide to air it out some again this Sunday.

The Falcons offense looked terrible against the Jets last week, but they should be better here at home against a beat-up Bucs defense that didn't look very good against a mediocre Carolina run game last week. Atlanta's defense is quietly solid across the board, ranking 10th in yards per play where they're top 10 against the pass and run, along with second in third-down success rate and first in red-zone success rate. They'll have a better chance of covering if A.J. Terrell clears concussion protocol, but he did manage a limited practice Wednesday. I have this line at Falcons -3.

With a lot at stake, I expect both defenses to really ramp up the pressure on each QB. In their first meeting, it was Desmond Ridder's turnovers inside the 3 yard line that ultimately doomed the Falcons. I like how they're playing currently on offense, and I don't foresee him being as lax with the ball as he was earlier in the year.

He rarely leaves the field and he's a top receiving back in this league and I expect a nice workload on the road here. Can bake in at least three targets, and he can make things happen after the catch. Caught all six targets for 65 yards in the first meeting He's over this seven times this season and I see more work in pass game here. White's carries were up in recent weeks (and targets down) but that was against really poor run defenses. Not sure feeding him 15+ carries will make sense in this game but getting the ball in his hands is imperative. Has a reception of 20 yards or more in five of the last seven games.

I don't care what the match-up is (top corner AJ Terrell is in concussion protocol) , Baker Mayfield is giving Evans a chance to make plays, and Evans is making plays every week. He has 6 catches or more in three of the last four games, and five receptions in the other game. He had six catches on eight targets in the first meeting with ATL and has 43 targets in the last four weeks. Against the NFL's top RZ defense, Mayfield will look for his most trusted receiver. when it matters most. I also see them trying to establish Evans early here and having him show up big in the early-game script.

The Bucs are an elite run stuffing team ... but the Falcons ran 38 times for 156 yards on them in the first meeting, and did it with Bijan basically not playing (1 carry). He's being fed the ball now and sees plenty of action in the screen game and the Falcons can't have much faith in Ridder. Put the ball in your best weapon's hands in a huge divisional game as you chase a home playoff game. Bucs playing fifth road game in seven-game span and should be fatigued. Could see an explosive catch or two with the Bucs LBs banged up.

He is 13/13 at home through 6 games. The Falcons redzone offense has been an issue pretty much all season, and the last time these teams played Desmond Ridder, who is not good, turned the ball over three times in the RZ. Can't let that happen again! Bucs have the 4th-best RZ defense in the NFL. Koo kicked 3 FG in the first meeting between these teams and he's good in the clutch and can hit from distance, especially at home.