The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have been dominant against NFC teams. Baltimore should run all over Los Angeles, and off a bye, there's no doubt the Ravens will be ready for the Rams’ run game, which opened up its passing last week. LA and Matthew Stafford have beaten up on rough defenses, and while this might be close in the first half, Baltimore pulling away over the final 30 minutes feels like an inevitability. Hate that the hook came in and made this tougher to stomach, but Sean McVay is 6-15-1 ATS against teams with extra preparation, and the weather works in the Ravens’ favor. The Rams offense is far worse on the road, and its defense is the weakest unit in the game.

Driven down into the 30s by the weather forecast, the total has crept back into the 40s even as rain is expected throughout the game. The Rams have held their last four foes to 20 points or below, though those offenses cannot hold a wet candle to the Ravens'. Baltimore wields the league's top-rated scoring defense. Both sides can live with rain limiting the throwing. L.A. recently unveiled talented RB Kyren Williams while the Ravens can rely on QB Lamar Jackson's legs. Increased rushing plays on both sides would contribute to an Under.

The Rams have reappeared in the NFC wild card race after three straight wins, but those successes deserve some examination. The home win over Seattle was fortunate on November 19; the win at Arizona expected on Nov. 26, as Sean McVay has yet to lose a game in Glendale. Last week, LA was gifted the Browns with Joe Flacco making his first start after signing just days previously. No such luck this week vs. the rested Ravens, in position to secure home-field playoff edge on the AFC side and unlike last year with a healthy Lamar Jackson for December. The last two NFC entries that visited M&T Bank Stadium, the Lions and Seahawks, were beaten a combined 75-9. Play Ravens

We've detailed how Keaton Mitchell out of 11 personnel could be a problem for the Rams. But the heavier Gus Bus running power against an undersized DL - and one that lacks depth to withstand a 40-carry rushing attack, will break LA. Edwards will be leaned on with the lead late and he's more trusted in those situations that Mitchell - who can get 40 yards in one burst. Edwards went over this 10 times in an 11-game span and still had 8 carries in Week 12, pretty close. Given the weather and the Rams lack of space-eaters stopping the run besides Aaron Donald, it's hard to envision a game-script without this sledgehammer getting at least 10 carries. I bet its more like 14 rushes.

You can see I am all over rushing props in this game on both sides. Every indicator points to it. And Edwards getting multiple scores from goal-to-go-situations is nothing new for the Ravens and if the downpours and 40-mph win burst deter John Harbaugh from trying Justin Tucker, then I see them trying to extend drives rather than punt which could give this ripe opportunity to cash. Edwards hit this 3 times in a 4-game span from Weeks 8-11, and his role was a little less vs a Chargers D in Week 12 but I see it ramping way up again against the Rams.

The Rams have one of the lightest defensive line rotations in the NFL. Really only go about a half-dozen dee and are short on 325-pound space eaters. Ravens can get nasty in the run game and wear you down and Gus is their drive finisher. And I expect plenty of heavy personnel packages in the redzone, This is a nice return for a prop that cashed five times in a row prior to Week 12, when he had just 8 carries. Edwards scored 9 rushing TDs between Weeks 7-11, In a bad weather game against a middling defense traveling cross country off a bye I see plenty of chances to Gus to punch one or two in

Lamar Jacksons running always increases in Dec. and with poor tackle play and no one clicking in the downfield passing game and no Mark Andrews, he will be running more now with more designed runs as well. Add in kneel downs and I could see 12-14 attempts. They've held him back but Lamar will take off a game and was doing it before their bye even when he was looking a little hobbled. He's over this in 5 of 7 and had 8 rushes in one of the other games (a loss to the Browns in which he was hurting and lost with no kneel downs). I see more RZ runs for him as well than we've seen in recent weeks.

Wiliams has become a feature back for the Rams, this is a dome team up against the NFL's top sack team playing in wild wind gusts up to 45mph and constant rain. Sean McVay saw what the Ravens did to NFC chum like Seattle and Detroit at home. He will run the ball a ton and keep this close. WIlliams last three games: 17 carries, 25, 22. Ravens are just 21st in yards/carry allowed. I see McVay being patient with - and committed to - his lead back.

This is projected to be an ugly weather game, and I'm not sure how much Matthew Stafford will be able to go downfield. The Rams may be best served using the receivers to clear out area for Williams to work both in the run game and the pass game. He's recorded 61 and 24 receiving yards in two games since returning from IR with at least five targets in each game, and I believe he'll be even more involved this week. I'm surprised this number isn't above 20.

Williams has enjoyed an excellent breakout campaign, and he has served as the engine of Sean McVay's offense, seemingly out of nowhere. Williams is averaging a robust 5.1 yards per carry and has scored 10 TDs in seven appearances, averaging 110 scrimmage yards per game. Williams is facing one of the toughest possible tests in a rested Ravens defense that is as healthy as it has been all season coming off a bye week. Baltimore ranks seventh in defensive run grade and checks in at 11th in EPA allowed per rush. Look for Baltimore to prioritize slowing down Williams on Sunday.

If you've read me at any point over the last few years, you know this flies in the face of my #brand. I am the Rams guy, the Matthew Stafford guy. This is a massive number for the Ravens at home, a number that looks surprising given how well the Rams are playing lately. But the Ravens are a bad matchup, especially off the bye. Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp are banged up and the Ravens will blitz aggressively. The. Rams don't have the defensive personnel to keep up with this Baltimore offense, even with Mark Andrews missing. Baltimore's record against NFC teams when Lamar Jackson is under center is outrageous and the Ravens have destroyed teams at home this year especially in the NFC.

Baltimore under John Harbaugh has been stellar coming off of a bye week. In addition to the added prep, they have an advantage in this game in the trenches. Expect them to keep Matt Stafford under duress the entire game and put the rest of the AFC on notice.

The Rams three-game win streak got them to 6-6 on the season, but I attribute most of the winning to their weaker opponents. The only thing I attribute to the Ravens is that they are a team on a mission. It’s almost the same result every week, they win by 10 or more, or they lose and when they win but don’t cover – like at Arizona – it’s flukey. They’ve won six of their last seven and they’ve covered five of the wins. They are the second-best cover team in the NFL. They are reliable. I bet the Ravens to cover.

This is when Lamar usually turns to activating his legs the most, and given he's run less than in previous years, but with n downfield passing game and go-to pass catcher Mark Andrews out for the season and both his tackles struggling in pass protection, look for that to change. He has just 2 runs over 20 yards all season and has been sliding a lot, but fighting for the top seed in the AFC, expect more designed option runs. Still 5th in the NFL at 5.1/carry and with great tackle-avoiding metrics, there is plenty of room to ramp this up. Just one game over 65+ rush yards so far this season but he'll top that several times down the stretch starting here.

The Rams have become a run-first team, and in 3 weeks since their bye they are destroying teams on 1st down runs (6.2/carry - 2nd in the NFL). and WIlliams is leading the way. Ravens are just 21st in rush D, they have been gutted by bad running teams like the Bengals lately, and BAL 1st down rush D is even worse (26th, 4.6/carry). Williams has 20 rushes or more in two of the last three games. He's among league leaders at 5.1/carry and even against stacked boxes (8 or more defenders), Rams rank 3rd in the NFL over the past three weeks. I love this matchup for him, with him fresh late in the season from all the missed time earlier on IR.

His workload has started to tick up but there is still a lot of room for more. Weather forecast looks rough for chucking the ball around, and the Ravens are already the most run-heavy team in the NFL. Mitchell in the backfield with Lamar Jackson will become even more of a thing. Rams run D is 14th overall, but if you dig down they really struggle in light boxes with 3 WR on the field (24th with 4.9/carry). Mitchell running out of 11 Personnel: 15 - 197 - 1 TD. That's 13.1/carry, folks. The heavy stuff with Gus Edwards and the FB doesn't well vs. the Rams. This kid gets the corner and goes for major chunk yards and he's fresh as can be.

The Rams are a run-first team coming out of the bye, and facing an ugly forecast here (I live in B-more) of persistent wind gusts up to 45mph and lots of rain, and with the Ravens leading the NFL in sacks, I see volume on the ground. Pass game and kick game could be limited. Ravens are running the ball more than any team in the NFL (51.2%), even more than they did a year ago. Expect that % to increase with poor LT and RT play and facing top pass rushers. Rams allow just 17 PPG last 4 weeks. Ravens have No 1 pass D and scoring D but are bad against the run. Ravens have been an under team, especially at home.

The Ravens come out of a bye to face a hot Rams offense, with Matthew Stafford having a lot of success despite not really leaning on Cooper Kupp. That Rams offense is 10th in yards per play but had trouble scoring before the last two weeks and now faces the league's top defense on the road. While the Rams defense is also posting solid numbers thanks in part to dominating Arizona and Cleveland, this is their toughest test since giving up 43 points in Dallas. Baltimore hasn't covered its last three games out of the bye but dominated yardage in all three, so I'm chalking that up as a fluke. This line should be Ravens -7.5, but I feel Baltimore will win by double digits.