A few experts on here seem to believe in Jake Browning. Guess I'll bite only because the Bengals have the superior overall roster to the Colts, are at home and Gardner Minshew certainly isn't trustworthy. Browning (Washington) defeated Minshew (Washington State) 28-15 in the 2018 Apple Cup. Inactives-wise, the Bengals appear in better shape.

There is now value on the underdog side of a spread that has moved as much as 5.5 points at some outlets. This appears a clear overreaction to the Bengals' strong performance Monday night against Jacksonville. The Colts have won four straight and are 4-1 on the road this season.

This total has been steamed up from 39.5 and there's officially value taking it the other way. Although Colts QB Gardner Minshew tends to be an Over funnel with his erratic play, both clubs should look to establish the run game to offset potentially uneven quarterback play. This should be a bit of an uglier grinder than the total suggests.

I'm a little late to the party but I'll take my chances someone doesn't win by one point. Jake Browning looked great on Monday Night at Jacksonville. Browning completed 32 out of 37 passes for 345 yards and one touchdown. Bravo! Indy's defense ranks 27th in points allowed at 24.7.

Ja'Marr Chase must feel rejuvenated now that he has confidence in Jake Browning at QB. He has hit this receiving yardage total in the last 2 full games with Jake Browning. He gets a great matchup against a Colts secondary and he's the clear #1 option among the Bengal WRs. There may be a bit of wind and rain in the forecast, but it doesn't appear to be enough to affect the passing game. Look for Chase to have another big day.

As you know, I was on Jake Browning last week in the prop market and he exceeded my already favorable impression of him. This week he faces a Colts team that has plenty of holes on defense and that is without its star RB for a second game in a row. Don't get me wrong, Gardner Minshew and this Colts offense have been good, but I think the Bengals, with their full compliment of weapons on offense, churn out more points at home behind Jake Browning.

This line has moved in a major way thanks to the performance of Jake Browning on Monday night where he looked like peak Joe Burrow. That has erased from the market's memory the prior week where the Bengals mustered 10 points at home against a Steelers defense that just made the Patriots look like a functional offense. The truth is somewhere in the middle, but this line is saying these teams are even, and they're not. The Colts have a positive yards per play and points differential, while the Bengals are well below zero in both, and that's featuring Joe Burrow most of the season. I'll fade the big market move as I think the opener was closer to correct.

As well as QB Jake Browning played in Monday night's win over Jacksonville, the Bengals would be smart to once again lean on the run against Indianapolis. The Colts are allowing the 7th most rushing yards per game and have allowed starting RBs to rush for 100+ yards in two of their last three games. Plus, in the last two weeks with Browning at the helm, Mixon has topped 40 receiving yards in both games. A 100+ combined yard day is well within reach for Mixon on Sunday.

Moss has been an absolute workhorse anytime he has appeared without Jonathan Taylor this season. Moss is averaging close to 95% of the team's backfield touches without Taylor in the lineup, which borders on ridiculous. Moss will have the luxury of facing one of the worst run defenses in the league Sunday. The Bengals are 30th in defensive run grade and 26th in run stop win rate. Moss should receive all the work he can handle on Sunday, and the Colts are unlikely to be in a position where they abandon the run.

How about Jake Browning? Impressive Prime Time performance last week vs the Jags. This week I am isolating is rushing yards prop based on the small sample size that we've seen. Browning has averaged 23.7 rushing yards in the 3 games he's played in since Joe Burrow went down (about 7.9 yards per attempt). Defensively, the Colts have have allowed 13+ rush yards to opposing QB’s in 61% games this season and have given up the 4th most rushing yards to the position in total.

The total in this game is creeping up with weather expected to not be as big a factor as initially anticipated. Even if the forecast turns south, I expect Zack Moss to have a big game that features at least one TD. Either Moss or Jonathan Taylor has scored in nine of Indy's last 11 games, though it didn't happen last week in Moss' return to the lead back role. He'll face a softer defense here, as Cincy has allowed 11 TDs to RBs in 12 games, with only eight teams allowing more. I'd play this prop up to -125.

The Colts have scored at least 20 in every game they have played in the US this season, and can score and play quickly. The Bengals offense is very viable with Browning at QB, and Zac Taylor is calling an aggressive game and letting it all hang out with Joe Burrow gone and nothing to lose. Neither D is special and Bengals are 32nd in yards/play allowed. Six of last Colts games are at 40 or higher (only exception was in Germany). Five of the last six Bengals games are 42 or higher. Colts have scored 27+ in five of six.

I love Jake Browning. As you can see I played his props over. He is efficient and will generate points. Plus the Cincy D is a bit of a paper Tiger. Minshew to Pittman is real. Over.