Undoubtedly an interesting matchup given the Steelers offensive struggles and the Bengals playing with Jake Browning behind center. Though Browning looked capable in his limited time last week, going up against the Steelers and Mike Tomlin in this spot is not ideal. Yes, I said the same last week about Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but it was the Browns defense that won that game. Pittsburgh's offense and Jaylen Warren should be rejuvenated with a new offensive play caller, even if minimally. The Steelers are 3-0 straight up and ATS after losses this season with six straight ATS covers after defeats under Tomlin. Pittsburgh under a field goal in a slugfest makes sense.

The QB matchup is a push at best for the Steelers and could be an edge for the Bengals, who saw Jake Browning look serviceable against Baltimore in place of the injured Joe Burrow. Now, they've had a week to game plan around his strengths. This is a value spot on a Cincinnati club that is just a game behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings.

Jaylen Warren continues to prove why he is the more explosive and talented RB in PIttsburghs backfield with three consecutive games with at least 88 rushing yards, while averaging 12 rushing attempts per game, and a ridiculous 9.1 yards per carry over that 3 game sample. While I don't expect Warren to sustain those numbers, I do think he has earned 12-15 rushing attempts moving forward and with Steelers OC Matt Canada out the door, the interim OC Eddie Faulkner would be wise to lean heavily on Warren. I expect that to be the case today against a dismal Bengals run D that is 29th in EPA allowed per rush and 29th in Run Stop Win Rate.

Understandable that many expect the Bengals to fade out of the race in wake of Joe Burrow's injury. But the real SOS here might be with the Steelers, who moved out beleaguered OC Matt Canada this week amid ongoing offensive issues. Many AFC North insiders suspect Jake Browning will be an adequate fill-in for Burrow after running with the first string most pf the preseason while Burrow tended to his strained calf Play Bengals

Jaylen Warren has hit this mark in 3 straight games, but the really impressive part is that he's done it on an average of less than 12 rush attempts per game. Somehow he is continuing to split carries with the extremely inefficient Najee Harris, but with a new Offensive Coordinator in Pittsburgh, it wouldn't surprise me if we see Warren get a few more touches. Either way, against a porous Bengal rush defense, Jaylen Warren should get there.

Steelers corner Patrick Peterson is struggling this season (59.4 PFF coverage grade), and he should be matched up often with Trenton Irwin. The third-year pro out of Stanford should be utilized Sunday, given Tee Higgins' absence. Look for Irwin to clear this number for the third straight game.

The Bengals are in the thick of the playoff race, had extra rest, and should come out highly motivated despite losing Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury. Jake Browning wasn't a disaster against the Ravens, and he should be better at home following a full week of first-team reps. It is eye-opening to read about how Browning, 27, earned his way into this coveted job backing up Burrow. He will be prepared for this moment, and for T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers and their pedestrian offense shouldn't be favored in this spot.

We believe in a heavy workload for Warren here, for good reason, against a bad rush defense. And Kenny Pickett cant throw for TDs so they score on the ground. And Warren can score from outside the redzone, and even with Harris still getting some run in the RZ, Warren doesn't need to be goal-to-go to score on ground and can win big in screen game, too. CIN just 24th in rushes/TD allowed and 31st in yards/carry and 24th in rushing TDs allowed. Warren has scored in two straight and with coordinator change I expect his volume to increase even more. He is too elusive not to see more of the ball for one of the worst offenses in football.

The Steelers have had a routine all season where they lost one game, win two straight, lose, and so on. They’re 6-4 and they’ve done it with the No. 28 offense and the No. 27 defense. But the bet here mainly stems from the Steelers pass rush against Jake Browning making his first NFL start. Joe Burrow is out. Browning mistakes expected is my play. It’s what the 2023 Steelers do and they lead the NFL with a +11 turnover margin. Steelers to cover.

Trent Irwin is set to make his third consecutive star with Tee Higgins out due to a hamstring injury. Irwin has played at least 76% of the snaps while averaging 6.3 targets, 50 receiving yards, and 4.3 receptions with Higgins on then shelf. It's obviously worth noting that Joe Burrow will miss the game and will be replaced by Jake Browning. At first glance this would appear to be a steep downgrade, however Irwin commanded a 36% target share with Browning under center. It is unlikely Irwin will replicate that large of a target share, however I feel this number is way too low considering he's in an every down role and Browning looks quite comfortable targeting him.

Since starting to displace Harris as the starting RB, Warren is at 88 rushing yards or more each of last 3 games. And that's despite averaging just 11.7 yards/G in that stretch. That's going to increase as the Steelers lean more into their much-improved run blocking. Bengals cant stop the run game. Warren has a long rush of 20+ the last 3 games; that gets us almost halfway home. He and Harris both go over 50 rushing yds. I'm building parlays around PIT RBs and PIT to cover. Game probably goes under, too, with all the running and 2 very limited QBs.

The Steelers must win this game, the Bengals run defense stinks and Warren is the clear starter now and even more so after a coordinator change. He will see volume and go over 100 scrimmage years (play in alt markets). Ravens just road graded Bengals after losing Mark Andrews. Bengals 31st vs the run and allowing 5.1/carry the last 4 weeks. Steelers avg. 5.6/carry last three weeks since shuffling their OL. Warren can take a screen pass 50 yards at any moment to get us over this by halftime. I love a good no sweat. He probably clears this rushing alone.

Mike Tomlin ain’t losing to DTR, for his 1st NFL win and then Jake Browning, in his first NFL start, one week later. This week PIT gets Cincy, 31st offense in yards/play, and, most importantly, 31st in yards/rush. And even with Joe Burrow, the Bengals rank just 25th in yards/play. You saw then collapse when Burrow left the game last week, and I expect a pall here. Steelers desperate for a division win, and should road grade Steelers averaging 5.6/carry the last three weeks (4th best), and Jaylen Warren is a game breaker The return of Cam Heyward boosts the Steelers up front. Bengals allow 5.0/rush this season and even teams like the Texans, who have struggled on the ground, have gashed them lately.