The Steelers are getting outgained every week, and the Browns defense might be the league's best when fully healthy – particularly at home. And yet, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center against a Mike Tomlin-led defense, the Steelers need to be backed in this spot. Pittsburgh has won five straight games on the road, and if this game is close late – it should be – Kenny Pickett has proven he can lead a comeback, which DTR simply has not. We’re getting nearly a field goal in this situation, and I like the way Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris have been sharing the rock. Look for DTR to be under immense pressure and the Steelers to win straight up (moneyline sprinkle suggested).

Thompson-Robinson rushed for 28 TDs in his college career at UCLA, including 12 his senior season. Designed QB runs are a clear part of Cleveland's offense, as evidenced by Deshaun Watson's 26 carries for 142 yards and a score. The rookie QB's rushing ability is bound to be in play when Cleveland approaches the goal line.

I truly do not believe in the Steelers down the stretch, but I can not bet against this defense going up against DTR who threw 3 interceptions in his only start this season. The Browns may not score 10 points against the Steelers, give me Pittsburgh +2.

The spread on this game dropped 3 points amid the news of Deshaun Watson's season-ending injury for the Browns. Although rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson played poorly in his first start, he should be improved this time around and his weaknesses masked by a run-heavy attack. Cleveland let a win in Pittsburgh slip away in their first meeting and can't afford to do so again.

Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander have suffered season-ending injuries, which means linebacker Elandon Roberts will be wearing the green dot and playing nearly 100 percent of the snaps Sunday in Cleveland. Roberts is a solid run-stopper and the Browns likely will go run-heavy under rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I love Roberts to make at least nine combined tackles.

Tough week for QBs in the AFC North, with Joe Burrow going out for the Bengals a few days after it was announced that Deshaun Watson 9shoulder) was done for the season in Cleveland. Kevin Stefanski apparently turns back to UCLA rookie DTR, despite his struggles in his previous start vs. the Ravens, instead of PJ Walker. But the Steelers seem to have a knack of squeezing out these close decisions, and any getting points considering the Cleveland QB situation looks a worthwhile risk. Play Steelers

This is the central cog in the Browns attack with a rookie QB taking over. He was already the fulcrum and tore through a soft Steelers run D in the first meeting and ran behind the back-up RT tackle to a 100-plus yard outing Sunday against the Ravens. I expect some Wildcat looks for Ford and he has jumped ahead of Hunt on the depth chart and should get fed for 20 carries or more in what is shaping up to be a close and low-scoring football game. I see him rushing 17 times or more and going over 100 yards on the ground. Will tear off a few explosive runs along the way.

We have been playing Warren receiving props all season with great success and now that he has displaced Najee Harris is the lead runner, we're going into the scrimmage market. He'll see at least 4-5 targets and has the wiggle and burst to pick up chunk yards (or Lamar Jackson has a higher missed tackle %). Browns defense's weakness is on the ground and the Steelers long struggling run game now averaging 186 yards in the last two games. Browns worn out after heavily physical game at Baltimore on Sunday. He's thriving knowing he'll keep getting fed and doesn't have to hit a HR every carry.

I loved Ford in this spot even if Deshaun Watson was still playing. Now with Dorian Thompson-Robinson making his second start, he will get even more action against a bad Steelers run defense. No way they want DTR dropping back much vs. TJ Watt and Co and backup starting tackles. Ford poked big holes in Ravens vaunted D on Sunday, and he broke off 16 runs for 106 yards in the first meeting with PIT. I see a heavy workload and he will pop a few long runs. Run game guru Bill Callahan will scheme it up for Browns with back-up linemen again.

I liked PIT on the ML even if Watson was playing. PJ Walker has no shot against this defense. It will be a race to 40 rushes and I could see a defensive score from Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin owns the Browns the Steelers have 5 straight as a dog, and they beat Browns in the first meeting. Steelers have found a run game with Jaylen Warren leading the way. Browns have worst QB production in NFL and are without their top 2-3 tackles against TJ Watt. Steelers on a 4-0 run vs the AFC North. Browns haven’t won three in a row since start of '21 season. Browns QBs have been sacked 13 times in their last two games vs Steelers.

I'm sure you know by now about Deshaun Watson. I certainly assumed that PJ Walker would start this game -- think everyone did -- but now reports are it will be back to rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, so now I'm on Pittsburgh even though Kenny Pickett might as well be Kenny Powers. ("So as I was saying, the amount of money I am gonna be making would hurt your parents feelings.") Mike Tomlin owns the Browns and he owns rookie quarterbacks. Strange decision.

Just as the Browns were maneuvering toward a potentially deep playoff run, down goes QB Deshaun Watson for the season. The drop-off to PJ Walker is significant, as indicated by his five interceptions against one TD throw this year. Pittsburgh is responsible for the season's strangest statistical anomaly -- six straight-up wins despite never having outgunned an opponent. The formula is inexplicable but could work again as Cleveland finds points hard to come by with a backup behind center.