Metcalf is projected to catch 5-6 passes. Let’s be conservative and say 5. His median yards per catch is 15.7….putting his expected receiving yards in the mid 70s. Take the value.

Robinson is one of the top young running backs in the league and he'll be facing a Seahawks defense that has had some issues defending the run this season. The juice is kind of high on this one, but I expect Robinson to comfortably go over 11.5 carries.

This is a long travel however that doesn't have any value in my model. What does is Seattle's embrassing loss last week at Baltimore and Washington sell off two all-pro defensive ends. The loss of Sweat and Young cost Washington three points off their power rating. Seattle by 10.

It was about this time last season that Pete Carroll's rah-rah started to wear off a bit with the Seahawks, who ended up riding on fumes into the last NFC wild card. There is also suspicion that Carroll has squeezed as much as he can out of Geno Smith, who has tossed six picks compared to just 4 TDP across the past four games, with the "D name" (Drew Lock) starting to get whispered a bit more in the Northwest. Meanwhile, the fact Carroll runs similar stunts and blitzes as do the Patriots might be good news for Wash, which handled most of those Bill Belichick tricks last week when Sam Howell passed for 327 yards at Foxborough. Play Wash

After facing the Browns and Ravens in back-to-back weeks, the Seahawks should find Sunday's matchup a breath of fresh air. Washington ranks 29th in yards per play allowed (5.7) and plays a heavy dose of zone coverage. That sets up well for Geno Smith. Look for the hosts to put up at least 27 points in this prime bounceback spot.

The Seahawks got throughly dominated last week, losing to the red-hot Ravens 37-3. I expect Pete Carroll's crew to bounce back this week against a Washington team that is streaky and has to travel across the country for this game. I like Seattle by a touchdown in this one.

This looks like a potential spike week for D.K. Metcalf who commands an elite 40% of the Seahawks air yards and is facing a WAS pass defense that plays more man coverage than any defense in the league. Unsurprisingly the Commanders have surrendered more explosive pass plays than any defense as well, which bodes very well for DK as long he suits up for this game. Look for Metcalf to get loose in a matchup that checks all the boxes for a potential ceiling/spike game.

Seven wide receivers have totaled 99 or more receiving yards against Washington this season and this week, they face a player in Metcalf who seems to be due for a monster effort. He has one catch of 28+ yards in five of seven games this season and the Commanders have allowed the most yards on deep passes in the league this season. An 80+ yard effort seems well within reach for the Seattle superstar.

The Seahawks offense figures to have a much easier time this week, but I'm more worried about how their defense looked against the Ravens. One of the top units in the league for much of the season, they gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground and now rank 13th in yards per play. Washington's offense topped 400 yards for the first time two weeks ago and did it again last week, and they've scored 20-plus points in four of their last five. The Seahawks haven't topped 24 in five straight, and though you figure this is the perfect matchup to break that streak, they couldn't do it against the Giants, Bengals or Cardinals. This looks a lot like a 24-20 type of Seattle win.

This feels like the Detroit redemption game after their loss to Baltimore. Seattle is a good enough team to get almost shut out by an impressive Ravens team, and come back home to seek revenge. Washington cannot run, nor rush the passer in the same way the Ravens did to beat this Seattle team. Our model makes this a 10 point victory for the Seahawks.