I’m going to bite on the Eagles covering the touchdown. The Commanders are in a bad way right now, and the close game these teams played earlier this season was an aberration with both franchises trending in different directions since. Washington will not be able to protect Sam Howell, and I would not be surprised if we see Jacoby Brissett in this game. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts should have a field day against this defense. Philadelphia may have gotten plenty of help from the referees last week; it won’t need that help Sunday afternoon. Like this even more at -6.5, which is available, so shop around before kickoff.

The Eagles have arguably the leagues best run defense. Robinson has been losing touches to Chris Rodriguez who out gained Robinson last week and ended up with only 1 fewer rushing attempt. This looks like a great spot to fade Robinson who appears to be in a full blown committee.

Provided the Eagles don't suffer a letdown following their statement win over Miami, they should take care of business against a Washington club that has lost three of four and appears to be regressing. The Commanders outplayed the Eagles for much of their first meeting so it's unlikely Philadelphia takes them for granted.

The Commanders are significant underdogs for this game. They could find themselves falling into a big hole early, which would then lead to added pass attempts for Sam Howell in the second half. When these two teams met in Week 4, Howell attempted 41 passes in what was a narrow loss. Expect him to at least threaten for 40 pass attempts again in this rematch, making the over the side to play.

No one has been able to slow down A.J. Brown. He has recorded at least 127 receiving yards in five straight games, which included a Week 4 matchup against the Commanders in which he posted 175 receiving yards. One of the keys to his success has been receiving at least eight targets in all but one game this season. Given that the Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers in the league, look for Brown to have another stellar stat line.

Jalen Hurts has more interceptions than touchdown passes over the last three weeks, but one area that hasn't been lacking is his passing yardage. He's topped 275 passing yards in five straight, including totaling a season-high 319 pass yards against Washington a few weeks back. Since facing Philly, the Commanders have allowed more than 275 passing yards to Justin Fields, Desmond Ridder and Tyrod Taylor, while Russell Wilson also topped 300 yards on just 18 completions. Hurts should sail over this number if he stays healthy.

The Eagles enter this game relatively healthy but Jalen Hurts is managing a knee injury that limited him to his worst rushing day of the season last week against the Dolphins (11 carries for 21 yards). He was even worse in the first meeting with Washington outside of one 24-yard run, getting 10 yards on his other eight carries. This is already a relatively high number for Hurts, one he's been under in five of his seven games, but the knee injury and the excellent matchup against the awful Commanders pass defense should have him moving the ball with his arm rather than his legs.

I remain extremely bullish on DeVonta Smith despite the dip in production compared to last season. For starters Smith leads all WRs in route participation. He's also seen his ADOT increase by nearly three yards (last year the Eagles led the NFL in screen passes where Smith was heavily utilized). The Eagles are also passing more than they were last year and we're getting a hefty discount on this line coupled with a fantastic matchup against a dismal WAS pass defense. This one checks all the boxes for me and is as good as a spot as there is on the board this week. There is also some additional squeaky wheel narrative as well if you're into that sort of thing!

After a slow start to the 2023 season, Goedert has been on a roll lately, topping this total in four of seven games including three straight. Coincidentally, in the last three weeks, Washington has been clobbered by tight ends, allowing three different players to exceed this total and four to score touchdowns. If Darren Waller can put up a 7-98-1 line in an inept Giants offense against the Commanders, Goedert might be poised to surpass it. I'm playing this prop with confidence.

These two teams played an overtime game this month, but I'm not sure it deserved to be that close. The Eagles had a lot of dumb penalties in that game, some that extended drives for Washington, and as a result the Philly defense gave up four TDs. In the three games since, that unit has allowed a total of four TDs despite facing the Dolphins and Rams in that stretch. I expect the Philly defensive front to dominate, Sam Howell to be under pressure all game and the Washington defense to continue to struggle. Even if Jalen Hurts isn't 100%, Philly should win by at least seven.

Hurts leads the NFL with 29 rushing TDs since the start of ’21 and has a rushing TD in five of the last six games with six total in that span. He’s fifth in the league in redzone rushing attempts, and had just one against WSH in their prior meeting (from the 15). Says here they get inside the 5-yard line for scrimmage plays this time around, and we know who is getting the ball when they do.

Washington’s offensive line is an abject failure against bad pass rushes and this could seriously be an 8 sack game for the Eagles. I love the way they play on the road and Washington has been particularly brutal at home, allowing 77 points in their last two losses there. Philly bogged down on third down last in the last meeting – leading to 4 FGs - but it won’t happen again against a team 26th in defensive EPA. Washington is throwing the ball 69% of the time and both coordinators look lost.