The Bills are indeed injured at all three levels of their defense, but so are the Patriots. Given New England is struggling massively on offense, it's a far bigger deal for the home team. Buffalo (-1.5) is a great teaser leg this week, particularly with Detroit and Pittsburgh, but it is also the preferred side here. Limiting turnovers will be key for the Bills, which have beaten the Pats by double digits in three straight meetings. Josh Allen also thrives against the blitz, which NE employs on more than one-third of its defensive snaps. We tried to get cute and backed the Pats last week. Won't make that mistake again.

The Patriots have burned me multiple times but in this case I only need them to lose by a touchdown. Buffalo will be missing four defensive starters, including Ed Oliver, who leads the Bills in pressures. Josh Allen is playing through a shoulder injury that could limit his rushing. The Pats activated corner Jack Jones, and there is optimism about several offensive linemen being able to play. Following their last home performance, a 34-0 beatdown at the hands of New Orleans, I'm expecting the Patriots to play more like they did in their first two home games -- competitive losses to the Eagles and Dolphins.

It's all about the hot seat. These quarterbacks who are fighting to save their reputation look to show that they are willing to play tough for their team. We watched it with Derek Carr last week putting up 14 rushing yards. Our sims have him projected for 9 yards. Jones averages over 8 rushing yards on the season and 10.6 at home. He is 4-1 to the over against Buffalo. The Bill's pass rush is tied for league lead in sacks and will flush him out of the pocket multiple times.

The Patriots are notorious for packing the injury report with more players than any other team. Yet, with seemingly half the roster listed with ailments and multiple Pats missing practice this week, this bunch seems ill-suited to break out of a deep slump during which they have scored a max of 17 points since opening week. There are other reasons to cozy up to Buffalo. Coach Sean McDermott has won five of six outright against Bill Belichick, with three straight Ws by at least 10 points. The Pats are prone to turnovers, and the Bills' 13 takeaways are tied for second most. Lastly, New England's not covered as an underdog in nine games.

The Patriots have been unable to run the ball for much of the year, but they've also played several tough defenses. Last week against the Raiders proved much better for both Patriots backs, who totaled 80 yards on 17 carries. Zeke has had at least five carries in every game, and even if that's all he gets this week, he has a shot at topping this total against a Bills defense that ranks 31st in the NFL with 5.38 yards allowed per carry. I believe this game will be closer than the spread suggests, and Zeke could approach double-digit carries, which should get him well over this total.

I have not been a big fan of Stevenson this year, but I like his chances to contribute against the Bills. He's been over this total in three games including last week when he left with an injury, came back, and still had 15 touches with a touchdown. The Bills have allowed a running back to gain at least 61 total yards in all but one game this season. Last week was their first outing without starting linebacker Matt Milano and Saquon Barkley eventually knocked them over for nearly 100 total yards. Stevenson remains the Patriots primary running back, and he's been dominating 3rd down snaps, which should help him contribute as a receiver.

James Cook has had frustrating usage despite being the RB1 in a highly potent Buffalo offense. Cook has performed very well and has a 4.8 YPC average and is an ultra efficient receiver out of the backfield as evidenced by his YPRR and his 10.0 yards per catch. He's coming off a season high 52% carry share, and the Bills will be without Damien Harris this week, leaving Cook and the corpse of Latavius Murray as his only competition for touches. The Patriots are a stout run defense but Cooks has three down skill set and as long he sees 15-18 touches he should sail north of this combo line.

The Patriots are 1-5 ATS this year, but I'd say they were unlucky not to cover in two of those games, including last week against the Raiders. This line tells me they're still carrying around the stink of back-to-back blowouts in Weeks 4-5, and the market is likely worried about the injuries piling up, especially on defense. But that's a massive issue for Buffalo as well, and now Josh Allen is playing through a shoulder injury that could limit his effectiveness when throwing. Projected high winds will likely limit offense in this game as well, yet another thing working against Buffalo as large road favorites. It feels hard to back the Pats, but there's definitely value here.

Buffalo's offense hasn't looked right the past couple of weeks and Josh Allen reportedly isn't 100 percent. The Patriots still have Mac Jones right? Kinda doubt he's their guy in 2024 but that's for another day. If Buffalo doesn't score more than 24, I find it hard to see how we lose this (may push). Also likely to be a bit rainy and breezy in tropical Foxborough.

Under 41 - Buffalo's offense has struggled the past two weeks scoring a combined 34 points. QB Josh Allen clearly isn't 100% with a shoulder injury. The Patriots are averaging just 12 points per game with Mac Jones throwing for just 6 yards per pass and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Buffalo is 4-2 under and New England is 6-1 under. it will be windy on Sunday in Foxbrough.