Will update analysis shortly.

I think the hook is really important here as I expect this to be a close game played within a 3 point margin. I don't expect the Browns to be able to run the ball against a talented Titans rush defense which leaves the burden of moving the ball on Deshaun Watson and he simply hasn't shown me enough to prove that he can do that. It will be difficult for the Titans to move the ball as well, but I'd prefer to lean on the Titans historical ability to win and cover these close contests.

The Browns defense has yet to allow an opposing offense inside its 30-yard line. You can make a case it's one of the three best defenses in the league, and now they get Ryan Tannehill behind a bad O-line. Mike Vrabel is normally great to take as a dog, but I think the Browns rally here in the aftermath of losing Nick Chubb. Lay the points.

The Browns and Titans are going to mirror each other throughout the 2023 season. Week to week teams. Sometimes up, sometimes down and more than likely it will flip back and forth. I think that's what we see here Sunday. Cleveland should play much more focused and penalty free after the debacle against Pittsburgh and Tennessee might be riding a little too high after a win over the Chargers. Look for the Browns to load the box against the run and bait Tannehill (and the OC) to have to do it through the air. Tennessee could win this game, not counting them out at all, but win or lose Tannehill is very likely throwing at least one pick.

NFL coaches and personnel chiefs might consider RBs interchangeable, but there are exceptions. One is Nick Chubb, whom the Browns lost for the season last Sunday with an injury. The other is likely Hall of Fame Derrick Henry, around whom the Titans' offense revolves. The yawning difference between the teams' ground games tilts the scales toward Tennessee. A sub-40 total hints at a close game, and the hook alongside the three points makes a big difference. Coach Mike Vrabel is just above .500 straight-up as an underdog, and the Titans have dropped just two of 10 away games ATS since the dawn of last season.

Derek Carr threw for 305 yards against the Titans, then Justin Herbert threw for the exact same total in Week 2. Together Carr and Herbert completed 67.6 percent of their throws. I like Deshaun Watson, facing a staunch run defense and not having Nick Chubb to rely on, to go over his passing yards total Sunday in a nice bounceback spot.

I've come full circle on this matchup, as I initially wanted to back Mike Vrabel in his usually profitable underdog role. But after digging deeper, I'm backing the Browns and their fearsome defensive front against Tennessee's shaky O-line. Cleveland has allowed one offensive touchdown through two games, holding the Bengals and Steelers to 3.7 yards per play. The Browns own the third-best pass rush, which should force Ryan Tannehill into mistakes. No one runs the ball against the Titans and the Browns won't either. But Tennessee is terrible against the pass, giving Deshaun Watson a chance to bounce back from his Monday night debacle. Lay the field goal.

Last week was the anomaly for the Browns offense, as they gave 14 points to the Steelers. Lost in that wild Monday Night Game is that the Browns defense held a Steelers offensive attack to 12 points. Tennessee doesn't have better protection up front, nor the amount of weapons on the perimeter to challenge this Browns defense.

I went to the well with Mike Vrabel as an underdog already last week and took the Titans against the spread in Week 1 too. His record when catching points is outstanding and the Browns are coming off a brutal loss on Monday night which saw Nick Chubb get knocked out for the season and Deshaun Watson really struggle.

The Titans are coming off an upset win in overtime over the Chargers but now face a step up in opposing defenses with the Browns coming to town. Cleveland has given up one offensive TD in two games and is a blown coverage against George Pickens away from holding two straight opponents under 200 offensive yards. The Titans have an elite run defense, so this game getting to 41 is going to rest on Deshaun Watson's arm, which has not looked great since he returned to the league. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams finish below 20 points scored.

The Browns are on a short week having just lost their best player on offense, and it's a real question whether this version of Deshaun Watson is good enough to carry the team with the passing game. The Titans pass defense should give him a good chance to prove himself, but they're too good against the run to expect much from Jerome Ford. Mike Vrabel should turn this into an ugly, field-goal game and I'd be surprised if this line doesn't close at least on the 3, if not below.