Trevor Lawrence has the capability to be a running quarterback. He has a high first down rate among quarterbacks in the league, but could still take advantage of his legs more. Lawrence has gone over this number three of four times against the Colts, and averaged 17.1 rushing yards last season. The model has him projected for 19 yards. Look for him to escape the pocket this weekend.

Evan Engram had a nice season last year in Jacksonville, posting career numbers across the board. However, he only reached five receptions in seven of his 17 appearances last season. The Jaguars acquired Calvin Ridley, and the former Falcon brings with him an elite target profile and has averaged a whopping 10 targets over the last 20 games he appeared in. Engram is unlikely to replicate his target share from last season competing with the aforementioned Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Travis Etienne.

Rookie head coach? Rookie QB? Going up a team that is trending in the right direction, with a MVP caliber QB? I don't really care that the Colts have failed to win a week 1 game in the previous 8 seasons, but they are going to have to wait until 2024 to break that streak. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars should be able to take care of business and cover the 4.5 points in Indy.

Will update analysis shortly.

According to PFF, the Colts' offensive line is ranked No. 10, whereas the Jaguars are at No. 26. Betting on underdogs with a better-performing offensive line has proven to be a lucrative strategy. Furthermore, the Colts are well-acquainted with the Jaguars' offensive system. Jacksonville has yet to learn what to expect from Anthony Richardson and his team. In Week 1, division underdogs have a high probability of covering. A solid strategy is to play on teams in their first game that missed the playoffs against teams that made it last season. I like the Colts and the points!

Anthony Richardson isn't facing a huge defensive test in his debut, but the Colts probably aren't going to score many points without Jonathan Taylor on the field as his absence gives them potentially the worst skill-position group in the league. But the Jaguars' O-line is a problem for Trevor Lawrence, and that plays into the aggressive nature of Indy DC Gus Bradley. This game feels like it could finish in the 30s, and I like grabbing the hook at FanDuel while it's available.

QB Trevor Lawrence was a can't-miss upon entering the league. He has positioned the Jaguars on the doorstep of annual contention for a Super Bowl berth. Meanwhile, the Colts are trying a hit-or-miss with rookie Anthony Richardson, who started just one season in college. Besides the QB, Indy dumped its head coach after last season and barely dabbled in the free agent market. The Jags snared WR Calvin Ridley, suspended a year ago, to pair with Lawrence. A tough intro looms for the new guy with the horseshoe on his helmet.

I've watched the Colts a fair amount this preseason and this is a really bad team. Maybe Anthony Richardson becomes Cam Newton, but A-Rich can't, you know, throw well. In your granddaddy's NFL (think Frank Gifford) that's fine. It's a little important today. And it now seems a matter of time that Jonathan Taylor is traded. I don't love taking a road team in Week 1, but Indy has been the worst Week 1 team in the league for 15 years. This is still the lowest ML on the board so let's just grab it now. JAX could be awesome offensively with a very motivated Calvin Ridley in the fold. If you bought Jags down to -2.5 at DraftKings, it would cost -155.