The Patriots deserve credit for their greatly improved play as of late, but there's a reason the Bills are favored. Buffalo's run defense is one of the best in the league and capable of at least slowing down New England enough in a game where rushing will be the path to victory. Given the inclement weather in Buffalo, the quarterbacking edge leans even more favorably toward Josh Allen, who has years of experience playing in such conditions -- not only in Western New York but also Wyoming – and the mobility to keep the Pats off balance. Mac Jones simply hasn’t faced weather like this before, and it’s just not something one steps into. With a couple extra days of prep, a homefield and the QB matchup advantage, I’m leaning with the Bills. This may hit -2.5 before kickoff, so wait as long as you can.

I'll bite. While this game will feature heavy wind, precipitation and the like, we can get to 41 here right? Both the Patriots and Bills boast terrific defenses...but their offenses aren't bad either. New England has certainly been the more consistent and balanced team over the past month, so we need good Buffalo to show up tonight, but I'll ride the sweat. 21-20 gets us home. This play may not be for everyone, but I'll take the chance tonight.

I'm betting against a team that has won and covered six straight games. The Patriots have been on an amazing high and enter with lots of confidence in QB Mac Jones, who no longer is playing like a rookie. But Mother Nature and a multidimensional QB like Josh Allen, who runs often, are my two main reasons for siding with the Bills at home. Winds from 30-to-40 mph are expected in 28-degree temperatures. Not much passing will take place. Take Buffalo to cover.

Buffalo losing All-Pro cornerback Tre'Davious White for the season is definitely going to hurt, but I still like the Bills at home here -- the weather could be very ugly and it's going to be quite windy. The return of defensive tackle Star Lotulelei from COVID protocols will be huge against the Pats' running game. I'm also pretty sure that warm-weather New England QB Mac Jones has not played previously in the type of weather he's about to see. Buffalo's Josh Allen obviously has. That Buffalo had a few extra days of rest/preparation after playing on Thursday in Week 12 doesn't hurt, either.

Most Patriots and Bills players are accustomed to working in cold weather, but almost none thrive in high winds. Gusts are expected to accompany freezing temperatures, which should limit passing and make field goals few and far between. One Patriot who might encounter difficulty from the conditions is Mac Jones. The rookie QB hails from Florida and played at Alabama. Bill Belichick's playbook likely will be filled with run plays. Jones’ counterpart, Josh Allen, figures to deploy his footwork on keepers.

Here's why I'm taking the Bills: They need this game more. They know they still have to play at New England on Dec. 26, so if they have any hopes of winning the AFC East -- and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs -- they need to win this game. Buffalo's extra two days of rest doesn't hurt either. I also like that this line has dropped from -3. I'm on the Bills.

Guess I'll take this total now -- wish I had when it was 46. No defense is playing better than New England's over the past six weeks and it ranks No. 1 in scoring. Buffalo's is No. 2 and has allowed single-digit or zero points four times. Yes, Tre'Davious White is a massive loss. Still going Under as the weather is going to be a major factor with rain/snow during the day Monday and perhaps flurries at night with winds at 20-30 mph. This number of 43.5 likely drops so at least we are in now for a potential 23-20 final score.

The Bills had extra rest following their Thanksgiving beatdown of New Orleans, but that win came at a huge cost: All-Pro corner TreDavious White tore his ACL and is out for the year. Now they face a Patriots team that's won six straight in dominant fashion. New England will have success running the ball -- Jonathan Taylor erupted for 185 rushing yards and five TDs two weeks ago in Buffalo -- and White's absence will make life easier for Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite Mac Jones. Grab the field goal.

The Patriots defense is a big reason why they're the hottest team in football, and the Bills are a Super Bowl caliber team at their peak. But Buffalo has little consistency week to week, and Bill Belichick has plenty of tape from this year on how defenses can slow down Josh Allen. The Bills defense has been largely excellent this year, but the Colts showed two weeks ago they can be run on, while Tre'Davious White is a massive loss that Josh McDaniels can exploit in the secondary. Right now the Patriots are clearly the better team to me, so I love getting a full field goal in this game.