Julio Jones is out, but the Titans will have all their key pass rushers. New Orleans will be missing running back Alvin Kamara and left tackle Terron Armstead. It would be hard to overstate their value. Tennessee is 7-2 against the toughest schedule in the league. While everyone is expecting a letdown after Tennessee's incredible run, I'll back Ryan Tannehill and the Titans to win their fourth straight home game.

The Titans have pulled off one of the more improbable stretches in recent years. They’ve won four straight games all as underdogs against formidable opponents. But Sunday is a difficult spot for the Titans against a Saints team that is always well prepared under Sean Payton. Furthermore, the Saints have won eight straight road games on Sundays against AFC opponents since 2016. Play the Saints.

Sharp money came in on the Saints, which is why the spread is so low. They knew Trevor Siemian was starting, but I don’t think they counted on Alvin Kamara sitting. The Titans have won and covered five straight, the last four as underdogs, and the last game came without Derrick Henry. Siemian went 3-9 in his last 12 games as a starter on the road for Denver. I bet the Titans because they’re the better team with the better roll going.

You'd think that with Tennessee coming off impressive wins over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams that this line would be higher, right? Well, despite what the scoreboard said, the Titans offense didn't look very good in its first game post-Derrick Henry, gaining less than 200 yards but benefiting from a free 14 points. Tennessee's defense has been a revelation thanks to the pressure its front is able to generate, and I'll admit I'm worried that the Saints won't have Terron Armstead here. But it's pretty notable that the line did not move after Armstead and Alvin Kamara were ruled out. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the Titans, but this line seems closer to tilting toward 2.5 (I'm playing at -120) than 3.5.

Have to believe this line climbs as kickoff approaches given the Saints being without Alvin Kamara for the game. Not only that, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Terron Armstead are sidelined, too. The Titans are not only 7-2 ATS, they are on a 5-0 ATS streak and hosting. And Tennessee has already proven it can win without Derrick Henry, handing me a big loss last week. New Orleans' defense has flashed, but its offense is simply not going to be able to keep up over four quarters. We missed the best line but are still getting solid value here with the Titans while we wait for full confirmation that Ryan Tannehill is going to play. Given that he's just dealing with an "illness", I expect him to play, and I'll take the value here.

It is no secret that Tennessee can score, with or apparently without RB Derrick Henry, who remains on the mend. With Alvin Kamara (knee) declared out, the Saints are missing their top RB, plus main QB Jameis Winston and WR Michael Thomas. The offense ranks 28th overall and 31st in passing, with Kamara and Winston in action for most of the season. The Titans have covered in five straight and are a shiny 7-2 ATS this year.

This has dipped under 3 temporarily but may get back to 3 for good anytime soon considering Alvin Kamara was ruled out. So the Saints don't have their top RB, WR (Michael Thomas), OL (Terron Armstead) or QB (Jameis Winston) and the Titans are only -2.5? Note that Ryan Tannehill didn't practice today (see news feed) with an illness but the Titans say it's not COVID and he'll play. I'll have to risk that's true.

I feel like both of these teams are due for a flat spot and this could be it. New Orleans is banged up offensively and the Titans have been playing out of their minds the last five weeks. Couple that with two teams who right now are actually led by their defenses, I don't know if we see 6 touchdowns plus a field goal...not to mention Tennessee is 75% to the Under at home and the Saints are 75% to the Under on the road.