Parsing these teams is difficult in the marquee matchup of Sunday's entire slate. When I look at the absences of Darrell Henderson for the Rams and Antonio Brown for the Bucs, it feels as if Los Angeles is better prepared to handle the adjustment. Mostly because LA probably realizes they're not about to run on the NFL's top run defense anyway. Brown has been an extra explosive element that has helped Tom Brady dominate even further, and without him, the Tampa Bay offense has to get downgraded at least a peg. Consider this is a career game for Matt Stafford, a home game for the Rams and good value getting a point after the public shifted the line, and I'm willing to throw some on LA.

In a matchup of the NFC’s best teams, the home side is receiving points. Enough said. Further, the Bucs’ secondary has been sufficiently unsound that they have reached out to aging free agent Richard Sherman. On offense, scratch WR Antonio Brown (COVID-19), which removes one of Tom Brady’s choice targets. September is Rams coach Sean McVay’s month to remember; he is 10-5-1 ATS.

Throughout Matthew Stafford’s career he endured the struggle of being a part of disappointing Detroit Lions teams. The worst loss of his career came last Thanksgiving as Tampa Bay defeated Detroit 47-7. Expect Stafford and his new teammates to rise to the occasion to showcase their new emergence as an NFC threat to the Buccaneers. Take the Rams as the home underdog.

The Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home underdog. They started out as the favorite here but have been bet to the dog. The Buccaneers have a 10-game winning streak. It feels crazy that I like the Rams in this spot, but Tom Brady doesn’t like to get hit and that Rams D-line is coming. Pressure Brady, and L.A. wins the game. Yes, I’m picking against a 10-game win streak. I’m on the Rams.

The Buccaneers defense is as good as it was last year. And the offense could be even better; Tom Brady is coming off a five-touchdown game. Tampa Bay has scored at least 30 points in nine straight games, which is the second longest streak in NFL history. I don't think the Rams can keep up with that scoring, even playing at home. I think the Buccaneers cover this line easily.

Tampa Bay is 2-0 at home this season despite getting outgained in both games. The Buccaneers have won 10 straight dating back to last season, scoring 30-plus points in an NFL-record nine straight games. The Rams have a lot of confidence going into this game. They defeated the Bucs 27-24 at Tampa with Jared Goff (376 passing yards) under center last season. Tom Brady was 26-of-48 for 216 yards. Matthew Stafford has a QBR of 78.1 through two games, while Tom Brady has a 65 QBR. Take the Rams in this upset spot.

I love backing good teams that are visiting the Los Angeles area as the home field advantage simply isn't significant. I make the Bucs -2.8 points better in this "road" matchup against the Rams. The Rams will struggle to run the football in this matchup and that is going to put a little too much pressure on Stafford. I'm also skeptical of the Rams defense after watching the Colts and Bears have success moving the football. Back Tom Brady here.