It's nice that Cam Newton had a good game against the Jets. News flash: The Ravens are not the Jets. Baltimore is one of the best teams in NFL despite a couple close calls recently. Lamar Jackson stepped up last week against a tough Colts defense, and J.K. Dobbins looks to be on the verge of winning the starting running back job. Jakobi Meyers doesn't scare me, and neither do New England's running backs. The Ravens will be able to focus on containing Cam and winning this by a touchdown.

A lot has changed since the Ravens blew out the Patriots on Sunday Night Football in 2019. On Monday, the Patriots needed to come back from a 10-point deficit just to defeat the winless Jets. A positive is that Cam Newton has found a weapon in WR Jakobi Meyers. Expect Bill Belichick to add more disguises and schemes as Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson continues his downgraded play. Grab the Patriots as home underdogs.

First of all, there is no home-field advantage here. The Patriots are a well-below average football team. Their offense ranks 24th in DVOA and their defense 31st. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents 28.4-17.8 - a 10.6-point difference versus an average NFL team. I have the Patriots rated four points below an average team. They are on a short week after beating the league-worst New York Jets on Monday night. Baltimore will dominate on both offense and defense.

Baltimore's offense has lacked the dynamism for it to be granting a full touchdown -- except when the opponent is punchless New England. It has been five games since the Patriots scored through the air. A stingy defense is hardly ideal for QB Cam Newton to shed a prolonged slump. Likely rain could reduce throwing, which would favor the Ravens. No team has rushed for more yards and only two own a yards-per-carry north of Baltimore’s 5.1.

I don't care that the Patriots beat the Jets -- Baltimore's defense is another story entirely. The Ravens have gotten a takeaway in 21 straight games. They totally shut down Indy in the second half last week. If Joe Flacco can almost beat the Patriots, Lamar Jackson certainly will. Take Baltimore to cover.

Baltimore looked good last week against Indianapolis, and New England looked mediocre on Monday against the winless Jets, and those results have pushed this line higher than it should be. Patriots quarterback Cam Newton has been solid the last two weeks and, on Monday, didn't have a turnover for the first time since Week 1. I think his good play continues, and he keeps New England in the game on Sunday. My model says the Patriots cover well over 50 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number.

Lamar Jackson gained some confidence by throwing the ball well in last week's 24-10 win at Indianapolis after coming off a tough loss to Pittsburgh. I think he takes that next step forward against the Patriots' defense. He guided Baltimore to a 37-20 victory against a much better New England defense around this time last season. Patriots QB Cam Newton has thrown five interceptions and no touchdown passes over his last four games. The Ravens to win big here.

On a short week, the Patriots have to get ready to face a Baltimore team that completely shut down the Colts' offense. The Ravens are undefeated on the road. I think they keep it up, hold New England to 17 or fewer, and cover.