This game will be all about running the football, and the Browns clearly have an edge in that department -- not just with its stable of running backs but Baker Mayfield's mobility. I do not believe Mayfield will be that affected by the loss of Odell Beckham, Jr., and I like Jarvis Landry to get more involved in the short-passing game. This is a meager spread for a 5-2 home team. Yes, Las Vegas has exceeded expectations already this season, but it can't decide on a backup running back let alone a commitment to rushing effectively. I usually stay away from Browns games, but this one is an easy call with the windy conditions.

This total has cratered due to the weather, but I'm not sure it's moved enough. Both of these teams will be looking to run the ball a ton in these conditions, and that will shorten the game and limit possessions. We also have a better chance of missed field goals with the swirling winds, and that's an angle we shouldn't overlook with a number over 50. The one worry I have is that both these defenses have given up a ton of points this year, as both rank in the bottom four of points allowed. But let's give the conditions an edge and peg this to stay in the 40s.

The Raiders' rushing attack is floundering, which isn't a good omen heading into windy Cleveland. Las Vegas is averaging 4.0 yards per carry, compared to the Browns' 5.1 ypc. With a solid running game to lean on, Baker Mayfield should build off his brilliant second half last week. Back the Browns to improve to 6-2, and cover.

Is it time to admit Baker Mayfield is better without the injured Odell Beckham Jr.? Since OBJ joined the Browns, Mayfield has a passer rating of 79.6 with Beckham on the field and 116.6 without him. Beckham's 53.5 catch percent this year was second-lowest in the NFL among all wideouts targeted at least 40 times. Meanwhile, the Raiders are coming off a very tumultuous week with some COVID issues and then a home blowout loss to Tampa. It's a 10 a.m. Pacific time start Sunday as well. The Browns are 3-0 ATS outside the AFC North this year, while Vegas is 2-5 ATS in its past seven on the East Coast.

It's expected to be very windy in Cleveland, and that's going to give the advantage to whichever team is better at running the ball and stopping the run. The Browns have a big edge on both sides of the ball in yards per rush, so this sets up perfectly for them even with Odell Beckham unavailable. The Raiders defense is last in the NFL in points allowed per drive, so even in normal conditions I'd like the Browns to have success offensively. Cleveland's two losses came on the road against two of the best teams in the league in the Steelers and Ravens; there's a chance that they're a fair bit better than a solid but not great Raiders team.

Vegas’ six games have generated between 53 and 72 points. Cleveland has surpassed this total in five of seven outings, with three of them producing 87, 71 and 65. The public is putting too much stock in the absence of WR Odell Beckham Jr. (knee). After OBJ departed last Sunday, QB Baker Mayfield rallied the Browns with 20 consecutive completions. Browns DE Myles Garrett (ankle), the league leader in sacks while tied for first in forced fumbles, has yet to practice this week and could be limited.

The Browns are missing players on defense and look what the Bengals did to them. Derek Carr and Jon Gruden will put up a lot of points here. You can throw out last week against Tampa Bay, because the Raiders were simply overmatched. That won't be the case in Cleveland. They're dangerous getting points against this defense.

Chilly winds are forecast to be coming from the west at 20-to-30 miles per hour with a 60 percent chance of rain. So much for betting the Over, but I still like the Browns laying less than a field goal. They have the third-ranked running game (157.0 yards per game) and can utilize it more now that Odell Beckham Jr. is out for the season. Baker Mayfield tries hard to make him happy, but it gets him more trouble than it creates good. His first pass last week was intercepted trying to get Beckham involved early; it’s the play Beckham got hurt on. A more diverse and unpredictable Browns team gets the cover.