Will the Texans be extra motivated after Bill O'Brien was fired? It's unclear, but there were already reasons to believe they could handle a Jaguars team whose Week 1 win over the Colts is looking like an aberration. The Jags lost to the mighty Dolphins and Bengals the last two weeks by a combined 26 points, and now they'll be without Josh Allen and possibly a few other starters. A coach's firing hasn't historically helped teams in their next game, but the Texans are healthier and more talented, and they may even have a little extra fire. Lay the points.

Seems odd to back a relatively big favorite that's 0-4 and just fired its coach, but here we are. I believe Bill O'Brien's dismissal will give this team a lift after he clashed with players prior to last week. I expect Deshaun Watson to absolutely destroy this ugly Jaguars defense that will be without top edge rusher Josh Allen, which will ease the burden of the Texans O-line. While the Texans defense has been bad in its own right, giving Gardner Minshew the opportunity at a backdoor cover here, I'm still going to play the angle that the Texans were rated far more highly than the Jaguars when the season started and had to endure a brutal schedule in the opening weeks.

I wrote a story on the SportsLine news feed this week about how interim coaches are just 11-25 overall and 13-23 ATS in their first game since 2000. Check it out. That said, Houston's Bill O'Brien was literally reviled by the end of his tenure, with he and JJ Watt having a heated exchange that was part of the impetus for O'Brien's firing. I don't always believe in the "interim kick" but I do here. Love that this spread got under Houston -6 just in case of a 30-24 final score or the like. The Texans aren't that bad. They have just played a very tough schedule.

The Texans defense has failed to create a single turnover this season. QB Deshaun Watson has been sacked a league-high 16 times. And Watson is struggling without a go-to WR after the team traded DeAndre Hopkins for a third-string running back. The Texans' starting 0-4 (straight up and ATS) has a lot more to do with not being very skilled than Bill O’Brien not being very good. The Jaguars have gone 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games at Houston. Jaguars to cover.

I think firing Bill O'Brien could open up the Houston offense and the team in general, as it was clear he lost the locker room by his failed Earl Thomas addition. But the Texans defense has been awful, and I expect Gardner Minshew to come in and score points. But the Jaguars defense is also terrible, so why won't this game go over? These pair of defenses rank near the bottom of the league in points per drive and DVOA while allowing about 30 points per game. Against two solid offenses, it seems to me we should expect about 30 from each.

Houston fired coach Bill O'Brien after an 0-4 start. The Texans were close to knocking off the Vikings last weekend and, to me, are not that far off. Jacksonville's passing offense has been very inconsistent to start the season. And it's that one-dimensional approach that will have the Texans feasting on RB James Robinson, and making Gardner Minshew try to beat them throwing the football.

Some might suspect that since the Texans fired Bill O'Brien, things will magically improve. I am not one of them. Sure, we might see a dead coach bounce this week as the Texans finally got the BOB weight off their back, but it's not like the roster is any different. While not spectacular, Bill O'Brien's gameday coaching is not what put the Texans in this mess. It was the roster he put together (or deconstructed). Nothing I have seen from the Texans in 2020 makes me comfortable with the idea of taking them as nearly a touchdown favorite in this spot. They might get their first win of the season on Sunday, but it won't be a comfortable one.

It's tough to back the Texans after their no-show last week, but they should be energized by the coaching change, plus the chance to face Jacksonville's depleted defense. Look for Deshaun Watson to break out as Houston finally gets its first win and cover.

The Jaguars had three key defensive players get hurt last week. Gardner Minshew throws for a lot of yards but he's up and down. I think Houston's defense will play well. And I bet the Texans had a party when Bill O'Brien got fired. Deshaun Watson will have a big game against that Jags defense and he's due for a big win. Lay the points.