Not much more than a homer pick as I want a financial reason to care because watching my Bulls in the Play-In Tournament yet again certainly doesn't do it solo. But they are pretty darn entertaining this season led by Josh Giddey, seem to like playing together and have been one of the East's better teams since the AS break/trade deadline. Miami has been one of the worst over that span with the whole Jimmy Butler saga essentially torpedoing the season. No. 10 seeds like Miami are 2-8 all-time in Play-In games.

FanDuel. We bet this same Davion Mitchell line just last week against the Bulls, and he rewarded us with a 17-point, 8-assist performance. In general, Mitchell cleared this line in 17 of the final 22 games for the Heat, sans the last two against tanking teams. He’s proven to be an important piece off the bench, with his rotation running him 34-37 minutes. Even if Nikola Jovic suits up (he’s missed 27 straight games), Mitchell will be needed on the floor to defend Coby White. And this is a fantastic spot against a Bulls defense that allowed the second most points and the most assists to opposing point guards this season.

The Heat have gone over the total in their last five games, and in this game, I'm reminded of when they went to New Orleans and won 153-104 on Friday night. They shot 56% from the field and 44% from 3-point range, hitting 20 of 45, 60 rebounds, and 36 assists. Just an awesome display of offense. They go fast, forcing the tempo. They're going to put some points on the board against the Bulls, and maybe even win..

The Chicago Bulls were expected to fade from the possibility of a play-in when they traded away Zach Lavine. Instead their roster has sprung to the occasion and been a pleasant surprise. Miami is a team they defeated just last Wednsday by eight points, and also defeated them mid-March by five points. They’re also a team that has had consistent second half issues. Take the Bulls to defeat the Heat for the fourth time this season.

Nikola Vucevic averaged 10.1 rebounds per game this season. It marked his seventh straight season in which he averaged at least 10.0 rebounds. At home this season, he averaged 10.3 rebounds. The Heat have had problems controlling the glass, allowing the 12th-most rebounds per game in the league. Vucevic played in two of the three games that the Bulls faced the Heat this season and he had exactly 11 rebounds in both games. In an important game in which Vucevic should play a lot, I like him to record at least 10 rebounds.

The Bulls inserted Matas Buzelis into their starting five in the beginning of February. Over 31 games in that role, he averaged 13.0 points. He played even more as the season came to a close, averaging 29 minutes over his last 12 games. That helped him score at least 12 points in eight of those 12 games. He has faced the Heat three times this season and he scored at least 13 points in each of those games. While Buzelis only shot 43.5% from the field on the road this season, he shot 47.2% at home. Take this over.

In their current 6-1 run, the Bulls beat a lot of non-playoff teams...plus the Heat. Last Wednesday's crucial 119-111 win at United Center vs. Miami effectively gave the Bulls the home edge for the play-in. Note being at home proved a plus for both the Magic and Warriors in last night's action. That meeting a week ago in Chicago was mostly run by the Bulls' Josh Giddey, whose impressive triple-double (28 points, 16 boards, 11 assists) saw him boss the game, with help from two other 20+ scorers (Kevin Huerter with 22, Nicola Vucevic with 20) as the Bulls hit nearly 52% from the floor. Play Bulls on ML.

I know the playoffs, or play-in, is different than the regular season, but it's worth noting the three games between these teams produced 230, 223 and 257 points. They are over in 5 of their last 7 games, averaging 229/G in that span. The Bulls played at the fastest pace in NBA in final 15 games and No 2 in pace at home on the season. They went Over the final 15 games, Bulls games averaged 239 points and Heat 223. The Bulls were 7-2-1 over in last 10 game vs playoff teams and Miami was over in 6 of their 7 final games of the season. Both teams were in top 8 in NBA offensive rating during that stretch. I'm expecting a hectic pace.

Since trading Jimmy Butler to the Warriors on February 6, 2025, the Miami Heat went 12-17 in the remainder of the regular season, including 4-7 on the road. The Miami Heat struggled offensively after the trade, ranking 23rd in offensive rating and lacking a clear focal point. The Bulls swept the Heat 3-0 during the regular season, including two wins at home. Josh Giddey and Coby White have outperformed the Miami guards, while the Bulls' Nikola Vucevic has played better than Bam Adebayo. The Bulls' youth and speed will out-match the older Heat, as the Bulls rank 9th in average age at 25.5 years, while Miami is 27th at 27.5 years. My model has the Bulls favored by 4.1, with Josh Giddey good to go.