We're back for Game 2 and going right back to Nikola Jokic over 1.5 threes, this time priced at +159. Yes we missed by one in Game One but it's been up and down throughout the playoffs. Jokic hit this in 3 of 4 in the Lakers series, 3 of 6 against Phoenix and 3 of 5 vs. Minnesota. I'm just going to trust the process and keep it going. Miami should look to force points early tonight, even though they have been worth their weight in gold with postseason comebacks...this isn't the team to mess around with. Denver still hasn't even lost a home game in the 2023 Playoffs. Let it rip Jokic, we only need two!

Miami’s perimeter defenders are largely small, slow or both. (Think Duncan Robinson, Max Stroos and Kyle Lowery). Accordingly, they don’t switch off screens well and big 3-point shooters get good looks. This is a perfect spot for Porter to go Over 15.5 points. He had 14 in a Game 1 blowout that featured a disinterested Denver scoring just 20 points in the 4th quarter and Porter shooting just 2/11 from 3. Unless the Nuggets get another blowout where Porter is under 20% from 3-point land, he should easily eclipse this number.

Game 1 was the embodiment of the Denver Nuggets this season: They start fast at home. I love that the public will be skewed by a final score that wasn’t nearly as close as the actual game. Denver scored 59 points in the first half and Miami showed you they will have a first half altitude drought. Why worry about the back door cover? Take Denver in the first half.

Denver had a clear run away game one victory over the Miami Heat. The decisive victory and the Nuggets unblemished playoff record at home will be tough for the Heat. Yet, Miami did have open shots in game one but looked tired and out of rhythm from their seven game series against the Celtics. They will regroup and at the very least make it a competitive game to cover the spread. Take Miami.

Michael Porter has accepted his role this postseason. While he can be an elite shooter, he’s been putting in work on the boards. Porter has recorded a double-double in four of his last five games. The forward is seeing the second-most rebound chances for Denver behind Nikola Jokic. The Heat do not have an answer for Porter’s presence on the glass. While he may not collect 13 boards like he did in Game 1, he is more than capable of putting up 10. If you like his Over 8.5 rebounds, shoot for one more and take the value with the double-double.

The Nuggets had their way with Miami in Game 1 and actually didn't shoot the ball very well. Miami finished a seven game series versus Boston, traveled directly to Denver and looked every bit of a tired team. I'm not sure the extra day will make a difference because of the altitude. Denver has been dominating at home with a 43-7 straight up record and 31-19 ATS record. Nikola Jokic is the best player on the planet with two amazing All-Stars in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Aaron Gordon's defense on Jimmy Butler is also a major game changer. I'm playing the Nuggets-3 in the first quarter, -4.5 for the first half and -8.5 for the game.

Both offenses are capable of more than they showed in Game 1. Jimmy Butler was passive, and the Heat missed a slew of uncontested 3-pointers. The Nuggets, meanwhile, took their foot off the gas with a comfortable lead. Our simulations have this game pegged for 219 points. Look for Miami to focus on attacking the rim, drawing fouls and increasing the pace behind Butler's aggressiveness.

Nikola Jokic posted yet another triple-double in Game 1. He finished with 10 rebounds and 14 assists, marking the eighth time over the last 12 games that he had at least 24 combined rebounds and assists. During the regular season, Jokic averaged 13.1 rebounds and 11.1 assists over 34 minutes per game at home. With him averaging 39 minutes per game in the playoffs, I like his chances of hitting this over.

Although his shot wasn’t falling from behind the arc in Game 1, Michael Porter Jr. hauled in 13 rebounds. That marked the fourth time over the last five games that he had at least 10 rebounds. Over 16 games in the playoffs, he has hauled in at least nine rebounds nine times. The Heat don’t have much size outside of Bam Adebayo, so I can’t resist the over here at plus odds.

The Nuggets won Game 1 by 11 points, despite the Heat outscoring them by 10 points in the fourth quarter. The Heat shot just 13-for-39 from behind the arc, with most of their makes coming in the fourth quarter. The crazy part is, the Nuggets dominated the game despite Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. shooting a combined 4-for-18 from deep. During the regular season, Murray and Porter Jr. shot 39.8 percent and 41.4 percent on three-pointers, respectively. With the expectation that both improve in Game 2, look for the Nuggets to win by double digits again.

Michael Porter Jr. should thrive in this matchup thanks to his height and ability to shoot from the perimeter. MPJ finished game 1 with 14 points while shooting just 2-11 from three. Adjusting his numbers using ShotQuality data we have an expected score of 21 points in game 1. He played 43 minutes in game 1 and is likely to see the same workload going forward. Miami is used to switching a lot of screens which leaves MPJ in favorable situations often, allowing him to simply shoot over most defenders. Miami showed their hand a bit at the end of game 1 on Jokic and I think those adjustments only lead to more open looks for MPJ. I make this number 18.3

I've talked about Aaron Gordon throughout the postseason mainly highlighting his defensive abilities which were on full display in game 1, as he did an excellent job guarding Jimmy Butler. However it was Gordon's offense prowess that helped Denver take a 17 point into half time. Denver was able to frequently switch smaller defenders on to Gordon who was able to bully them down low. It resulted in Gordon dominating Miami to the tune of 11 first quarter points and 3 offensive rebounds. Denver went away from this approach in the second half and while the game was never exactly close, Miami did cut the lead. Miami lacks the size to defend Gordon near the basket and I believe Denver will continue to exploit this.

Jamal Murray has been one of the best performers in playoffs and is a key reason why the Nuggets look poised to capture their first title. Murray has increased his scoring and efficiency in the postseason and has been completely unstoppable at times. He is an elite closer and crunch time shot maker, however Miami is excellent defensively and are particularly adept at defending opposing guards. Murray got off to a blistering start in game 1 scoring 18 of his 26 points in the first half. Miami keyed in on Murray in the second half and while the game was out of hand, they were successful. Miami knows they have to make life difficult for Murray in order to have a chance in game 2.

The Nuggets are 9-0 at home in the playoffs, winning by an average of 11.9 points. The Heat deserve to be here but this is a bad matchup for them. Denver's size and length advantage proved decisive in Game 1. Aaron Gordon got to the rim at will, Jimmy Butler was held to 13 points thanks to an array of Nuggets defenders, and Miami shot just two free throws all game. The Heat likely will shoot better after getting more time to adjust to the altitude, but Denver can play a lot better offensively, too. Lay it again.