After averaging twenty six minutes per game in the regular season, Vincent’s minutes are up in the postseason. In fact, he is coming off a forty minute outing in game two. From a points stand point he has scored less than ten points in five of the past six playoff games. A valuable role player for the Heat but look for his presence to remain quiet in the points market. Take his under

The Miami Heat have full control of the Eastern Conference Finals series after winning games one and two at Boston. Yet, don’t expect the Celtics to not counter. They were down in their last series to the 76ers and have the pedigree of experience to overcome. They’re also a team that’s style of play does not wane on the road. On the steep spread discount grab Boston in game three.

Are you surprised the Celtics are favored on the road? I’m not. They were 10-point favorites in Game 2, were up by double digits in the second half and gave it away. Jayson Tatum has to be better down the stretch in this must-win spot. I’ll lay the points with Boston.

Martin seems to be adding minutes that are being subtracted from Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson. Martin has finished 3-for-7 from deep in each of the first two games of the series -- and those were on the road. His three-point home percentage is nearly three points higher.

I had the Celtics rated five points better than Miami entering the series, but two nice road wins by the Heat have cut the gap to just three points. However, this still leaves the Celtics as the better team with revenge. The home revenge factor in the playoffs over the past 20 years is worth 3.5 points. I'm not going to give any home court for Miami, with Boston being the better team. Derrick White should get inserted back into the Celtics' starting lineup and play close to 30 minutes, a move that should've been made in Game 1.

It pains me to fade Miami, especially at home where they have been excellent throughout the postseason but I just have a hard time wrapping my head around the Cetlics going down 0-3. The Celtics are 4-2 on the road in these playoffs and are certainly battle tested. Last season they went 3-1 in Miami on the way to winning a 7 game series against the Heat. With all due respect to the Heat, I think Boston still has the superior talent and figure out a way to get a win done today.

Kyle Lowry has been a big part of Miami's postseason success. The 6x All-Star has come off the bench in every postseason game has has appeared in this season. Lowry is averaging a combined 17 PRA in the playoffs, after averaging 20.3 PRA in the regular season. However Lowry was banged up in the Heats opening round series and has looked much healthier and been more effective over the previous eight games. Lowry is coming off a dud in game 2 but he typically bounces back after having a down game and considering we are getting a hefty discount on this co line, I expect a much better effort in game 3.

The Heat have won and covered the last four meetings with the Celtics and four of the last five have stayed Under. But this is it for the Celtics. It’s win on the road or make early vacation reservations because NBA teams don’t come back down 0-3. The Celtics can’t get beat on the boards again and they have to take better care of the ball. The urgency should bring out the best in Jayson Tatum as well. I like the Celtics to play at their best tonight and get the win, money-line.

They say role players perform worse on the road, and Malcolm Brogdon seems determined not to be considered a role player. In the playoffs he's scoring 16.3 points per game on the road, and has gone over this 14.5 total in five of six. He also finished with at least 15 points in 26 of 41 road games this season, including 25 of the last 34.

Al Horford only averaged 5.8 rebounds per game on the road during the regular season, but the playoffs have been a lot different. After grabbing only four in Boston's first road game against Atlanta, Horford has averaged 9.6 in five road games since, going over the 6.5 mark in each.

Nothing overly complicated here. Kyle Lowry scores more points at home than he does on the road. Lowry has played five home games with the Heat this postseason, and he's gone over 9.5 points in four of them, averaging 12.2 points per game. On the whole, he's averaged 11.5 points per game at home this season and has gone over in 20 of 32 games.

This is not a good matchup for Kevin Love. The Celtics have been attacking him on defense, trying to get him involved in pick-and-rolls. That has contributed to him logging a total of 31 minutes in the two games. It’s a much better matchup for Caleb Martin, who is a versatile defender. That has helped him log at least 30 minutes in both games. He took advantage of his expanded role, scoring 15 and 25 points, respectively. I expect him to play a lot and remain productive in Game 3.

Max Strus only attempted six shots in Game 1, which ended his streak of six straight games with at least 10 shot attempts. In those six games, he scored at least 14 points each time. Even with his limited workload in Game 2, he still scored 11 points. Role players tend to perform better at home in the playoffs, and Strus can hit three-pointers in bunches when he is locked in, so I like the over here.

The Celtics are in trouble. Not only are they down 0-2, but now the Eastern Conference Finals shifts to Miami. They were in a position to win both of the first two games, but ultimately couldn’t come through late in either. They have played well on the road in the playoffs, going 4-2 away from Boston. However, I can’t bet against Jimmy Butler. Instead, I’ll play the total and take the over. When the Celtics get hot, they can make three-pointers in bunches. Even though both teams couldn’t match the scoring outburst that we saw in Game 1, they still combined for 216 points in Game 2.

The Over is 2-0 against the closing number in this series, and I'm expecting another Over on Sunday night, with 221 points projected. Both teams are generating a slew of wide-open 3-pointers (the Celtics missed most of theirs in Game 2). In my simulations, the Over in Game 3 is cashing 61 percent of the time.