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Everyone seems to think D'Angelo Russell will play a lot fewer minutes in Game 2 because he was such a defensive nightmare in the opener. I mean, the Lakers have to keep at least one guard out there at all times and if Russell is in the pseudo-dog house, that should mean heavy minutes again for Reaves (and Dennis Schroder). He has topped this combo number in four straight and in points alone in three and is making himself millions as an upcoming restricted free agent.
This bet is fun, isn't it? For those looking for risk/reward once again let's jump back in. Jokic has hit this prop in 58.3% of all games this postseason including in four of his last six. Expect Los Angeles to push the tempo at times and do anything and everything not to head back home down 0-2, which however that works out for them look for Nikola Jokic to find a few more opportunities to fire away from behind the arc. Jamal Murray will definitely get more attention which hopefully leaves Jokic open just a few more times than normal. To those who ride it again best of luck and let's drain from deep!
In game one the Denver Nuggets dominated from the middle of the first quarter until the five minute mark of the fourth quarter. While the Lakers did make a run I expect game two to be a tale of two halves. Denver’s home dominance will not be over rode as their playoff streak improves to 8-0. Take Denver
Brown had a big game one with sixteen points but most of it came in the first quarter. A pattern for Brown in game two’s this postseason has been fouls. In the Nuggets series against both Phoenix and Minnesota he had four fouls and scored below ten points. Tail his under in game two.
Aaron Gordon shot 0-3 from deep in game 1 but I expect him to keep receiving plenty of good looks. Gordon can typically be found in what's called the "dunker spot" on the court, which is an area along the baseline, just outside the lane. However with the Lakers opting to deploy a larger lineup and Anthony Davis roaming, this should provide clean looks for Gordon in the corners. Gordon shot 34.7% from three in the regular season which is roughly league average, however he shot 41% on threes in the corners. The Lakers will live with him taking these shots and I expect him to knock down at least one tonight. I am also sprinkling on his alt line to make 2 threes at +250.
Jokic has hit this number (42.5) in 7 of his previous 9. Nearly 9 of 9, putting up 42 points/rebounds in the two games that he did not surpass 42.5. He put up 55 combined points/rebounds against the Lakers in Game 1, so I expect him to be able to hit this lower number tonight in Game 2.
The Lakers got out rebounded in game 1 47-30. Not good, however Darvin Ham adjusted in the second half by going away from his three guard lineup and giving Rui Hachimura big minutes. This really swung things in the Lakers favor and it is fair to expect more size from LA tonight. Hachimura was tasked with guarding NIkola Jokic and this allowed Anthony Davis to roam more and protect the paint. Davis as a result was much more active and effective on the glass in the second half and pulled down 8 rebounds. AD is averaging 13.8 rebounds in the postseason so we're getting a nice discount as well. Like always, make sure to shop around on this prop.
This is far more gut than numbers, but after Nikola Jokic tore the Lakers apart in the first game, I expect Los Angeles to change things up tonight. Whether that means Anthony Davis taking a more active role defending him or something else, it's safe to assume the Lakers are going to make the rest of the Nuggets beat them. And that's fine, because Nikola Jokic has no problem giving up shots and helping in other ways.
Davis had a monster performance in the first game, and there's been a clear trend of him following up those performances with lesser efforts in the next game. He's only gone over this total in four of the Lakers' 13 playoff games this season, and he's averaging only 26 PAR in the next game after the first three. On the whole, he's averaging 39.1 PAR in 13 playoff games.
Anthony Davis is a defensive juggernaut. He played 42 minutes in Game 1, finishing with three steals and two blocks. During the playoffs, he has averaged 1.5 steals and 3.2 blocks over 37 minutes per game. He has recorded at least four combined blocks and steals in 10 of 13 playoff games, with two of the three that he missed being blowouts that saw him play reduced minutes. In what should be a competitive Game 2, look for Davis to once again rack up defensive stats.
During the regular season, Michael Porter Jr. averaged 5.5 rebounds over 29 minutes per game. With him averaging 33 minutes during the playoffs, he has averaged 7.8 rebounds. He grabbed 10 rebounds in Game 1, giving him at least eight rebounds in four of the last five games. With increased playing time likely coming his way again, I’m on the over.
D'Angelo Russell struggled in game 1 finishing with just 8 points, 3 assists, 0 rebounds on 4-11 shooting from the field and a team worst -25 plus-minus. Lakers coach Darvin Ham adjusted by benching Russell for the entire fourth quarter replacing him with Rui Hachimura. This move allowed Anthony Davis to play off Nikola Jokic defensively and he was free to roam and help at the rim. The Lakers ultimately came up short but they did outscore Denver by 8 in the 4th quarter. There are also whispers out of Lakers camp that Hachimura may replace Russell in the starting lineup, but even if that doesn't come to fruition I expect Russell to lose minutes tonight and see his usage/role shrink.
The Lakers paid a big price for opening Game 1 with a three-guard lineup; Denver grabbed an offensive rebound on nine of its first 11 misses and led 24-14 before Darvin Ham substituted. D'Angelo Russell finished minus-25 in a game LA lost by six. Now the Lakers know which lineups will work, emphasizing Rui Hachimura's size and scoring. Over the last three seasons, teams coming off outright losses in the conference finals are 21-7-1 ATS and 20-9 SU, per analyst Steve Makinen. Look for a much lower-scoring game that is very tight.