The Suns are in a must-win situation returning home after two tough losses in Denver. The Nuggets have a strong home court because of the elevation, however they are below average on the road, with a losing ATS record and they have been outscored by 2.9 points per game. Denver allows nearly seven more points per game on the road than at home. The Suns were 24-20 ATS at home in 2022-23.

Caldwell Pope has been a big catalyst to begin the series against Phoenix for the Nuggets. In both games one and two he cleared his points prop with double figures. On the road expect Denver’s shot selection to be different in a hostile environment. Phoenix will also have different looks defensively minus Chris Paul. Take the under on Caldwell Pope.

The Phoenix Suns have their backs against the wall after two disastrous road performances in Denver. They’ve had three full days off to regroup and accept a challenge. That challenge is to take care of home court with two games in the next forty eight hours. A new look lineup will benefit the Suns. Take Phoenix.

The Suns somewhat mortgaged their future by trading Mikal Bridges for Kevin Durant simply for games like tonight, must wins. The Suns are desperate, down 0-2 to Denver and without their future Hall of Fame point guard in Chris Paul. Durant scored 24 points on 10 of 27 shooting in Game 2, and while I expect the volume to be similar, I expect the accuracy to be above 50%. In that case, both Durant and Devin Booker should score 30+ tonight as the Suns get back in the series.

It’s Devin Booker time. The Suns are down 0-2 after losing both games in Denver. Booker played well in both, scoring 27 and 35 points, respectively. Look at the box score from Game 2. Booker attempted 29 shots while scoring 35 points. Kevin Durant took 27 shots. The next closest players were Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton with 10 shot attempts each. Paul is out for this game, putting even more pressure on Booker to perform. With the home crowd behind him, Booker could blow past this number.

The Suns will be in desperation mode down 0-2 in the series. Returning to Phoenix is a big plus for them, since they went 28-13 there during the regular season. Also, the Nuggets were just 19-22 on the road. Still, the loss of Chris Paul (groin) is huge. The Suns already didn’t have much depth with Paul healthy, so they are going to be really thin now. The Suns also have no answer for Nikola Jokic, who has dominated this series. Give me the points, and I even wouldn’t be surprised if the Nuggets won outright.

Listen, Kevin Durant is one of the greatest players in NBA history, but he's never going to crack the list of All-Time Greats occupied by Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, LeBron James and Steph Curry because he hasn't proven he can win on his own. He's painfully aware of this, and it clearly matters to him. Tonight, with the Suns down 2-0 in the series, and Chris Paul out, Durant will look to keep Phoenix's hopes alive. I don't know that Phoenix will win. I don't think they'll win the series (I never did), but I do think we're going to see KD doing everything he can tonight. Expect a big performance.

The power rating on the Suns factors in the incredible collection of top-end talent, but I think there is an edge in fading them based on their experience playing together. These pressure-packed moments in the playoffs sometimes require familiarity, a doing-not-thinking kind of muscle memory that I think Phoenix lacks in this moment. Factor in the Chris Paul injury and the overall lack of depth for the Suns and I think an excellent Denver team can sense an opportunity to end this series quickly.

Cameron Payne has been productive throughout his career on a per minute basis and has usually filled in nicely whenever Chris Paul whenever has been forced to miss time. CP3 is unlikely to return in this series and I think the Suns best shot at winning a game is back in front of their home crowd for game 3. Payne will be in the starting lineup and I expect him to play upwards of 30 minutes. Payne has played a minimum of 30+ minutes 11x this season and he has eclipsed this line 8x, while averaging 28.1 PRA. In the three games he failed to go over he finished with 17, 17, and 19 PRA, so this number feels closer to his floor.

The Suns are 30-14 at home, with a +5 point differential. Denver is 20-23 on the road, with a -3 point differential. Chris Paul is out and that's reflected in the line. Cameron Payne has proven his ability to step up in clutch moments. During the Suns' 2021 playoff run, he filled in admirably for an injured Paul, notching a career-high 29 points in a Game 2 victory over the LA Clippers during the Western Conference Finals. Take the motivated home team.

No Chris Paul for the Suns, which isn't ideal, but I'm not sure the team is THAT worse off with Cam Payne in the starting lineup, although obviously it weakens an already thin bench. Paul is still a good player but not close to what he used to be at age 38 (in a couple of days). The Model downgraded the Suns by 1.5 points, which is essentially what the books have done here. It's desperation time for the Suns so I expect Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to both play at least 40 minutes and pull this out at home. Denver was three games under .500 on the road in the regular season and split two at Minnesota in Round 1.