Simulation Picks
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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
Donovan Mitchell dished out eight and 13 assists in the games in Cleveland, and I like him to get at least six assists in Game 3. His usage is enormous. He also averaged 7.5 assists in four regular-season games against New York. Mitchell took 30 shots in Game 1, only 11 in Game 2. Shooting less worked as the Cavs evened the series. Look for Mitchell to draw a ton of attention while continuing to set up his teammates.
The Knicks have the worst shooting percentage of the playoffs so far at 39% and they’ve also been the worst from 3 at 25%. But those number should improve on their home floor. The Knicks had won and covered four straight against the Cavaliers until the Game 2 loss. Look for New York to respond with a Game 3 cover.
SportslineAI is predicting 27.3 points for Jalen Brunson's. His first playoff game with the Knicks was limited due to his foul trouble, playing only 29 minutes. His second game was worse scoring just 20 points and shooting 5 for 17 from the floor. Even with the Cav's large lead Brunson still played 36 minutes. With what should be a close game I wouldn't be surprised if Brunson has 40+ minutes tonight giving him plenty of opportunity to go over this line. Hear the full breakdown on Early Edge in 5 at 4pm ET.
Randle missed the final two weeks of the regular season due to a sprained ankle but has looked like his usual self as the Knicks split the first two games in Cleveland. He surpassed this prop total in 11 of his final (full - when not leaving due to injury) 16 regular season games and has taken 20 shots in each of New York's first two playoff games. In January, the Knicks forward posted a 36-13-4 game against Cleveland at home, and while I won't call for an exact repeat, I think he'll come closer to 40 points + assists + rebounds than 30.
The Knicks stole a game on the road, putting them in an excellent spot in this series. The Cavaliers were 31-10 at home this season, but just 20-21 on the road. With The Garden rocking, expect role players like Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley to provide better performances for the Knicks than they have in this series. The Cavaliers will have to win a road game if they are going to advance, and they could at some point in this series, but I don’t think that will come in Game 3.
Mitchell is so much more than just a great scorer. He is also an excellent passer, having averaged at least 4.2 assists in each of the last five seasons. He has played a ton in this series, logging 44 and 39 minutes, respectively. That helped him dish out at least eight assists in both games. He faced the Knicks four times during the regular season, racking up a total of 30 assists. With how often he has the ball in his hands and how many minutes he should play, the over is the way to go here.
The Knicks aren't going to be held to just 90 points at the Garden. That alone will go a long way to helping this Over hit. Cleveland was a sub-.500 road team this year, and while that doesn't the Cavs won't score in bunches, the lack of proficiency away from home should help unlock the New York offense and get us to the Over. It's hitting in 66% of my model's simulations.
Knicks on Friday night, MSG is the place to be. The atmosphere is going to be electric and I think it's going to set up for one of the most significant home court advantages we'll see in the entire first round. Anything under a bucket is green light go, especially with the urgency of a pivotal Game 3.
This is Quentin Grimes' first playoff series, and the second-year guard out of Houston hasn't shown up offensively -- yet. He has scored nine points in 49 minutes. Coming back home to MSG, look for Grimes to more closely resemble the player who averaged 21.9 points over the final nine regular-season games while shooting 47.8 percent from deep. The Cavs will continue to trap Jalen Brunson, which should translate to opportunities for Grimes.
Cleveland was a game under .500 on the road this season and lost both at the World's Most Famous Arena. Donovan Mitchell, who should be Public Enemy No. 1 at MSG simply because he didn't end up there in a trade, shot about 4% worse from deep away from home. Darius Garland's road splits were also quite a bit worse than home. New York struggled at home for a while but got much better as the year went on and finished 23-18 at MSG -- should be quite raucous there on a Friday night. Two days off since Game 2 can only help banged-up Josh Hart, who didn't have near the impact in Game 2 as he did when healthy in Game 1. The Cavs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight following an ATS win.
Cleveland is 20-21 on the road this season. They now travel to the Garden, where the fans will be ready for this one after the physicality in game two towards the Knicks. The Cavaliers shot the ball very well in that game, 42.4 percent from beyond the arc. They also played New York’s bully ball style right back at them, out-rebounding them by nine totals boards. The Knicks shot very poorly in game two, 36.7 percent from the floor, so expect some progression there being back at home. New York should get more production from its bench as well, especially from Immanuel Quickley.