Duke lost both their top two quarterbacks to the transfer portal and now has to rely on a third-stringer, Henry Belin IV, who threw all of one pass this year. Ole Miss has an elite defense that surrendered less than 14 points per contest and hit the under line in 10 of 12 games this season. I have a hard time seeing Duke score more than twice, assuming Ole Miss plays with a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the College Football Playoff (which I think they will). On offense, the Rebels should find some success with veteran quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Rebels should romp with relative ease. Ole Miss 28, Duke 10

Not a great bowl season for the SEC, though few are expecting Ole Miss to lose outright as a 17-point favorite over Duke at the Gator Bowl. It also hasn't been a bowl season for unders though we expect this Gator Bowl might change that pattern. SEC onlookers know that Lane Kiffin's Rebels did an effective job keeping the clock moving, and with a big-time defense that wrecked Georgia, among other teams, helped Ole Miss to an eye-opening 10-1 under mark across its last 11 games. With third-string QB Henry Belin IV being Duke's remaining option at QB in Jacksonville, hardly expect the Blue Devils to do significant damage as this 51.5 looks a real mountain to clear in Jacksonville. Play Duke-Ole Miss Under

Gunner Stockton looked good in the second half of the SEC Championship, taking over for Carson Beck. However, he’s still the backup quarterback, limited experience and did have one interception in the end against Texas. The Fighting Irish are a run heavy team while Georgia has struggled to consistently establish the run this season. Maybe it’s the square play, but with a backup quarterback taking over the reins in the biggest game of the season, it’s tough to see where the offense comes from with an edge favoring the Fighting Irish defense.

In a way, I'm surprised this game is being played only a day after such a senseless tragedy in New Orleans. Hopefully the teams can focus after the worst of distractions on Wednesday. Thus far, I'm 7-0 on straight up picks in this year's College Football Playoff though my against the spread / total picks leave a bit to be desired. I like Notre Dame here as I simply don't trust Georgia with a backup quarterback. The Fighting Irish have been a consistent top-3 team since Week 3 of the CFB season and I think they keep it rolling on Thursday. Notre Dame 24, Georgia 21.

Georgia has the pedigree when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and Kirby Smart's experience -- plus the game's location -- should help plenty in this matchup. However, I had zero belief in this team with Carson Beck and have even less with him not playing. Notre Dame rebounded from a rough start to play dominant, unwavering football down the stretch, and Riley Leonard should give the Fighting Irish a huge edge at QB. Plus, Jereiyah Love can match whatever UGA runs at ND and the Irish red zone defense is stout.

Arguably the Irish’s most impressive victory came in Week 1 on the road against a sturdy Texas A&M club. So, they have proved they can win against a quality opponent in a difficult environment. The injury loss of Georgia starting QB Carson Beck will make the Georgia offense a bit more one-dimensional, which should also favor Notre Dame. Even so, we saw the short-handed Bulldogs find a way to outlast a more talented Texas club in the SEC title game, and we’re predicting they do so again before a Superdome crowd that will likely grant them a default home-turf advantage on a neutral site.

The Dogs won a huge game with their back-up, and he brought them new energy. So the Carson Beck injury doesn't bother me. We hopped the Dogs as early dogs on ML, and they know this venue well and this time of year. Experience and coaching matters so much at this point, and there is a reason so few coaches have won the natty. I give the edge to Kirby Smart and his staff to maximize all this time to prepare for a one-game season.

A great bowl season came crashing back to earth yesterday when I backed two dogs and neither covered. Silly me. I assume there is a reason that Gunner Stockton has been UGA's backup QB the past two years as he starts today with Carson Beck out injured. The little I know about Stockton is that he can run some but isn't near the passer Beck is. The Irish have been college football's best team since that stunning Week 2 loss to NIU. I tried to consider whether the postponement for some reason benefited either team, and don't really see one. It does seem to me, though, that teams who played in Round 1 have an advantage so far as they have rolled in the quarters.

It’s clear that Ohio State heard all the noise after losing to their archrival, Wolverines, in their final game of the season then going out and dominating Tennessee. It’s very difficult to beat a team twice as the Buckeyes nearly won in Eugene earlier in the season. This line may be indicative of Ohio State playing with momentum and a chip on their shoulder after all that transpired at the end of the season.

The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country statistically, allowing only 11.4 points per game and it was on display in the blowout victory over Tennessee on 12/21. While these teams combined for 63 total points in their first matchup, I think both defenses will make adjustments and this game stays in the 20s for each side. I lean Ohio State to win outright but don't have enough confidence to make it an official play. Ohio State 27, Oregon 23.

The 2024-25 national champion may come out of this with Oregon looking to continue its undefeated season and Ohio State seeking payback from what should've been (but wasn't) the only team to beat it. Momentum is with the Buckeyes, which dominated Tennessee, but we have seen them ebb and flow all season. Jim Knowles is a defensive mastermind, but Dan Lanning’s unit is underrated – plus Oregon’s been preparing for weeks, and it’s more than just a flashy offense. The Ducks have the better quarterback (Will Howard 5 TD, 4 INT in last three games) and the better kicking game in a tight battle. Expected this to hit +3, the key number I want and will buy at -120. Another option: play the live line.

It's telling that the Buckeyes are favored on the road in this rematch despite losing the first matchup 32-31 in Eugene. They were felled by eight penalties and two big turnovers, and the clock ran out on a potential game-winning drive. We anticipate Ohio State building on perhaps its most complete effort of the season in a first-round drubbing of Tennessee and advancing to the CFP semifinals.

The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!

Ohio State has played one road game all season that involved real travel - and they lost to these very same Ducks. Schedule set up great for them and they did their best work at home. But Ryan Day comes up small in these spots and the pressure mounts and his team has had to play more recently. And did I mention this game wasn't being played in Columbus? Dan Lanning will pull out all the stops. Coaching matters a ton when you reach this point in the season (which helps explain why one of these programs tends to crash out right around this time).

Told myself I was just going to enjoy this game and not bet it ... told myself I was just going to enjoy this game and not bet it. Then Oregon got to +3. So yeah. The Ducks definitely got hosed by the draw, but this makes no sense. Oh how I hate ... Ohio State.