2 Expert Picks
Can Ohio State cap off a dream postseason by covering the two-score spread in the National Championship Game?
Are we due to see a higher scoring game between two of the top defenses in college football?
Past Picks
I believe this is the real National Championship Game as either of these teams should be favored over Penn State or Notre Dame on January 20th. I lean Texas, in part due to the de facto home field advantage in Dallas as well as the fact that the Texas athletes are arguably better than what Ohio State has seen all season. No offense to Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan who the Buckeyes have played but this is another level of collective talent. I would be very surprised if this game was decided by more than one score. Ohio State 24, Texas 20.
With two elite defenses, I think this total is much too high. In my opinion, the oddsmakers are overreacting to the Buckeyes' offensive explosion against Tennessee and Oregon, while at the same time penalizing Texas for its fourth quarter meltdown against Arizona State. Ohio State has allowed 12.1 points per game this season, best in the country, while Texas has given up 14.5 PPG (fourth). There will be a few big plays, but not nearly as many as we saw in the two teams' quarterfinal games.
After being on Ohio State all week, Texas started looking favorable when it appeared the line was shifting to 7. Alas, it did not. This call is ultimately about Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes defensive coordinator is arguably the best in the business as evidenced by his crew demoralizing Oregon and completely erasing its run game. The Longhorns have been explosive but inconsistent offensively, and I worry about Quinn Ewers facing a regular pass rush knocking him off his spot. This line is indeed inflated given overreaction to OSU's quarterfinal effort (should probably be -4 or -4.5), but 5.5 is in the dead zone, and I like Ohio State to win by a touchdown behind its explosive playmakers and swarming defense.
Ohio State's offense is equally as explosive, if not more so than Texas, but what gives them an edge is that they are peaking at the right time and they are not allowing teams to hang around. Defensively they are shutting down both the run and the pass, putting the ball in their explosive offense's hands.
This one comes through gritted teeth, considering the Buckeyes were our pre-playoff choice to win the CFP and have looked the part of a team of destiny following a pair of blowout victories. Even so, out of purely value-driven principle, we have to side with the underdog. This is because the live look-ahead line in this matchup was Ohio State -1.5, so we’re snagging nearly an extra touchdown of value. The short-memory public will undoubtedly pile relentlessly on the Buckeyes, which gives us a chance to grab the coveted +7, if available. Texas can equalize Ohio State in terms of pure talent and has the default home-turf edge at AT&T Stadium. Both clubs boast top-5 scoring defensive units, enhancing the value of the points.
Ohio State finds themselves as a considerable favorite tonight against Texas. This is all about timing as if this matchup was played a month ago the spread likely would of been in the 2.5 point range. The way Texas nearly lost to Arizona State is concerning, and the Buckeyes confidence matching their high level talent. The opponent continues to not matter as Ohio State rolls once again. Lay it tonight.
Starting to think the SEC just wasn't that good this year. And Sark doesn't do much for me and I think the Horns are playing the wrong QB. Ryan Day slayed some dragons in the Rose Bowl, getting the best of the Ducks in a big way. Texas secondary is going to have its hands full. Are this year's Buckeyes last year's Wolverines?
I'm not going to play the national title game betting-wise so I can enjoy it either way -- I'm a Midwest Catholic, so I can't possibly have an unbiased opinion on Notre Dame against either one of these two hated teams and my late grandpa was an ND grad so no way -- but I think the only advantage UT has here is a semi-close location to campus. I tend to think Texas ATS covers (at least on this number) but also that OSU wins outright. But I got nothing right last night so ... see you in August for the rematch.
Texas has a lot to worry about this week with Ohio State coming up because they watched Ohio State on film for the last two games and were impressed and in awe. The blitzkrieg they put on No. 1 Oregon with two 40-plus yard bombs right away by Will Howard was impressive. Oregon couldn’t come back. In normal years, they lose to Michigan, and they're done. But this year their season was elevated to the playoffs and I think they will win it all despite their coach Ryan Day who I lost all respect for in the Michigan aftermath. The No. 1 defense ranking is a real thing. Texas is lucky to get past Arizona State. Ohio State covers.
I believe in Ohio State’s defense, especially in their ability to limit the TX offense in this game. Likewise I think Ohio State will be limited in their explosive plays. That means we’ll have a hard time going over so I will go under this total.
What we’ve learned through this 12 team playoff (and entire bowl season) is that the SEC is down this year. Why are we not taking advantage of this again? This price is much shorter here than at any other book.
The money and action (in Nevada, at least) seems to be lining up behind the Buckeyes, but we've never been afraid to buck the masses. The key tonight could be the 1st Q; if OSU jumps out quickly (and that's an understatement after the last two games) as it did vs. Tennessee and Oregon, the Longhorns will be in trouble. Remember, however, Texas has been a quick-starter, too; staying close or ahead 3-0 or 7-3 early would be akin to weathering the early rounds vs. a big puncher in a boxing match. But only in the first Georgia meeting this season did Texas find itself in a serious early hole. Does the Longhorn defense have enough athletes to not get overrun? Play Texas (Cotton Bowl)
It's easy to get carried away by these fireworks displays lately from Ohio State, but for large swaths of this season, the Buckeyes were a decidedly under team, including one 6-1 stretch in that direction at midseason. The Longhorns have also played a couple of higher-scoring playoff games, yet were 7-1-1 under prior to the Clemson contest. Note only two Longhorns games got beyond 52 points in the regular season, Sept. 14 vs. UTSA and Nov. 9 in a distorted game vs. Florida. It seems the Texas defense has enough athleticism to somewhat mitigate the Jeremiah Smith factor and not get overrun. Meanwhile, note the Buckeyes allowed beyond 21 points only in the 32-31 loss at Oregon on October 12. Play Ohio State-Texas Under