Aaron Jones enjoys facing his former team and had a big game in the first meeting. Sunday, I look for him to be especially effective as a receiver. That’s partly due to the Packers’ improved pass rush as well as their ability to stop the run. We got good CLV on Jones’ catches (going Over 2.5). I wouldn’t go higher than 22.5 on this prop.

There was some pause here with Christian Watson being listed as inactive given his field-stretching ability opens a ton underneath for Jordan Love and the Packers, but this is nevertheless the right spot to pick Green Bay over Minnesota. The Pack are 0-4 against the best teams they faced this season, but they have been rolling on both sides of the ball recently. Love has cut down on his turnovers, and the defense has locked down overall despite the continued absence of Jaire Alexander. The Vikings have been tremendous, but they haven’t faced a team of quality since late October. Minnesota would have lost the first meeting if not for all of Love’s questionable throws (and two missed field goals).

I'm backing the road team in this spot plus the short number. Green Bay has flourished under Coach Lafleur in revenge spots going 25-13 ATS but that's only part of the picture. I have real concerns about this Vikings defense and the SOS they've played since the start of November. Not a single offense on that list other than the Falcons ranks inside the top 10 in total offense and that was against a 50% Kirk Cousins (at best). Arizona came in here and moved the ball at will as well but saw their day doomed with a 1 of 6 red zone execution rate. For me this is a game with two teams trending opposite directions and I'll back the road dog.

Sam Darnold is projected to have 260+ passing yards and 21 completions and I think at least 2 of those completions will result in a touchdown. The Packers rush defense has been particularly stout lately and I think most of the Vikings success will be through the air. In what's projected to be a high scoring affair in perfect conditions, I'll take the guy who has hit this prop in 3 of his last 4 games.

Jayden Reed caught seven of eight targets for 139 yards in the first meeting with Minnesota. Christian Watson (knee) is questionable, but he did not practice all week. His absence would open up more targets for Reed, who's coming off a 76-yard performance vs. the Saints. Look for Reed, who has the advantage over Vikings slot corner Byron Murphy, to be heavily involved Sunday.

There are a couple of reasons that I like Jayden Reed to score on Sunday for the Packers. First, Christian Watson did not practice this week and is listed as questionable. If he's ruled out, that condenses the Packers' receiver room and target tree. Reed does very well against zone coverage, which the Vikings run the 6th most in the NFL. We saw this in Week 4, as Reed had 139 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. I love this price for him to score on Sunday.

This is the Packers time of year. Jordan Love has now gone more than a month without throwing a pick after leading the league for part of the year. Packers have the better OL, and pass pro could be an issue for Vikings. Packers have better run game and they nearly overcame a hat trick of picks by Love in the first meeting to pull off a crazy comeback. We started to ride the Packers as a dog this time last year and it worked out well. Vikings due for a loss. Love has moved the ball well vs Brian Flores defense. Pack can win this in a low scoring or high scoring game. Sprung a bunch of road upsets Dec/Jan last year, too.

Jacobs caught 4 of 6 targets in the first meeting and is often the best option against the blitz, and Brian Flores loves to blitz. Opponents have completed 22 passes to RBs vs the Vikings in the last 5 games (on just 25 targets - 88%). Jacobs has 4 receptions in 3 of his last 4 games and 4 of the last 6. Jordan Love won't hesitate to toss it to him in space.

After a slow start vs Brian Flores defense in their first meeting, Love got heated up plenty. This game could end up being just as high-scoring as the last one, and Love won't flinch in the redzone. He had a 4 TD day and a 3 TD day vs the Vikings in the last two meetings and Flores's blitz packages won't rattle him. They'll take their deep shots too and can score with explosive plays outside the redzone.

Opposing running backs have caught 31 passes vs. Green Bay in the past four weeks. Aaron Jones caught four of five targets in the first meeting with his former team, and he's coming off a five-target game in Seattle. Look for Jones to make at least three catches in this huge divisional showdown.

The Packers could have Jaire Alexander back this week, but is that enough reason to make them road favorites against a 13-2 Vikings team? I don't buy it. Minnesota hasn't had the toughest of schedules but the Packers haven't had to face many tough opponents of late either, and I believe too much is being made of their blowout win Monday against Saints backups considering the lookahead line for this game was Minnesota -2. Throw in the Minnesota's tough home-field advantage, I don't understand why the Packers are rated this much higher than the Vikings. I have the line at Vikings -1.5.

This will be the Vikings’ 11th straight game after having their BYE in week six, which should offset Green Bay’s one less day of rest. These teams have split their season series in the last three seasons. Minnesota defeated Green Bay 31-29 as 2.5-point road dogs against a “nicked” Packers squad. Green Bay outgained Minnesota 465-379. The Packers have better net yards per play on both sides of the ball and a better sack differential (+1.8 vs. -0.2). I like the road team in this spot.