Nico Iamaleava is running a great show at QB for Tennessee, perhaps the best team in the nation. They're perfect at 3-0 and also against the spread and all three of their games have gone over and we're going to see that today against Oklahoma who had trouble with Houston. I see at least a two-touchdown win by Tennessee. Tennessee is the No. 2 offensive team in the nation with 639 yards per game and they're also No. 3 rushing at 336 per game. Tennessee to cover.

Enough has already been said about Josh Heupel and how this will be personal for him. Throw that out, and I still like Tennessee by 10+. The Sooners have some dogs on defense, but they haven't faced an offense like the one Tennessee will trot out on Saturday. The Vols look like a CFP team to me and I expect them to make a statement on Saturday night.

The last time Oklahoma was a home underdog was 2016. The Sooners haven’t been a home underdog of seven points, or more, since 1997. Tennessee is 2-3 ATS in their last five as a road favorite. The Volunteers have the best offense in the country in terms of scoring, averaging 61 per game. Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive as it has in year’s past, but their defense has improved, and the Volunteers haven’t been close to being tested yet. This game is currently the most bet game of the weekend with the public heavily on Tennessee, so we’ll take the contrarian route.

The Oklahoma Sooners have played a more demanding schedule (No. 29 vs. No. 45) and will be getting key players back from injury. Josh Heupel's offense hasn't traveled well. In 2022, they averaged 20 points per game less on the road than at home; last year, they averaged nine points less. The Volunteers are massively over-rated in this spot. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava is set to make his first career road start after three comfortable home victories, including last week's 71-0 win against Kent State. I made this spread at 4.5, so we are getting great value.

While the focus will be on the explosive Vols offense, and justifiably so, the attention should be on their defensive line and how they can make things difficult for any offense. Look for them to have Sooner QB Jackson Arnold frustrated from start to finish, giving Tennessee the added possessions necessary to help cover this spread.

Tennessee, under former Oklahoma national championship QB Josh Heupel, has one of the top offenses in college football. Oklahoma, to me, hasn't shown much this season, struggling against the likes of Houston and Tulane. But the stat that influences things for me is: Vols are 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in last 12 vs. ranked opponents. Sorry Sooner fans. Tennessee 37, Oklahoma 21.

Tennessee has looked great so far, but OU getting 7.5 at home? In its mega-hyped SEC opener? At night? It's the first true road game for Vols freshman starting QB Nico Iamaleava, which certainly matters, and he goes against one of the best defensive-minded head coaches in the sport in OU's Brent Venables. In the summer this was Oklahoma -5. Last week, it was UT -2.5. Our model has the Vols winning by a point. The game will also mark the return of former OU quarterback and offensive coordinator Josh Heupel to Norman.

Oklahoma's defense is much improved over last season, but the Sooners' problem is on the other side of the ball. The offensive line is one of the worst in the last two decades in Norman. Oklahoma ranks 112th in the country in sacks allowed and passing offense and 67th in rushing offense. That does not bode well this week against Tennessee. The Sooners will need to score to keep up with the Volunteers, who lead the nation in scoring offense (63.7 per game). But that starts up front, and Oklahoma has not shown it is average there yet. Tennessee rolls.