Question: When this season have the Longhorns played all three phases for all four quarters against an opponent with half a heartbeat? Answer: We haven't. If Texas is able to do that, it would have a legitimate shot against an Ohio State team that's rolling right now. But I can't bet on the Longhorns playing at a level we haven't seen yet. I think the Buckeyes defensive front ends up being the difference. Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the country at stopping the outside zone run (Texas' bread-and-butter) and has pass rushers to affect quarterback Quinn Ewers. (The Buckeyes got eight sacks in the Rose Bowl while blitzing only three times.) Ohio State gets a late score to cover, 33-24.

This is a terrible matchup for the Sun Devils. Unlike Clemson, which had a passing game that could move the ball on Texas, Arizona State relies on running it. But the Longhorns have a nasty and sure-tackling defense that allows just 104.2 rushing yards per game (10th in the country). The 13 teams the Sun Devils have faced this season have an average total defense rank of 76.6; Texas is No. 3. And the Longhorns won't have to keep an eye on No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson, who's out for the season. Georgia has showed that the way to beat Texas is to get pressure on quarterback Quinn Ewers, but the Sun Devils rank 100th in the country in sacks per game (1.62). Longhorns roll.

Will the last person left in Pullman, Wash., please turn off the lights? The Cougars have endured the most brutal month of December of any program. Coach Jake Dickert left nine days before the bowl to take the helm at Wake Forest. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterbacks coach John Kuceyeski were hired away by Oklahoma. Most importantly, the Cougars lost quarterback John Mateer, who passed for 3,139 yards and 29 touchdowns against seven interceptions and also rushed for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, Orange quarterback Kyle McCord leads the country in passing yards per game (360.5) and faces a Cougars defense that ranks 116th in the country against the pass (255.3 yards per game). I'd play this up to +18.

No team has been hit harder by the transfer portal than the Sooners (6-6), who have 26 players in the portal. That includes QB Jackson Arnold, six receivers and top pass catcher Bauer Sharp, a tight end. In addition, Oklahoma will also be without first team all-SEC linebacker Danny Stutsman (opt out), playmaking safety Billy Bowman Jr. (opt out) and leading rusher Jovantae Barnes (injury). That means that the Sooners will not have their leading passer, rusher, pass catcher or tackler. Meanwhile the Midshipmen (9-3) are closing out a strong season, which was capped by blowing out Army, 31-13. QB Blake Horvath looks healthy again after battling a late-season injury. He leads an offense that averages 249.3 rushing yards per game (sixth in the country).

How will the Tigers score in this game? Clemson has faced two SEC defenses this season, Georgia and South Carolina, and had its two worst offensive performances of the year, scoring three and 14 points, respectively. Meanwhile the Longhorns have arguably the best defense in the country, allowing just 12.5 points per game (second best in the nation). In addition, the Tigers figure to struggle running the ball with Phil Mafah playing with a shoulder injury and backup Jay Haynes out after tearing an ACL. Meanwhile Texas, with quarterback Quinn Ewers in a funk, has scored 20 points or fewer in two of its past three games. Under is the top play. Two units.

The Mustangs benefitted greatly this season from playing the dregs of the ACC. Just two of their regular season games came against teams that were better than .500 in ACC play. SMU also lost to the two best teams it faced this season (BYU and Clemson). Meanwhile, Penn State went toe-to-toe with two of the best teams in the country, Oregon and Ohio State. Abdul Carter, Tyler Warren and 106,000-plus frenzied fans will be too much for a Mustangs team that hasn't seen anything like they'll see Saturday.

Barry Odom, the architect of the Rebels' turnaround, is off to Purdue, and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion is reportedly taking a head job as well. But UNLV strangely is the team in this game undergoing less upheaval. Bears quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who will be coveted by Power Four teams, entered the transfer portal just a week before the bowl game. Backup Chandler Rogers is battling an injury, meaning Cal could be down to its third string quarterback. Whoever is under center will also be taking plays from a new playcaller since offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch was fired at the end of the season. I'll take UNLV.

I realize I'm not getting the best number, but with players opting out of bowl games daily, there's good reason to wait. The Mountaineers are undergoing a coaching transition, and new/old coach Rich Rodriguez won't be coaching the bowl game. Meanwhile Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan, who has 102 career TD passes and needs just three more to break the AAC record of 104, will be closing out his college career mere miles away from where he grew up in Denton, Texas. He leads an offense that ranks 19th in the country in scoring (35.2 points per game) and has a promising matchup against a West Virginia defense that ranks 124th against the pass (268.9 yards per game) and gives up 31.1 points per game (106th).

Under is the best play in this game. Texas has the No. 2 scoring defense in the country (11.7 points per game). More importantly, the Longhorns' offense has been more effective running the ball recently, which has shortened games, limited possessions and kept games Under. (Their last three games have stayed Under.) Meanwhile the Georgia defense gave the Texas offense fits last time, limiting the Longhorns to 15 points. I expect a 23-20 or 20-17 kind of game.

I've been saying this for years: This long-awaited rematch will have the most hostile road environment in the history of college football. There will be 110,000-plus fans, most of whom have been waiting to get revenge since the Longhorns won the last game of the series, in 2011. Texas has played its best on the road the last two seasons, but this will be a different animal. Also, as Georgia showed, the way to beat the Longhorns is to get pressure on QB Quinn Ewers, and Texas A&M has the NFL talent on the defensive line to do that. I considered taking the 5.5 points, but I expect this to be a coin-flip game, and I'll take +185 on a coin flip anytime. Two units.

The Gamecocks are arguably playing the best ball in the SEC, having won five straight games by an average of 23.4 points per game. That includes two wins over ranked teams. South Carolina has been playing great defense all season, giving up just 18.2 points per game (14th in the country). Meanwhile, Clemson has not beaten a ranked team this season, and the Tigers' best win is a four-point victory against Pitt. Give me the Gamecocks on the money line.

I realize I'm not getting the best number on this line, but I don't think it's going to matter. Oklahoma State (3-8) has lost eight in a row and has nothing to play for. The Cowboys also rank 117th in the country in scoring defense (34.1 points per game). That bodes well for a Colorado team that could still reach the Big 12 title game with a win. I expect Coach Prime will want to send both Heisman Trophy favorite Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders out with big numbers in what may be their last college game. So I think we'll see the Buffaloes keep piling on the points.

The Tigers have won only one SEC game this season, and that came against Kentucky, arguably the worst team in the conference. Auburn is averaging just 16.0 points per game in SEC play; just Oklahoma and Kentucky average fewer. That doesn't bode well against a Texas A&M defense with a nasty front four and multiple Sunday-level players. I realize this is a trap game for the Aggies, who have an enormous matchup against Texas next week, but the Tigers may be caught looking ahead to next week also. A&M has so much to play for; I expect the Aggies will give their best effort.

The Beavers are fading badly to the finish, having lost five straight games. Over their last three games, they've averaged just 6.7 points a game and have been beaten by 25.3 points. Meanwhile the Cougars are bowl-eligible for the eighth time in the last nine seasons. The weather forecast calls for rain on Saturday, and that favors the team that wants to be there—Washington State.

There are two main reasons why I like the Hoosiers in this massive Big Ten showdown. First, the season-ending Achilles injury to Buckeyes center Seth McLaughlin is huge. He was playing at an all-conference level, and the timing of his injury—in the middle of the week—only makes replacing him more difficult. Second, Indiana knows that even if loses on Saturday, a close loss could still earn it a spot in the College Football Playoffs. So even if this game gets out of hand, a backdoor cover is still a possibility. Give me the Hoosiers.