I know that taking the reigning national champs getting points at home should be an auto-bet. But this is not the same Michigan team as last year after losing its coach, quarterback, entire offensive line, multiple DBs and a slew of others to the NFL. The Wolverines sputtered offensively last week in a 30-10 win over Fresno State, and two of their touchdowns were either scored by, or set up by, the defense. Meanwhile, Texas will have a huge edge at quarterback with third-year starter Quinn Ewers running the show. In the end, I expect the Longhorns' speed on defense to frustrate the Wolverines all day and Ewers' pass-catchers to make just enough plays to cover. Texas wins 23-13.

Count us among the Michigan skeptics. Too much turnover from last year, with only four starters returning, not to mention HC Jim Harbaugh moving to the NFL and the Chargers; it's not the same team for Sherrone Moore in Ann Arbor. By comparison, last week's results vs. comparable Mountain West entries might be illuminating. Michigan was involved in a real scrap with Fresno State, which was trailing by just 6 midway into the 4th Q. Meanwhile, Texas boat-raced Colorado State 52-0 in Austin. Last year, a similar Texas team behind QB Quinn Ewers went into Tuscaloosa in the second week and took down Nick Saban's Alabama. If our read is correct, this task won't be quite as hard for Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns. Play Texas

This seems like a big overreaction. This line was at opened at 3.5 and has climbed up four points after week one. Michigan still has one of the best defenses in the country with a great home field atmosphere. Since 2000, the Wolverines are 0-5 SU and 2-2-1 ATS as a home underdog when the line is seven, or more. Michigan’s offense may not be what is what last season, but they’re going to rely on their defense. The Longhorns also don’t have the running game like they did in year’s past.

When was the last time the Wolverines were 7-point underdogs in The Big House? While I believe Michigan has the dogs on defense to keep them in contention in most games, I just don't see its offense scoring enough to keep up with Quinn Ewers and Texas. If you like physical play, be sure to tune in and watch the Texas OL matchup against the Michigan DL. This game could get ugly at times, but in the end I like the Longhorns by 10+.

Feels like a sucker line, but I'm feeling like a sucker. Michigan's offense was ugly last week, but the defense is still elite, and the Wolverines are playing at home. This line is a gross overreaction.

Making this pick has me cringing a bit. This isn't an Iowa game for goodness sakes! But I trust Michigan's usually elite unit to keep the potent Longhorns down a bit. Dating back to 2022, Michigan has given up 17 points or less in 14 of their last 16 home games. The Longhorns will score more, but not that much more. Texas 23, Michigan 16.

I would love nothing more than for Michigan -- the "Cheaters of the West" -- to get poleaxed in the Big House, but I don't think U-M should be getting +7.5 in only the second all-time meeting between bluebloods. This figures to be a low-scoring, defensive battle -- and you generally take a TD-plus in those. Arguably the best defensive player in the country is Wolverines cornerback Will Johnson, who had a pick-six in the opener. If he has another off Quinn Ewers (or Arch Manning), Johnson becomes a legit Heisman contender a la Charles Woodson. Texas also lost two of its top three running backs during the season ramp-up due to injuries.

Michigan only returned five starters from last year and one of them is the punter. They're still young to get off the ground against Fresno State while Texas killed Colorado State 52-0. But Michigan has one thing going for them: the defense, the home crowd, and old Michigan pride. That defense will slow Texas down and maybe not win but they'll keep it close. The only way that Michigan has a chance to win is to not get in a scoring duel with Texas. Play ugly, play with the chance to win. Under the best play.