I was holding out, hoping to lock this pick in at 56+ like I got last week, but it's not happening. Georgia Tech will be one of the ACC's best offenses, and Florida State will be upper echelon by the end of the season as well. In this neutral site game, however, I expect the defenses to shine early. The Noles may have the best defensive line in the nation, and I expect all four starters to be NFL Draft picks. On the other side new Jackets DC Tyler Santucci is a massive upgrade. I don't think this is a slam dunk, but I do expect the under to hit in Dublin.

If this were at Georgia Tech instead of a neutral site, the play would likely be to take the points with what should be a competitive Georgia Tech club that held its ground last year against top-level opponents But look for the talent-rich Seminoles, eager to wash the sour end to last season from their memories, to pull away in the second half and cover this number.

Georgia Tech is one of the most experienced teams in America with 17 returning starters from its 2023 team that went 7-6 and won a bowl game. The Yellow Jackets project to have one of the top offensive units in the country, and I actually like Jackets QB Haynes King more than his FSU adversary (DJ Uiagalelei) in this matchup. The Noles will have a talent advantage here (and four returning OL starters), but GT has the experience and continuity advantage. In a neutral site game like this one, experience shouldn't be downplayed. I like the Noles to win, but the Jackets to cover.

Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King accounted for 37 touchdowns last season, but he also threw a whopping 16 interceptions and fumbled three times. FSU, with its fierce defensive front and strong secondary, brings a defense that will force mistakes. Especially because King is more comfortable throwing against zone coverage. Look for the Seminoles to capitalize on turnovers and use their dynamic run game to pull away and cover.

ACC insiders are more guarded than might be expected regarding Florida State, even after the Noles rolled thru the regular season as an unbeaten last fall. No more Jordan Travis at QB, and there are skeptics regarding successor DJ Uigalelei, most recently at Oregon State but previously at Clemson, where his work mostly undershot expectations. Besides, there is ample evidence that Georgia Tech will be a tough out in Ireland, especially as the Yellow Jackets are 9-3 vs. the line as an underdog since Brent Key took over from Geoff Collins as head coach. Former A&M transfer and dual-threat Haynes King is also back at QB on the Flats after accounting for 35 TDs (26 pass, 9 run) in 2023. Play Georgia Tech (at Dublin)

Last year's Florida State team was a pass-heavy team, but that's not likely to be the case this year. An overhaul in offensive personnel should lead to a change in approach, and this line hasn't adjusted enough.

Both of these defenses have matchup-specific advantages that could lead to less possessions and lower scoring. For Florida State, it's a transition to a run-heavy approach behind an experienced offensive line with two stellar backs in Roydell Williams and Lawrance Toafili. Then on the other side, Georgia Tech returns a ton of experience from last year's offense but will be facing arguably the best pass-rushing duo in the country in Pat Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. Georgia Tech's new DC Tyler Santucci should have a great game plan for DJU, but the Noles are running the rock it's going to be hard to keep them from milking this game away.

Quite simply, I just don't trust new Seminoles QB, DJ Uiagalelei. The former top recruit just hasn't lived up to the hype in his career and is now on to his third different school. Maybe he proves me wrong and takes Florida State's offense to an elite level like Jordan Travis did last year. But I'm going to bet against that. Look for Georgia Tech to make it fairly interesting throughout in a lower-scoring than expected contest in Ireland. Florida State 27, Georgia Tech 16.

I held out here hoping for 14 but instead the spread is going the other way with some books down to 11, so we'll take this now for the neutral-site season opener in Dublin. FSU returns just eight total starters from last year's unbeaten ACC championship team that got hosed by the CFP committee. The Noles' No. 1 QB, RB and top three pass-catchers are all gone as is stud pass-rusher Jared Verse. Georgia Tech brings nearly everyone back on offense so covering here will be a matter of how well new defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci handles that side of the ball -- which wasn't good in 2023.

We have Florida State playing Georgia Tech in the opener in Ireland. Florida State looks to be a possible playoff team but only return 10 players from last year's squad that went 13-0 before badly losing the bowl game with a limited squad. They only return four players on offense and that's going to be where I think their problem is. Bad spring practice notes, bad quarterbacking. It's a lot of points to give a team with 16 starters returning that finished well last year against a brand new squad that hasn't been together including the quarterback DJ Uiagalelei and a whole new wide receiver core and new running backs. Georgia Tech to cover, possibly win.