Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell suffered a major knee injury last year, which left him sidelined for the most of this season as well. Mitchell’s road to recovery was not easy, but his teammates & coaches were so impressed by his dedication and work ethic, that he was voted the Raven’s “Ed Block Courage Award” winner, exemplifying sportsmanship and resilience. Mitchell is now back and returning to form, flashing some of his signature speed and explosiveness in Baltimore’s dominant win over the Texans on Christmas. Now healthy, Mitchell should get an increased workload, especially if the Ravens are leading early on against the lowly Browns. If Baltimore benches their starters in the 2nd half, +260 odds on this could end up being a steal. .5u play.

Risky maybe to look over in a Brownies game after they haven't scored beyond single digits in the last three. But expect a bit more offense from Cleveland on Saturday with Bailey Zappe in at QB. Not necessarily a Zappe endorsement, but the Browns don't score when they go with DTR, whose marginal improvement over Jameis Winston was that he was unlikely to make as many mistakes. Zappe should at least be able to move the ball more consistently, though we expect Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to do the bulk of the work this afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium to wrap up the AFC North and avenge that 29-24 defeat at Cleveland October 27 (the high point of Winston's season). Play Browns-Ravens Over

The Browns are a mess, having lost their last five games, failing to cover all five, and scoring a combined 16 points in their last three games. This week they go with quarterback Bailey Zappe who has little experience with the offense. They just got them but they think he's better for this situation than their guys. The future? The Browns beat the Ravens 29-24 at 7-point dogs on October 27th and the game went over. The over is the thing I'm looking at here despite the Browns going under four straight games. The Ravens have gone over 12 of their 16 games. This one gets over as well.

I'm a little hesitant to play this now as it might go higher, but yowza 20.5 points. Yes, the Ravens need to win for the AFC North title but also will be playing on Wild-Card Weekend, so you'd think they get up big and call off the dogs and get Lamar Jackson & Co. out of there. I have to play something at this number on principle, and I still will believe it's the right play even if it's Baltimore 48, Browns 3. NFL faves of at least 20 points are 3-7 ATS in their past 10. As Mike Tierney pointed out as well, NFL dogs by at least 13.5 points are 3-3 ATS this season. And we are way over 13.5.

This line opened at 17.5, which would have made it the largest figure of the season. Yet it has continued to rise to an outrageous level. As one-sided as the matchup appears, no such spread is valid unless the underdog’s defense is atrocious. Cleveland’s is decent. Here are the total points scored in the Browns’ last four games: 41, 38, 30 and 23. The Browns are being vague about their QB plans. Whoever is behind center won’t matter. Their points ceiling is head-scraping low, so it will be up to the D to deliver a cover. NFL ‘dogs by at least 13.5 points are 3-3 ATS this season. One more thing: The teams' first meeting was won by Cleveland.

He's not going to have to play this whole game to get this done. He has an MVP potentially at stake and a bad Browns D will be without many key players. Lamar has hit this in 2 of last 3 games vs CLE and 5 straight this season and 9 of the last 10 games.

All he has done is catch a TD in 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 games. He is the RZ guy. He has 10 TDs in the last 11 games. He hadn't scored a TD in nearly a calendar year before the first game with the Browns in last October, when he began this torrid run. Lamar takes care of his guy here.

R.J. White knows a lot more football than I do, but when he posted Under 11.5 I almost fainted. 11.5!!?? Not sure I even would have noticed otherwise as I'm not a huge team totals guy. I can't say for sure this is the smallest team total I've ever seen as I was a pup when the 1985 Bears dominated, but wowza. Yep, the Browns have been in single digits for three straight games but this feels like blowout central and I mean if Cleveland scores one garbage TD, we probably win. Or one defensive/special teams TD. Also end of season, I expect some trick plays, etc.

We're going back to the well with this pick after the success it has had in recent weeks, as the Browns have scored in single digits in three straight games against opponents with playoff implications on the line. That's the case here, as the Ravens are fully motivated to lock up the division. The one worry is that the Ravens take the foot off the gas late if they're up big and allow a garbage-time TD, so Browns 1H TT Under 6.5 would be the preferred play, but I like both.

The Browns are quite possibly fielding largely back-ups here. The Ravens have everything to play for, with a division at stake, and Lamar Jackson will light this up for the three quarters or so he plays, seeking a 3rd MVP. In 3 games since their bye Ravens out-scoring opponents 55-19 in the first half. Browns have trailed at half in 7 of last 8 games and trailed by 8+ points in 4 of them. They are probably rotating terrible QBs and likely without top 2 RBs, top TE, top CB, several OL and possibly Myles Garrett as well. Ravens will try to thrash them quickly.

The Ravens have been outstanding ATS in the first half. They have all the motivation in the world and are facing a Browns team that has mustered 16 points total over the past three games. Baltimore also remembers losing at Cleveland, and will want to leave no doubt against its division rival. The Ravens have averaged 18.3 points in the first half of their last three games. Cleveland could use both Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback.