The Bills are massive two touchdown favorites on the spread, but I’m willing to lay it. I prefer the alt spread of -13.5 at -120, shop around for that. The Bills are still playing for the #1 seed, and assuming they play motivated, I don’t see how the Patriots hang with them. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in eight straight games. Buffalo will be without several defensive starters, but I’m not sure it will matter much against a Patriots team that has failed to score 20 points in any road game this season. This wide line seems like oddsmakers attempting to sway you off the Bills. I’ll lay it.

Ninety points scored the past two weeks. Thirty-plus points in every home game this year. Sure, the Bills are a juggernaut offensively. Here's a hunch they are subject to a letdown, even against a rival. Mix in temperatures in the low teens, and a lower-than-expected score that would magnify the sizable spread is in the cards. Pats QB Drake Maye is good for at least one touchdown throw; he last was kept out of the end zone seven games ago. For what it's worth, New England has received this many points just once before in three decades -- and easily covered in the game last year versus Buffalo.

With the extreme cold in Buffalo, look for the Bills to go run-heavy and use all their running backs. This has blowout potential, which would only increase Ray Davis' opportunities. He got seven carries last week and he got 11 in the blowout win over San Francisco.

FanDuel. Hunter Henry has stayed under this line in 10/14 games, including each of the last Seven. 8.1 average depth of target, and he isn’t a YAC threat at 4.2 per reception. The Bills defense keeps everything in front of them with the third lowest aDOT allowed (6.8 yards), and they allow the 9th fewest receiving yards to tight ends in general. Having Matt Milano back healthy is also a massive boost to their tight-end defense, as he excels in coverage.

The Bills have gone Over their team total in 12 of 14 games, and they have scored 30 or more in each of their home games. The Patriots have given up huge scoring games to much worse offenses, including allowing 31 or more points to Jacksonville, Miami and Houston. Buffalo's injury report tilts heavily toward defensive players, with wideout Curtis Samuel (ribs) the only offensive player questionable.

The Bills staked their claim as the best team in the league by beating the Lions, but they have a number of defenders playing through injury for a unit that has allowed nearly 1,000 yards the last two weeks combined. The Patriots offense isn't at the same caliber as those they've played recently, but this is also a foot-off-the-gas spot against what should be an easy opponent. With this line moving from -11.5 on the lookahead, I think there's value in playing the Bills to not be at peak performance and win this one by 10-13 instead of blowing out the Pats.

Kid is struggling and has thrown a pick in 6 straight games. This atmosphere will be nuts. I still see value here at this price and it won't be here for long.

This is almost an auto-play for me now. Bills pushing for the 1 seed, playing balls out football and the MVP candidate leading the way. Rushing TD in 5 straight games. Has 8 rushing TDs in that span. 5 in the last 2 weeks. They get in goal-to-go situations, he is scoring. Period.

I don't see "sharp" Pats money moving this line in my favor. So I'm grabbing now before this grows. BUF is 7-3 ATS as a favorite, covering by 8.85 PPG. They have 2nd best overall cover margin in NFL, have rolled up 30 points in 8 straight games and NE's D is falling apart allowing 29.25/G over the last 4. Pats have lost by 21 (NYJ!), 20 (HOU), 16 (JAX!), 19 (MIA) and 13 (AZ). This margin of defeat is not new to them. Josh Allen is 4-4-1 as a favorite of 14+ points, so it's not new to him either. He pads his MVP case here.